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Newcastle Greyhound Stadium Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ More Snooze Timeb 2y 8 | C L Hardy — 20% R206 W41 P126 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | 63 | 50 (4) | 71 (1) | 49 (3) | 57 (3) | 67 (6) | 48 (1) | 64 (4) | 62 (2) | 53 (3) | - | 56 | 46 | 14 | 39 | 40 | 42 | 3 | 7/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ Alnwick Queenb 3y 9 | A Harrison — 20% R512 W101 P310 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 71 | 36 (1) | 49 (3) | 49 (3) | 48 (3) | 43 (5) | 23 (2) | 42 (6) | 35 (4) | 24 (5) | - | 53 | 53 | 32 | 37 | 41 | 43 | 1 | 5/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Wirtz Classb 3y 17 | J T Edgar — 16% R476 W78 P268 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 38 | 48 (2) | 33 (5) | 71 (1) | 46 (5) | 49 (1) | 41 (3) | 34 (6) | 38 (5) | 44 (3) | 61 (1) | 27 | 30 | 23 | 27 | 50 | 42 | 5 | 7/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Swift Sandcastleb 1y 7 | M Gray — 16% R56 W9 P26 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 34 | 64 (1) | 36 (6) | 44 (4) | 50 (4) | 42 (5) | 51 (3) | 70 (1) | 43 (5) | 38 (5) | 26 (6) | 24 | 65 | - | 61 | 26 | 34 | 6 | 7/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Drombeg Novab 1y 5 | J T Edgar — 16% R476 W78 P268 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | 33 | 43 (6) | 40 (4) | 39 (4) | 44 (5) | 43 (4) | 42 (5) | 33 (4) | 41 (5) | 47 (4) | - | 38 | 40 | - | 34 | 45 | 42 | 4 | 11/8F | |
| 6 | ▶ Elemore Poppyb 3y 310 | C L Hardy — 20% R206 W41 P126 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 70 | 32 (5) | 41 (6) | 47 (5) | 71 (6) | 54 (2) | 79 (4) | 46 (2) | 39 (6) | 73 (6) | - | 45 | 52 | - | 36 | 39 | 41 | 2 | 7/1 | |
Alnwick Queen leads the composite at 43 by the narrowest of margins — just 1 point above three dogs tied at 42. Her edge comes from suitability: track 53, trap 53, distance 37, class 32 for a mean of 44, the field's best. She's a Fader (EP 72, CS 3) with an excellent bend rating of 71 — she'll lead through the bends and gain ground with that turn ability. But CS 3 at 480m means a near-certain collapse in the straight. Her A7 form reads P5, P1/IT, P3, P1, P3 — she can win at this grade but inconsistently. T2 at 15.76% (330 runs) is a structurally WEAK position, below average. Trainer Harrison at 20% is moderate. The composite lead is driven by suitability in a race where composite rankings are actually inverted — R3 wins more than R1 at A7 Newcastle 480m. This is the model's pick but the structural data suggests looking elsewhere.
AI PICK: Field's best perf (50), Closer (CS 93) in structurally strong T3 (20.87%). In a race where R3 beats R1 historically, the third-ranked composite may actually be better placed. Edgar at 22% is joint-best trainer. The structural case is compelling.
Third Fader in a field with three pace-setters. EP 62 gets him involved early but CS 10 guarantees a collapse. Inconsistent form (P3,P6,P2,P5,P6) and below-average T1 draw. Will fade from a mid-pace position to also-ran.
Best speed (60) and pure Closer (CS 100) but T5 is DEAD (14.5%, 338r) and EP 27 means starting last. The closing tools are there but the structural position is the worst in the field. Needs a miracle pace collapse.
DOMINANT T6 draw (22.92%, 240r) — the best structural position. But perf 39 and Fader CS 0 mean she'll lead and collapse. The trap is right but the dog isn't good enough to hold. Another pace-setter rather than a winner.
Best suitability (mean 38, track 65, distance 61) from strong T4 draw (20.39%). Closer (CS 90) suits Newcastle. But perf 26 is the field's worst — the ability deficit is too large for any structural advantage to overcome. Needs multiple grades of improvement.
INVERTED composite rank data — R3 wins 24.21% vs R1 at 19.15%. The model's own data says its rankings are BACKWARDS at A7. Trap position is far more predictive than composite score. T6 DOMINANT at 22.92% from 240 runs. The pick (T2) is in a structurally weak trap at 15.76%. This race demands structural-first analysis.
T1:16.54%(272r) T2:15.76%(330r) T3:20.87%(321r) T4:20.39%(363r) T5:14.5%(338r) T6:22.92%(240r)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1More Snooze Time | 62 | 10 | Fader |
2Alnwick Queen | 72 | 3 | Fader |
3Wirtz Class | 34 | 93 | Closer |
4Swift Sandcastle | 38 | 90 | Closer |
5Drombeg Nova | 27 | 100 | Closer |
6Elemore Poppy | 71 | 0 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.