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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tommys Lunab 2y 26 | C S Fereday — 19% R454 W85 P228 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 52 | 51 (1) | 47 (1) | 25 (5) | 33 (4) | 40 (2) | 31 (3) | 17 (5) | 22 (4) | 24 (6) | 32 (1) | 37 | 31 | 11 | 23 | 29 | 29 | 5 | 2/1JF | |
| 2 | ▶ Still Momentb 3y 24 | C S Fereday — 19% R454 W85 P228 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 52 | 23 (6) | 34 (4) | 40 (1) | 46 (3) | 27 (1) | 37 (3) | 33 (3) | 31 (3) | 47 (4) | - | 43 | 25 | 15 | 18 | 36 | 33 | 2 | 3/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Paper Over Crackb 1y 23 | P A Curtin — 17% R295 W50 P167 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 36 | 36 (3) | 39 (4) | 28 (2) | 39 (6) | 40 (3) | 48 (3) | 46 (1) | 38 (1) | 37 (2) | - | 38 | 22 | 25 | 22 | 38 | 34 | 1 | 4/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Winterfield Rosab 1y 14 | C Jones — 13% R307 W39 P142 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 51 | 24 (3) | 21 (4) | 19 (6) | 33 (5) | 42 (2) | 31 (4) | 28 (5) | 40 (2) | 23 (6) | 48 (1) | 51 | 51 | 26 | 38 | 35 | 39 | 3 | 2/1JF | |
| 5 | ▶ Bombay Luckyd 4y 24 | P I Cowdrill — 14% R318 W45 P163 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 35 | 31 (4) | 29 (4) | 31 (3) | 34 (3) | 32 (2) | 31 (4) | 31 (3) | 30 (4) | 27 (5) | 32 (4) | 23 | 21 | 25 | 26 | 34 | 30 | 4 | 7/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Noduff Charlied 2yN/R 13 | C S Fereday — 19% R454 W85 P228 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 70 | 22 (4) | 16 (6) | 31 (6) | 30 (4) | 38 (5) | 17 (3) | 45 (6) | 42 (2) | 32 (2) | - | 3 | 35 | 22 | 33 | 33 | 30 | - | - | |
Paper Over Crack is a Closer (CS 76, pace cons 76) trained by P A Curtin who has a 22.6% win rate from 31 runs in Monmore 480m A10 — comfortably the best trainer in these conditions and a strong-tier signal. Her CD form is the standout in this field: 1,2,3,3,3,1 from six Monmore 480m starts — two wins and a second, proving she handles this venue and distance combination consistently. Her performance P38 is the joint-highest in the field, and while the form trajectory (46→33→33→32→20) shows a declining trend with a poor 20 last time, the same inconsistency pattern appeared before her last Monmore win. Suitability is reasonable: track 22, distance 22, trap 38, class 25 (mean 27). The Closer profile is well-suited to this race shape — with Noduff Charlie fading from the front, she'll pick up the pieces from mid-field. Speed 47 is below the leaders but the closing speed (CS 76) compensates at Monmore's fair bends where closers can make ground. The Curtin trainer edge and the proven CD record are the decisive factors — when the best trainer in the conditions has a dog with two CD wins from six starts, that combination demands respect.
DANGER: CD form of 1,2,3,4,3,4 is the strongest proven record at Monmore 480m in this field. Drawn T2 (20.7%) with trap suitability 43. The last-time 12 is concerning but the venue form and draw combination keep her in the danger slot.
Best trap (T1, 22.2%) and most consistent runner (pace cons 91) but the lowest performance rating in the field (P29) limits her ceiling. Will run honestly in mid-division without threatening the closers.
Best suitability in the field (mean 42) and decent speed (53) but back-to-back 13 and 16 perfs suggest a dog out of form. The structural profile says she should be competitive but the recent evidence says otherwise. Needs to bounce back before she can be trusted.
Strongest closer in the field (CS 83) with an improving form trajectory (25→36→29→49→47). But poor suitability (mean 24), weak draw (T5, 16.5%), and no trainer edge make him a secondary closer behind Paper Over Crack. Could pick up a place if the race falls right.
Spectacular early pace (EP 63, bend 70) but CS 5 is practically zero closing speed. Six Monmore 480m starts without a win tells the full story — he leads and fades. The closers will run through him in the final two bends. One to enjoy watching but not to back.
1,488 runs. T1 (22.2%) and T2 (20.7%) are the best traps — inside draws favoured. Speed R1 wins 23.7%, the highest of any rank metric. V3 Tier 1 24.8% (153r), Tier 2 20.1% (324r). P A Curtin 22.6% from 31 runs is top trainer.
T1:22.2% T2:20.7% T3:17.5% T4:18.4% T5:16.5% T6:16.3%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Tommys Luna | 51 | 51 | All-Rounder |
2Still Moment | 49 | 46 | All-Rounder |
3Paper Over Crack | 36 | 76 | Closer |
4Winterfield Rosa | 51 | 49 | All-Rounder |
5Bombay Lucky | 38 | 83 | Closer |
6Noduff Charlie | 63 | 5 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.