Watch PGR @ greyhounds.attheraces.com Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Hinault Mcrowd 4y 15 | K Wilton — 23% R173 W40 P91 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 45 | 51 (6) | 66 (3) | 67 (4) | 60 (3) | 70 (3) | 81 (2) | 88 (1) | 82 (1) | 67 (5) | 63 (3) | 40 | 38 | 40 | 38 | 67 | 57 | 2 | 4/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Monbeg Bellab 2y 6 | S J Spillane — 15% R112 W17 P59 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 48 | 69 (2) | 66 (4) | 68 (2) | 81 (1) | 58 (5) | 41 (6) | 60 (4) | 68 (4) | 44 (6) | 83 (1) | 47 | 58 | 39 | 43 | 62 | 58 | 4 | 3/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Jaymir Arlob 4y 25 | J Daly — 18% R238 W44 P126 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 49 | 62 (3) | 53 (5) | 67 (3) | 67 (2) | 59 (2) | 83 (1) | 55 (5) | 50 (5) | 67 (4) | 73 (3) | 33 | 39 | 38 | 37 | 64 | 54 | 3 | 9/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Centenarys Leod 2y 7 | J Daly — 18% R238 W44 P126 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 66 | 83 (6) | 55 (1) | 82 (5) | 51 (1) | 69 (4) | 43 (3) | 25 (5) | 82 (1) | 61 (1) | - | 50 | 63 | 37 | 60 | 74 | 68 | 1 | 2/1F | |
| 5 | ▶ Honour Bellied 3y 23 | A S Mcpherson — 15% R285 W42 P132 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 45 | 61 (3) | 62 (3) | 48 (5) | 80 (1) | 68 (2) | 51 (5) | 62 (4) | 67 (3) | 42 (4) | 71 (3) | 30 | 20 | 17 | 26 | 63 | 50 | 5 | 7/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Dynamite Blueb 3y 16 | S J Spillane — 15% R112 W17 P59 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | 50 | 36 (3) | 23 (5) | 57 (5) | 82 (1) | 29 (5) | 35 (2) | 60 (2) | 77 (1) | 60 (3) | 73 (2) | 32 | 50 | - | 32 | 45 | 43 | 6 | 9/2 | |
Centenarys Leo is the clear standout in this race — a convergence of every major factor pointing in his direction. Performance rating 74 is the field's best by 7 points over Hinault Mcrow (67), representing a genuine class override where the ability gap is large enough to overcome pace-profile concerns. Bend rating 66 is the best by 17 points — at Nottingham 500m where 'bend rating is the decisive metric,' this is the single most important number in the race. He sits in T4, the DOMINANT trap at 22.02% from 336 runs. His suitability profile is the best in the field across every dimension: track 63, distance 60, trap 50, class 37 — the track and distance scores are exceptional, confirming deep proven form at this venue and trip. He won A3 last time from T4 at 30.17/30.57adj (11/4), and before that won A4 from T3 and finished 2nd at A3 from T3. The Fader profile (EP 65, CS 13, consistency 92) is the one concern — at 500m, Faders lose ground in the closing stages. But the class override applies in full: P 74 is 14 points above the field average of ~60. A dog that far ahead of the field doesn't fade from 1st to 6th; he fades from 1st to 1st because nobody else has the base pace to catch him even at his worst. His form trajectory of 82→62→75→77 in open racing (excluding the trial 18) shows consistent excellence — three of four runs above 75 is elite at A3. J Daly at 12% is the one negative, but 19.35% from 31 A3 runs at Nottingham is above average. When the best bend, best performance, dominant trap, and best suitability all point to the same dog, that's as close to certainty as greyhound racing gets.
DANGER: The field's most consistent A3 runner (never below 61, always places from T1) with second-best speed and a Closer profile that suits Nottingham. But 5 runs from T1 without a win and the near-dead trap (15.68% from 370 runs) mean he'll be 2nd or 3rd again. Genuine danger but not a winner from this draw.
DANGER: Proven A3 winner from the T3 sweet spot with a Closer profile ideal for Nottingham 500m. The 54 last time is a concern but follows four consistent runs (83→60→67→68). J Daly is weak overall but performs above average at A3. A genuine threat from the best-value trap.
Others (volatile): Won A3 last from T3 at 30.08 showing peak ability, but form swings from 44 to 83 with no consistency. Speed 43 limits her when not at her best. Could finish 1st or 6th — too unreliable to pick or danger.
Others: Won A4 last but stepping up to A3 with poor suitability (track 20, class 17) and weak trainer (McPherson 6.67% at A3). Strong closing ability (CS 79) will earn minor places but the class step and structural factors make winning unlikely.
Others (outclassed): P 45 is 22 below the field leader with class suit 0 — never competed at A3. Sprint D2 form is irrelevant at 500m A3. 6th on only A3 attempt. Out of his depth.
T4 is structurally dominant at 22.02% from 336 runs. T3 is the second-best at 20.13% — consistent with the track profile noting T3 as the sweet spot. T1 is near-dead at 15.68%. Composite R1 wins 20.33% with moderate separation. Speed R1 wins 21.66%. Bend rating is the decisive metric per track profile.
T1:15.68% T2:18.18% T3:20.13% T4:22.02% T5:16.31% T6:19.12%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Hinault Mcrow | 50 | 58 | Closer |
2Monbeg Bella | 54 | 43 | All-Rounder |
3Jaymir Arlo | 50 | 57 | Closer |
4Centenarys Leo | 65 | 13 | Fader |
5Honour Bellie | 37 | 79 | Closer |
6Dynamite Blue | 48 | 42 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.