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@NewcastleDogs On Twitter Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Deelish Divab 3y 18 | J T Edgar — 17% R484 W84 P270 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 18 | - | 73 (1) | 52 (5) | 67 (1) | 68 (1) | 45 (2) | 47 (5) | 69 (1) | 59 (3) | 56 (3) | 44 (5) | 21 | 33 | 27 | 22 | 51 | 42 | 6 | 9/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Swift Zenb 3y 17 | M Gray — 18% R55 W10 P25 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 34 | - | 72 (1) | 60 (2) | 62 (2) | 42 (5) | 49 (5) | 44 (5) | 52 (3) | 40 (5) | 17 (3) | 52 (4) | 52 | 48 | 28 | 38 | 55 | 52 | 5 | 4/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Logibearb 2y 23 | P Lithgow — 20% R25 W5 P16 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | - | 46 (6) | 43 (5) | 51 (4) | 55 (2) | 53 (3) | 53 (3) | 56 (3) | 72 (1) | 56 (4) | 57 (4) | 51 | 42 | 24 | 30 | 58 | 52 | 4 | 3/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Texas Bonnieb 3y 12 | J J Fenwick — 19% R505 W95 P289 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | - | 95 (1) | 82 (2) | 61 (3) | 64 (1) | 49 (3) | 59 (3) | 55 (4) | 47 (4) | 57 (2) | 59 (2) | 18 | 34 | 31 | 39 | 56 | 47 | 3 | 7/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Fabulous Myokib 3y 12 | J T Edgar — 17% R484 W84 P270 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 75 | - | 51 (5) | 76 (1) | 57 (3) | 55 (4) | 62 (2) | 58 (3) | 54 (5) | 62 (3) | 62 (2) | 76 (1) | 55 | 40 | 34 | 21 | 62 | 54 | 2 | 2/1F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Harness Bellb 2y 18 | J J Fenwick — 19% R505 W95 P289 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 70 | - | 87 (3) | 78 (4) | 82 (2) | 62 (3) | 73 (5) | 52 (5) | 76 (1) | 75 (1) | 63 (2) | 58 (3) | 49 | 58 | 44 | 56 | 64 | 61 | 1 | 11/4 | - | |
Harness Bell is the clear standout in this 640m handicap. She leads on composite (61), performance (64), suitability mean (52 — field's best by 14 points), and has the best speed rating at 70. Her Closer profile (CS 100) is perfectly suited to a staying trip where front-runners inevitably weaken. The 640m HP form is excellent: P5, P1, P1, P2, P3 — two wins and consistent places at these exact conditions. Track suit 58, distance suit 56, trap suit 49 all confirm she belongs at this venue, distance, and grade. T6 wins 30.3% at these conditions from 33 runs — a strong structural position. Trainer Fenwick at 16% is weak but the dog's own form and ratings override that. This is genuine convergence: best rated, best suited, proven CD form, drawn in a strong position, with the ideal pace profile for the distance.
DANGER: Field's best speed (75) from strong T5 draw (25%, 40r). Sets the pace and could hold if tempo is slow. But Fader (CS 17) at 640m staying trip is asking a lot.
Strong recent CD form (P1, P2 at 640m HP) but drawn in DEAD T2 (8.57%, 35r). Speed 34 is field's lowest. The draw and speed deficit are severe structural headwinds.
Closer with a recent 640m HP win. But T3 structurally weak (12.2%, 41r) and moderate ratings place him behind pick and main danger. Finishes strongly but from too far back.
Closer with decent speed and consistent 640m HP places (P2,P2,P4). But T4 dead at 11.76% (34r) with trap suit 18. Needs the draw to play no part — unlikely.
T1 is structurally strong (33.33% but only 27 runs) but perf 51 and speed 18 are both field-worst. Fader at 640m will lead then weaken dramatically. Hard to make a case despite the draw.
HANDICAP: trap bias de-weighted due to staggered starts. R1 composite wins 28.75% — good separation confirms model predictive value at this distance. Speed and closing ability primary factors at 640m. T6 at 30.3% aligns with the pick.
T1:33.33%(27r) T2:8.57%(35r) T3:12.2%(41r) T4:11.76%(34r) T5:25%(40r) T6:30.3%(33r)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 640m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Deelish Diva | 65 | 16 | Fader |
2Swift Zen | 50 | 35 | All-Rounder |
3Logibear | 50 | 66 | Closer |
4Texas Bonnie | 45 | 65 | Closer |
5Fabulous Myoki | 69 | 17 | Fader |
6Harness Bell | 0 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 640m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (640m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 480m | 640m | 942m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deelish Diva | 0.620 | 0.640 | — |
| 2 | Swift Zen | 0.628 | 0.638 | — |
| 3 | Logibear | 0.626 | 0.632 | — |
| 4 | Texas Bonnie | 0.618 | 0.630 | — |
| 5 | Fabulous Myoki | 0.616 | 0.623 | — |
| 6 | Harness Bell | — | 0.625 | 0.634 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.