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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Scooby The Scoutd 4y 15 | K J Crocker — 16% R142 W23 P78 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 38 (2) | 27 (4) | 39 (1) | 28 (5) | 23 (5) | 40 (1) | 34 (2) | 27 (5) | 26 (5) | 48 (5) | 52 | 51 | 28 | 51 | 35 | 41 | 4 | 5/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Getup Me Charvad 4y 16 | A Welch — 15% R313 W47 P159 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 32 (1) | 23 (6) | 27 (3) | 28 (3) | 20 (6) | 30 (3) | 66 (4) | 35 (5) | 28 (5) | 32 (4) | 74 | 35 | 37 | 47 | 39 | 44 | 3 | 7/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Pavilion Miahd 2y 7 | D D Porter — 17% R521 W90 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | - | 27 (4) | 27 (3) | 25 (5) | 28 (3) | 31 (3) | 22 (4) | 35 (3) | 30 (3) | 27 (5) | 28 (5) | 69 | 41 | 11 | 41 | 31 | 38 | 5 | 4/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Longcroft Antd 1y 5 | C J Joyce — 7% R14 W1 P7 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | - | 31 (4) | 31 (4) | 36 (2) | 35 (2) | 23 (6) | 30 (4) | 33 (2) | - | - | - | 15 | 78 | 18 | 78 | 33 | 41 | 2 | 11/10F | |
| 5 | ▶ Graigues Downeyb 3y 5 | A D Scott — 15% R39 W6 P20 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | - | 30 (3) | 37 (2) | 38 (5) | 41 (6) | 54 (2) | 67 (2) | 48 (3) | 44 (5) | 66 (4) | 36 (4) | 5 | 46 | 30 | 43 | 45 | 40 | 1 | 9/2 | |
| 6 | ▶ Twolegsofourd 2y 8 | J M Liles — 19% R423 W79 P222 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 34 (3) | 31 (3) | 20 (6) | 25 (5) | 41 (1) | 31 (4) | 28 (2) | 32 (4) | 42 (3) | - | 27 | 29 | 22 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 6 | 7/1 | |
The model's selection, Graigues Downey holds the highest performance score in the race at 45 — comfortably ahead of the next-rated runner — and trainer A D Scott has a 27% strike rate at Towcester, the strongest of any handler on this race card today. These are compelling credentials on paper. However, the structural and form concerns are significant. First, trap five is the DEAD position at Towcester 270m D2, winning at just 13.11% from 267 runs — a large, reliable sample that confirms this is a structurally weak starting box for a 270m race where every box position matters immediately. Second, his three most recent runs have all been at 500m A-grade (A4 on March 21, A3 on March 10, OR on March 1) — a completely different discipline in terms of distance and grade. His 270m D1 form from February (16.06, 16.23, 16.25 from D1 company) showed genuine ability at the shorter trip, but that was over a month ago and at a higher grade level. Stepping back to 270m from the 500m A-grade circuit, in a dead trap, at D2 level — this is a race he should have the quality to win, but the structural and form-recency factors create meaningful doubt. Trap suitability of just 5 (the lowest in the field for his draw) confirms the model's own data identifies the T5 position as a poor fit.
AI PICK. The strongest case in the race when form recency, trip-specific credentials, and trap structural position are weighted together. Recent D2 winner at Towcester 270m, competing from a sensible draw. The model's pick has the higher raw score but is stepping back from 500m A-grade racing with a dead trap to navigate.
Statistical dark horse with trial concerns. High composite and trap suitability, but recent form reliability is compromised by excessive trial appearances. One genuine D2 run (3rd) is insufficient to build a strong case. Monitor rather than lead with.
The dog in the best structural trap but with insufficient individual quality to benefit from it. Not a selection; the T3 advantage here is a trap characteristic, not a runnable angle with this particular dog.
TRIAL WARNING. Cannot be assessed with confidence due to trial-heavy form profile. One genuine D2 result provides a framework but is insufficient for a reliable selection. The track and distance fit is excellent on paper; the form trail is not trusted.
Tail-ender. No realistic prospect of running into the money in this company based on recent D2 performances. The D3 win is noted but insufficient to bridge the gap to D2 level competitors here.
T3 DOMINANT, T5 DEAD at Towcester 270m D2. With 267–390 runs across these traps, these structural signals are reliable. However, the T3 runner (Pavilion Miah) is the lowest performer in the field, which partially decouples the positional advantage from the individual outcome. The structural headwind for the predicted pick (T5) is severe at this distance where box position is decisive. AI Pick triggered in favour of T1 — the dog with the most recent winning form at this exact track and distance.
T3: 25.90% (390 runs — DOMINANT) | T5: 13.11% (267 runs — DEAD) | T1–T6 full breakdown available in ML dataset
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.