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Arena Racing Company Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Nanna Bettyb 2y 24 | C L Hardy — 19% R198 W38 P121 Trainer form — last 3 months | 98 | 50 | 43 | 70 (2) | 59 (3) | 80 (1) | 80 (1) | 47 (5) | 76 (1) | 52 (4) | 45 (6) | 10 (6) | 76 (2) | 66 | 54 | 25 | 48 | 51 | 53 | 2 | 8/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Bramble Paulinab 3y 26 | C L Hardy — 19% R198 W38 P121 Trainer form — last 3 months | 56 | 49 | 52 | 55 (4) | 26 (4) | 25 (5) | 56 (5) | 66 (2) | 66 (2) | 34 (3) | 25 (5) | 38 (2) | 61 (2) | 31 | 39 | 23 | 36 | 56 | 49 | 4 | 5/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Deelish Beautyb 2y 17 | B J Mcphillips — 20% R56 W11 P27 Trainer form — last 3 months | 77 | 46 | 61 | 73 (1) | 45 (5) | 46 (6) | 46 (5) | 79 (1) | 76 (1) | 24 (1) | 40 (5) | 23 (6) | - | 10 | 57 | 30 | 51 | 44 | 42 | 5 | 9/4 | |
| 4 | ▶ Return Packaged 2y 38 | S Roberts — 19% R181 W34 P80 Trainer form — last 3 months | 70 | 52 | 54 | 57 (3) | 56 (4) | 59 (5) | 65 (3) | 66 (4) | 62 (3) | 63 (4) | 64 (5) | 59 (2) | 73 (3) | 33 | 39 | - | 39 | 60 | 52 | 1 | 9/4 | |
| 5 | ▶ Slipalong Blockd 3yN/R 22 | J J Fenwick — 19% R494 W94 P284 Trainer form — last 3 months | 65 | 49 | 39 | 35 (6) | 60 (3) | 53 (5) | 62 (4) | 61 (4) | 78 (1) | 75 (1) | 46 (4) | 54 (4) | 47 (5) | 21 | 41 | 34 | 27 | 58 | 48 | - | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Alnwick Riverd 3y 6 | A Harrison — 19% R510 W99 P304 Trainer form — last 3 months | 77 | 54 | 46 | 61 (4) | 56 (3) | 49 (4) | 50 (6) | 76 (1) | 77 (1) | 63 (2) | 62 (3) | 75 (1) | 55 (3) | 33 | 34 | 46 | 30 | 62 | 52 | 3 | 15/8F | |
Nanna Betty leads the composite at 53, driven by the field's best suitability package: track 54, distance 48, trap 66, class 25 for a mean of 48. That trap suit of 66 from T1 is a powerful individual signal — she has excellent form from this draw. T1 wins 20.62% at A4 conditions from 291 runs, the second-best structural position. Her All-Rounder profile (EP 52, CS 46) suits Newcastle's fair layout perfectly — she'll sit mid-pack through the bends, saving ground on the rail, and finish steadily through the straight. The form is inconsistent: P4/A4, P6/A3, P6/IT before winning trials. Trainer Hardy at 10% is a weakness. But the composite is driven by suitability data that historically predicts well at A4 (R1 wins 21.65%), and the T1+trap suit 66 combination is a strong structural alignment.
DANGER: Field's best performance (62) with the most consistent pace profile (pCon 91). Always involved at A4 (P3,P2,P5,P4,P3). But T6 neutral-to-weak and lower suitability keep him behind the structurally advantaged pick.
Extreme Fader (EP 95, CS 0, pCon 0) who'll lead by lengths before weakening dramatically from bend 3. Perf 60 is strong but the pace profile guarantees regression. Sets the race up for others at Newcastle's fair 480m.
Improving form (P2,P1,P1 recently) from decent T2 draw (19.89%, 352r). But Fader (CS 23) at Newcastle 480m will weaken in the second half. The improving trajectory suggests she's going the right way but the pace profile limits her ceiling.
Recent A4 winner with Closer profile suited to Newcastle's long straight. But T5 below average (16.24%), low trap suit (21), and modest speed (49) limit his chances. Needs a strong pace collapse to feature.
Best draw (T3 at 21.28%, 376r) with decent suitability (mean 37, track 57) and Closer profile for Newcastle. But perf 44 is the field's worst — the structural advantage of T3 can't fully compensate for a 18-point performance deficit to the leader.
Moderate separation (R1 vs R3 = 7.42pp) — composite rankings have reasonable predictive value at A4. T1 and T3 are the marginally favoured positions. Nanna Betty's T1 draw and top composite align with the structural data.
T1:20.62%(291r) T2:19.89%(352r) T3:21.28%(376r) T4:18.49%(357r) T5:16.24%(234r) T6:16.51%(212r)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Nanna Betty | 52 | 46 | All-Rounder |
2Bramble Paulina | 58 | 23 | Fader |
3Deelish Beauty | 43 | 68 | Closer |
4Return Package | 95 | 0 | Fader |
5Slipalong Block | 43 | 64 | Closer |
6Alnwick River | 48 | 54 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.