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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Don Ricod 3y 26 | J B Thompson — 19% R518 W97 P283 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 57 | 56 (4) | 54 (4) | 63 (2) | 36 (1) | 68 (1) | 32 (2) | 47 (3) | 51 (2) | 44 (5) | 51 (4) | 26 | 49 | 25 | 37 | 50 | 46 | 2 | 10/3 | |
| 2 | ▶ Romantic Loveb 2y 7 | K Billingham-hine — 19% R609 W113 P343 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 51 | 59 (1) | 49 (2) | 46 (3) | 50 (4) | 54 (2) | 47 (4) | 52 (2) | 43 (4) | 49 (4) | 58 (2) | 44 | 49 | 37 | 45 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 5/4F | |
| 3 | ▶ Ice Cool Babyb 2y 25 | G A Griffiths — 20% R163 W32 P79 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | 45 | 34 (5) | 27 (6) | 30 (5) | 58 (1) | 30 (5) | 43 (3) | 34 (5) | 42 (3) | 57 (1) | 26 (6) | 58 | 39 | - | 32 | 39 | 40 | 4 | 16/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Droopys Vanityb 1y 25 | C S Fereday — 19% R454 W85 P228 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 48 | 41 (4) | 49 (5) | 43 (5) | 52 (2) | 56 (3) | 71 (1) | 70 (1) | 62 (1) | 48 (2) | 56 (1) | 45 | 52 | 18 | 44 | 47 | 47 | 3 | 10/3 | |
| 6 | ▶ Tell On Jaffad 3y 33 | C D Marston — 15% R452 W67 P207 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 46 | 34 (5) | 36 (6) | 39 (3) | 58 (1) | 33 (5) | 32 (6) | 48 (3) | 31 (1) | 39 (5) | 47 (3) | 27 | 37 | - | 34 | 43 | 39 | 5 | 11/4 | |
Romantic Love is the pick as the only Front Runner in the field — the pace profile that V3 Tier 1 shows wins 26.3% from 175 runs at Monmore 480m A7. She's a Front Runner (EP 56, CS 50, pace cons 87) which means she sustains her early pace rather than fading — the critical difference between her and Don Rico's Fader profile. Her performance P48 is fractionally below Don Rico's P50, but her suitability is the best in the field by a clear margin: track 49, distance 45, trap 44, class 37 (mean 44). That suitability mean of 44 is 10 points ahead of Don Rico's 34 — a significant edge. CD form from six Monmore 480m starts (4,4,2,1,2,4) includes a win and two seconds — she's proven she can convert at this venue/distance, unlike Don Rico who has six starts without a win. Speed 53 is the best in the field. Trainer Billingham-hine at 20% overall and 21.1% from 19 A7 runs is a moderate signal. The main negative is the T2 draw — the worst trap at 15.3% from 288 runs. That's a genuine structural handicap against Don Rico's dominant T1 at 25.2%. However, the Front Runner profile at 480m means she'll get forward quickly and won't need the positional advantage of T1 through the first bend — she'll be right there with Don Rico from T2. Her form trajectory (40→29→26→14→24) has been declining with a poor 14 recently, which is the main concern. But the CD evidence — a win and two seconds from six Monmore 480m starts — proves she performs at this venue regardless of recent headline form. The combination of best suitability (44), best speed (53), Front Runner profile at a track where that pace type wins 26.3%, and a proven CD record with a win outweighs the T2 structural disadvantage.
DANGER: The structural case is formidable — T1 at 25.2% and Thompson at 35% in A7 are both elite-level signals. CD form shows four placed efforts from six starts. But the Fader profile (CS 42) means he gives ground to the Front Runner in the closing stages, and the absence of a Monmore 480m win (despite six starts) suggests he consistently gets close without converting. The main threat to Romantic Love.
Two Monmore 480m wins prove he's capable on his day but three 5th/6th finishes from six CD starts show extreme unreliability. Speed 40 is 13 points behind Romantic Love — too large a gap to close from mid-field. A wildcard who could place if both principals underperform but not one to rely on.
Best CD form in the race — 2,1,4,1,2,3 at Monmore 480m is outstanding with five top-4 finishes from six starts. Second-best suitability (mean 40). But the 11 last time raises serious form doubts, and the Closer profile needs the Front Runner to weaken — which Romantic Love (CS 50) doesn't do. If she bounces back from the 11, she's the main each-way threat.
Form trajectory 63→73 and CD form 1,3,1 (two wins, 100% placed) are exceptional headline figures. Best speed (55). But the extreme Closer profile (EP 0, CS 100) from the worst outside draw (T6) against a Front Runner who doesn't fade is the toughest possible structural matchup. He needs Romantic Love to collapse — and Front Runners don't collapse the way Faders do.
1,598 runs. T1 DOMINATES at 25.2% from 294 runs — the strongest single-trap bias in A7. T2 at 15.3% is the worst trap. V3 Tier 1 (front-runners/pace) wins 26.3% from 175 runs. Thompson 35.0% from 20 runs is elite-level trainer signal. Billingham-hine 21.1% from 19r.
T1:25.2% T2:15.3% T3:18.8% T4:16.4% T5:20.0% T6:16.5%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Don Rico | 57 | 42 | Fader |
2Romantic Love | 56 | 50 | Front Runner |
3Ice Cool Baby | 50 | 45 | All-Rounder |
5Droopys Vanity | 45 | 61 | Closer |
6Tell On Jaffa | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.