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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Fagans Peggyb 3y 24 | J Sharp — 23% R87 W20 P48 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 26 | 36 | 61 (3) | 56 (3) | 64 (2) | 56 (3) | 70 (1) | 45 (4) | 67 (1) | 51 (3) | 63 (1) | 94 (1) | 43 | 15 | 28 | 15 | 73 | 56 | 1 | 5/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Mucky Signetd 2y 6 | P Webster — 16% R92 W15 P45 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 60 | 60 (3) | 77 (1) | 55 (4) | 61 (3) | 50 (5) | 46 (5) | 72 (1) | 68 (1) | 61 (2) | 50 (5) | 26 | 40 | 20 | 31 | 51 | 44 | 3 | 4/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Get Up Paddyd 4y 17 | J Sharp — 23% R87 W20 P48 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 41 | 76 (1) | 49 (5) | 54 (5) | 51 (5) | 70 (2) | 70 (1) | 29 (6) | 49 (4) | 67 (1) | 49 (3) | 38 | 42 | 51 | 31 | 52 | 47 | 2 | 2/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Georges Charmb 2y 13 | K Hodson — 19% R262 W50 P139 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 78 | 35 (2) | 27 (4) | 30 (3) | 27 (5) | 48 (4) | 28 (4) | 53 (3) | 51 (4) | 54 (3) | 49 (4) | 31 | 30 | - | 27 | 37 | 34 | 5 | 6/5F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Bromistad 3y 12 | D L Fretwell — 15% R160 W24 P97 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 50 | 23 (6) | 51 (2) | 59 (2) | 37 (5) | 49 (2) | 44 (3) | 48 (3) | 34 (6) | 61 (1) | 23 (4) | 30 | 30 | - | 31 | 44 | 39 | 4 | 12/1 | - | |
CLASS OVERRIDE of the highest order. P73 is 21 points above the next best runner (P52 Get Up Paddy) and 21.6 above the field average of 51.4. For context, the skill threshold for class override is P 6+ above field average — this exceeds it by 3.5x. Three wins from last 5 runs (form: 2,3,1,1,1) shows a dog in devastating form. Pure Closer (EP 0, CS 100) from T1 — the structural position is strong at 22.1% from 280 runs. The concerns are real but secondary: speed 26 is very slow (the model derives speed from race times, and this dog may simply run at slower tracks or longer distances where times are naturally slower), and track suit 15 and distance suit 15 suggest limited Sheffield 500m experience. But when a dog has P73 in a field averaging P51, the question isn't whether suitability matters — it's whether the class gap can overcome inexperience, and at +21 points the answer is almost certainly yes. Sharp yard at TWR 21% is moderate. The race shape is ideal: Georges Charm's EP 78 ensures blistering early pace, the Faders burn off, and Fagans Peggy picks them up in the home straight with P73 class.
DANGER: Best speed 57, P52 second-best, class suit 51 highest. Closer at 500m. The insurance pick if Fagans Peggy's low suitability (15/15) proves a genuine barrier. But the 21-point P gap makes this a long shot.
Decent T2 structural position (23.2%) and Fader with enough CS (39) to potentially hold. But P51 is massively outclassed by the pick's P73. Will feature mid-pack but can't win.
Explosive early pace (EP 78, bend 78, speed 58) and DOMINANT T4 draw — but CS 0 at 500m is fatal to his win chances. Will set the race up for the Closers. A magnificent pace-setter who can't sustain.
Dead trap (T6 14.8%) + weak suitability + P44 below field average. Two wins from 5 at lower levels don't translate. Needs a lot to go right and the data doesn't support it.
LOW SEPARATION: R1 22.4% vs R2 22.3% — just 0.1pp gap. Ratings offer virtually no predictive value at A6. However, Fagans Peggy's P73 is 21+ points above field average — this is not a close composite race, it's a massive class override that renders the low-separation label academic.
T1:22.1% T2:23.2% T3:19.8% T4:25.0% T5:13.6% T6:14.8%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Fagans Peggy | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Mucky Signet | 57 | 39 | Fader |
3Get Up Paddy | 40 | 100 | Closer |
4Georges Charm | 78 | 0 | Fader |
6Bromista | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 280m | 435m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fagans Peggy | — | 0.599 | 0.601 |
| 2 | Mucky Signet | — | — | 0.599 |
| 3 | Get Up Paddy | — | — | 0.600 |
| 4 | Georges Charm | 0.597 | — | 0.603 |
| 6 | Bromista | 0.603 | — | 0.612 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.