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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Mustang Gracieb 5y 12 | D L Fretwell — 16% R162 W26 P102 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 26 (6) | 31 (4) | 34 (3) | 24 (5) | 30 (2) | 41 (1) | 25 (6) | 28 (3) | 25 (4) | 27 (3) | 48 | 32 | 19 | 34 | 27 | 31 | 4 | 10/3 | |
| 2 | ▶ Steeple Rd Laurab 2y 14 | E T Parker — 20% R208 W41 P118 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 64 (2) | 49 (4) | 59 (3) | 65 (3) | 53 (4) | 51 (4) | 37 (1) | 24 (4) | 27 (3) | 30 (3) | 32 | 28 | - | 28 | 22 | 25 | 6 | 2/1F | |
| 3 | ▶ Chasing Evieb 3y 6 | D L Fretwell — 16% R162 W26 P102 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 64 | 36 (2) | 25 (5) | 37 (3) | 33 (3) | 44 (5) | 42 (1) | 35 (2) | 37 (1) | 32 (2) | 36 (1) | 43 | 33 | 23 | 53 | 44 | 44 | 1 | 11/4 | |
| 4 | ▶ Savana Tamborab 2y 6 | D Henry — 25% R104 W26 P64 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 39 | 25 (5) | 26 (5) | 25 (4) | 31 (4) | 31 (1) | 26 (1) | 31 (2) | 24 (1) | 28 (4) | - | 53 | 44 | - | 48 | 36 | 40 | 2 | 6/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Nathans Jetb 2y 5 | L A Taylorson — 17% R234 W39 P133 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 31 (3) | 26 (4) | 26 (4) | 25 (5) | 29 (4) | 21 (3) | 31 (6) | 31 (2) | 31 (2) | - | 33 | 28 | 11 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 5 | 7/2 | |
| 6 | ▶ Russanda Lipsyb 4y 26 | E T Parker — 20% R208 W41 P118 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 50 | 51 (5) | 70 (1) | 50 (4) | 67 (1) | 55 (2) | 26 (5) | 27 (4) | 34 (2) | 32 (1) | 50 (3) | 29 | 35 | 46 | 40 | 52 | 46 | 3 | 10/1 | |
The combination of DOMINANT T3 (29.4% from 160 runs) and strong individual credentials makes this a confident selection. P44 is second-best in the field, 8 behind Russanda Lipsy but 8 above the field average of 34.8. Speed 50 is joint-best with Russanda Lipsy. Fader profile (EP 61, CS 20, bend 64) at 280m — this is exactly the distance where Faders thrive because the trip is too short for the fade to materialise. Bend 64 is the highest in the field and will see her lead through the first turn. Form reads 1,4,4,1,2 — two wins and a place from 5. Distance suit 53 confirms strong CD form at 280m. Trap suit 43 provides individual alignment with the dominant T3. Fretwell yard at TWR 20%. The structural case is overwhelming: T3 at 29.4% vs the rival T6 at 10.6% is a 19pp gap that P52 vs P44 (an 8-point gap) cannot bridge. In a race where comp rank R1 wins 23.6%, the structural advantage is the decisive factor.
DANGER: Best suitability suite (trap 53, track 44, distance 48), best recent form (2 wins, 2 places from 5), above-average T4 (21.8%), best trainer TWR 28%. The Closer profile at 280m is the concern but the all-round credentials demand danger status.
No wins from 5 (all 3rds and 4ths), P27 below average, nothing structurally or individually compelling. A consistent mid-pack finisher.
P22 lowest, speed 46 slowest, wildly inconsistent form. Two wins from 5 suggest occasional ability but too unreliable and outclassed at D3.
Decent T5 draw (20.5%) and speed 50 but declining form trajectory (1→4→5) and P28 mean the ability isn't there to exploit the position.
P52 is best by 8 points and technically a class override candidate (+17 above field avg). But T6 DEAD at 10.6% from 188 runs is the harshest structural headwind today, and declining form (5,5 from last 2) undermines the class case. The convergence of factors favours T3 Chasing Evie.
T3 DOMINANT at 29.4% — nearly 3x the T6 DEAD rate of 10.6%. The structural gap between T3 and T6 is the story of this race. Chasing Evie (T3, P44) vs Russanda Lipsy (T6, P52) — the 8-point P gap must overcome a 19pp structural gap. Comp rank R1 at 23.6% gives good separation.
T1:18.9% T2:17.1% T3:29.4% T4:21.8% T5:20.5% T6:10.6%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 280m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.