| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Longrange Cometd 2y 14 | C Jones — 13% R307 W39 P142 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 35 | 39 (3) | 30 (5) | 53 (1) | 19 (5) | 39 (4) | 46 (2) | 36 (4) | 37 (6) | 37 (3) | 34 (5) | 59 | 39 | - | 26 | 40 | 40 | 1 | 7/4F | |
| 2 | ▶ Pas Dalyd 1y 15 | C Jones — 13% R307 W39 P142 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 48 | 42 (3) | 53 (1) | 39 (3) | 31 (1) | 49 (1) | 39 (3) | 32 (4) | 38 (2) | 43 (2) | 40 (4) | 39 | 33 | 14 | 26 | 35 | 34 | 2 | 9/4 | |
| 3 | ▶ Durham Infernod 2y 28 | M J Russell — 14% R179 W25 P91 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 39 | 28 (5) | 31 (4) | 33 (2) | 47 (1) | 23 (5) | 28 (5) | 26 (6) | 29 (6) | 51 (1) | 43 (2) | 34 | 29 | - | 28 | 35 | 33 | 3 | 20/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Kilwest Barneyd 3y 5 | P I Cowdrill — 14% R318 W45 P163 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 51 | 31 (5) | 39 (2) | 48 (1) | 33 (3) | 23 (6) | 37 (4) | 37 (3) | 21 (3) | 26 (2) | 35 (4) | 25 | 16 | 37 | 28 | 28 | 26 | 6 | 5/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Outdoor Bonod 3y 15 | P I Cowdrill — 14% R318 W45 P163 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 63 | 35 (5) | 39 (4) | 33 (2) | 39 (3) | 30 (2) | 28 (6) | 33 (6) | 48 (4) | 39 (1) | - | 26 | 27 | 32 | 25 | 35 | 32 | 4 | 5/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Drumdoit Milod 3y 16 | J B Thompson — 19% R518 W97 P283 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 56 | 29 (5) | 41 (2) | 45 (2) | 38 (3) | 19 (6) | 32 (3) | 28 (5) | 40 (3) | 37 (4) | 45 (4) | 30 | 24 | 14 | 23 | 35 | 32 | 5 | 10/3 | |
Longrange Comet is the pick in this closer-heavy race based on the combination of best trap, best performance, best speed, and the strongest closing profile for the rail. He's a Closer (CS 71, pace cons 82) drawn T1 — the best trap at 21.9% from 205 runs. His performance P40 is the highest in the field by 5 points — a meaningful edge in a tightly-bunched A9 field. Speed 54 is also the best, giving him the raw pace to close through the final bends. His form trajectory has been declining: 54→42→14→18→23, which is concerning — the peak of 54 was five runs ago and he's been deteriorating since. However, the 14→18→23 sequence shows the decline has bottomed out and he may be starting to recover. CD form from six Monmore 480m starts (6,3,5,2,3,2) includes two seconds and two thirds — he consistently finds the frame without winning. Suitability is reasonable: track 39, distance 26, trap 59, class 0 (mean 31). Trap suitability of 59 is strong for T1, confirming he handles the rail draw well. Trainer Jones at 10% is below threshold — the main negative. In a race where three closers will all finish strongly, the inside-drawn closer with the best speed and trap suitability gets the nod. The rail saves ground through every bend, and at Monmore's fair 480m, that's a cumulative advantage.
DANGER: Fastest speed in the field (57) in a race that sets up perfectly for closers. If the pace is strong and the Fader fades dramatically, his raw closing speed could carry him past the others. But T2 at 16.5% is the worst trap, CD form (three consecutive 4ths) suggests he's always close but never quite gets there, and the erratic form makes him hard to trust.
Two Monmore 480m wins but four 5th/6th finishes from six CD starts — extreme inconsistency. Speed 46 is 8-11 points behind the other closers, meaning they'll close faster. T3 draw (20.2%) is decent but in a three-closer race, the slowest closer is the least likely to prevail. Depends on the other two misfiring.
Lowest performance (P28), worst track suitability (16), and poor CD form (4,6,6) make this a straightforward opposition case. The All-Rounder profile will keep him mid-field but there's no route to the frame against stronger closers with better Monmore records.
Spectacular early pace (EP 59, bend 63) makes him the certain leader. But CS 23 in a race with three dedicated closers is a recipe for fading from the front. The one CD win was against weaker closing opposition — today's three closers (CS 62-71, speed 46-57) will run him down through bends 3 and 4.
Thompson's 22% trainer edge is the standout positive but declining form (48→31→25→28) and below-average suitability (mean 23) undermine the trainer signal. Will sustain from mid-field but the closers have more finishing speed and the Fader has more early pace — he's stuck in no-man's land.
1,420 runs. T1 21.9% best trap. Three closers in the field with one Fader up front — classic closer's race. Speed R1 22.5%. Fereday 28.1% from 32r but no Fereday runners. Jones at 10% below threshold.
T1:21.9% T2:16.5% T3:20.2% T4:17.0% T5:16.2% T6:18.0%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Longrange Comet | 45 | 71 | Closer |
2Pas Daly | 49 | 71 | Closer |
3Durham Inferno | 42 | 62 | Closer |
4Kilwest Barney | 51 | 31 | All-Rounder |
5Outdoor Bono | 59 | 23 | Fader |
6Drumdoit Milo | 53 | 38 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.