| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tromora Spiceb 2y 24 | M Shaw — 0% R17 W0 P7 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 44 | 40 (2) | 43 (2) | 44 (4) | 24 (3) | 38 (5) | 31 (1) | 19 (4) | 20 (6) | 23 (4) | 31 (1) | 39 | 48 | - | 25 | 27 | 31 | 5 | 4/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Blue Woodyb 2y 15 | K Billingham-hine — 18% R605 W109 P343 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 51 | 38 (3) | 36 (3) | 41 (4) | 65 (2) | 42 (4) | 41 (4) | 44 (4) | 44 (3) | 57 (3) | - | 31 | 47 | 30 | 29 | 46 | 42 | 2 | 9/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Swift Jamb 2y 14 | M Shaw — 0% R17 W0 P7 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 61 | 46 (2) | 35 (4) | 49 (3) | 52 (1) | 46 (2) | 45 (2) | 27 (6) | 53 (2) | 51 (2) | 27 (3) | 47 | 41 | 18 | 71 | 35 | 41 | 3 | 8/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Blarney Castled 3y 3 | C Jones — 12% R301 W36 P144 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 49 | 35 (5) | 32 (3) | 47 (2) | 35 (4) | 46 (2) | 41 (4) | 47 (3) | 52 (2) | 53 (1) | 34 (4) | 35 | 39 | 41 | 30 | 41 | 39 | 4 | 7/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Sugar Girl Dottyb 3y 25 | C S Fereday — 18% R458 W81 P226 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 51 | 49 (4) | 68 (1) | 63 (1) | 56 (2) | 55 (3) | 63 (2) | 63 (1) | 36 (6) | 47 (4) | 38 (5) | 17 | 43 | 42 | 37 | 47 | 42 | 1 | 10/11F | - | |
Sugar Girl Dotty is the pick on the basis of best performance, best speed, highest consistency, and strong current form. She's an All-Rounder (EP 51, CS 51, pace cons 90) — the most balanced and reliable pace profile in the field. Her performance P47 is the highest in the field, and her form trajectory shows sustained quality: 38→41→61→50→50, with three of the last four runs at 50+ including a peak of 61. That's the most consistent high-level form sequence of any runner. Speed 56 is comfortably the best in the field — 7 points ahead of the next best. At Monmore 480m, the All-Rounder profile is the optimal pace type — V3 Tier 2 wins 22.7% from 348 runs, the best of any pace category. She'll sit behind Swift Jam's early pace, sustain her effort through all four bends (pace cons 90), and have the speed and stamina to overhaul the Fader in the closing stages. CD form of 4,5,3,2,3,6 from six Monmore 480m starts is mixed — a second and two thirds but also a 6th. The concern is the T6 draw at 16.8% — below average — and the trap suitability of just 17, suggesting she doesn't handle T6 well. Suitability overall is decent: track 43, distance 37, class 42 (mean 35). Trainer Fereday at 14% is below threshold. Despite the T6 concerns, the quality gap — P47, speed 56, pace cons 90 — is decisive in a five-runner field where the main rival is an extreme closer relying on pace collapse.
DANGER: Second-best performance (P46) with extreme closing speed (CS 100) from the second-best trap (T2, 20.1%). Volatile form (62 then 37) but when he fires he's the best dog in the race. The EP 0 is the concern — needs total pace collapse rather than a gradual close. Genuine threat if Swift Jam fades sharply enough.
Most consistent runner (pace cons 96) but consistently poor — P27 with the last two figures at 16 and 15. The 14+ point performance gap to the field leaders is too large to bridge through consistency alone. Will run his race honestly but in rear division.
The structural case is strong: T3 at 26.8%, CD form 2,1,2,1, best suitability (mean 44). But the Fader profile (CS 20) means he leads and weakens, and P35 is well below the closers at P46-47. The T3 edge and CD form could hold up against weaker closers but Sugar Girl Dotty's consistency (pace cons 90) and Blue Woody's finishing speed are a step above what he's beaten before.
The 48 last time out and CD win/second show he's capable. But three 5th-place finishes from five Monmore 480m starts and a 17 in recent form reveal extreme inconsistency. When he fires (48) he's live for a place, but you can't trust which version turns up. Mid-division runner on average.
1,570 runs. T3 dominates at 26.8% from 254 runs. V3 Tier 2 (All-Rounders) win 22.7% (348r) — the best-performing pace profile in A8. Five runners with T5 vacant gives more room through bends.
T1:17.8% T2:20.1% T3:26.8% T4:17.8% T5:14.8% T6:16.8%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Tromora Spice | 49 | 50 | All-Rounder |
2Blue Woody | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Swift Jam | 57 | 20 | Fader |
4Blarney Castle | 50 | 46 | All-Rounder |
6Sugar Girl Dotty | 51 | 51 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 264m | 480m | 630m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tromora Spice | 0.612 | 0.618 | — |
| 2 | Blue Woody | — | 0.617 | 0.630 |
| 3 | Swift Jam | 0.609 | 0.617 | — |
| 4 | Blarney Castle | — | 0.618 | — |
| 6 | Sugar Girl Dotty | — | 0.611 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.