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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Southwind Twirlb 1y 25 | W M Lyons — 20% R1041 W207 P559 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 27 (6) | 51 (4) | 71 (5) | 64 (1) | 22 (1) | 19 (4) | 24 (6) | 34 (3) | 30 (2) | - | 26 | 61 | - | 61 | - | 20 | 4 | 10/3 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Treamanagh Starb 2y 16 | J G Hurst — 17% R266 W46 P150 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 48 | 18 (5) | 34 (5) | 26 (3) | 19 (6) | 31 (1) | 20 (5) | 64 (2) | 17 (6) | 25 (3) | 21 (5) | 35 | 37 | 61 | 35 | 24 | 29 | 1 | 9/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Crystal Opalb 2y 26 | T D Coote — 18% R573 W102 P292 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 52 | 14 (6) | 14 (5) | 14 (6) | 17 (5) | 25 (2) | 40 (6) | 17 (5) | 28 (2) | 29 (1) | 20 (4) | 41 | 45 | 38 | 46 | 24 | 33 | 2 | 8/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Billionaire Vicd 1y 26 | J G Hurst — 17% R266 W46 P150 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 38 (5) | 41 (6) | 72 (2) | 75 (1) | 57 (1) | 67 (3) | 50 (6) | 26 (1) | - | - | 15 | 23 | - | 23 | - | 9 | 6 | 5/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Ineedabreakb 3y 6 | W M Lyons — 20% R1041 W207 P559 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 27 (2) | 29 (1) | 27 (2) | 23 (4) | 20 (5) | 23 (4) | 21 (5) | 21 (5) | 30 (1) | 25 (4) | 21 | 23 | 30 | 24 | 26 | 24 | 3 | 9/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Grumpy Dorisb 1y 5 | N Langley — 15% R210 W32 P113 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 24 (3) | 23 (5) | 24 (3) | 24 (3) | 28 (3) | 23 (3) | 33 (6) | 23 (1) | 31 (5) | - | 13 | 11 | - | 11 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 7/4F | - | |
Treamanagh Star benefits from the strongest structural signal in this race — T2 is DOMINANT at 24.72% from 178 runs, nearly 50% above the expected 16.7% rate. He's one of only two runners with a defined pace profile (AR, EP48, CS51), which gives him a significant advantage in a field of inexperienced unknowns. P24 is low but this is D5 — every dog in the field rates between P0 and P26, so there's minimal class separation. Speed 52 is solid (second-best), and his suit mean of 42.0 includes class suit 61 (best in field) confirming he's correctly placed at D5 level. Form is modest at 26→26→17→30 but the latest 30 is his best run — a small positive. Trainer J G Hurst at 18% is moderate but at these conditions Hurst posts 19.44% from 36 runs — above average.
DANGER: Best pace consistency (97), best EP (52), best suit mean (42.5), and improving form (16→17→27→29). The only reason she's not the pick is T3 at 15.33% vs T2's 24.72% — nearly a 10pp structural gap. If T2 doesn't fire, Crystal Opal is the most likely winner.
High venue suitability and improving trajectory suggest potential, but only three career runs at 16→20→23 is still well below competitive level for a D5 win. Speed 53 gives her raw pace but the complete lack of pace profile data is too much uncertainty.
Three career runs at 14, 17, and 22 — well below competitive D5 level. Decent trap position wasted on a dog with no proven ability. Need to see significant improvement before backing.
Form in freefall (29→25→20→18) — hard to support a dog going backwards regardless of trainer or trap. Best P (26) is historical, not current.
Suit mean 8.8 is a disqualifying signal — no form at this venue or distance. Declining form (25→22→14→15) compounds the structural mismatch. One to oppose regardless of trap position.
LOW SEPARATION — R1 19.22% vs R3 16.27% (2.95pp gap). T2 strongly DOMINANT at 24.72% from 178 runs — nearly 50% above expected. T4 and T6 also solid (19%+). Speed rank R1 at 22.82% is a useful signal. Tier 2 pace profile wins 23.16% — best-in-class for pace.
T1:17.58% T2:24.72% T3:15.33% T4:19.19% T5:15.93% T6:19.33%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 268m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 268m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (268m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 268m | 462m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southwind Twirl | 0.630 | 0.631 |
| 2 | Treamanagh Star | 0.636 | 0.645 |
| 3 | Crystal Opal | 0.648 | — |
| 4 | Billionaire Vic | 0.628 | 0.625 |
| 5 | Ineedabreak | 0.633 | — |
| 6 | Grumpy Doris | 0.630 | 0.640 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.