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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Honour Messib 4y 15 | A S Mcpherson — 15% R285 W42 P132 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 5 | 50 | 29 (6) | 62 (2) | 47 (4) | 35 (6) | 42 (4) | 32 (5) | 60 (2) | 62 (2) | 69 (1) | 57 (2) | 86 | 37 | 39 | 33 | 55 | 54 | 5 | 15/8 | |
| 2 | ▶ Croaghill Maxd 5y 14 | J Llewellin — 17% R365 W61 P195 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 18 | - | 46 (3) | 54 (2) | 44 (5) | 47 (3) | 54 (3) | 52 (2) | 52 (3) | 36 (5) | 43 (5) | 49 (3) | 26 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 61 | 48 | 2 | 6/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Rosshill Sueb 2y 25 | K Wilton — 23% R173 W40 P91 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | 38 | 59 (3) | 61 (4) | 81 (1) | 76 (1) | 52 (3) | 66 (4) | 75 (1) | 14 (5) | 75 (1) | 59 (4) | 38 | 39 | 31 | 33 | 68 | 57 | 4 | 3/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Petite Pippab 3y 34 | A S Mcpherson — 15% R285 W42 P132 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 54 | 30 (5) | 48 (5) | 60 (3) | 68 (3) | 56 (2) | 53 (3) | 37 (4) | 46 (4) | 62 (4) | - | 42 | 32 | 8 | 28 | 57 | 49 | 6 | 8/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Jager Brend 2y 17 | K Wilton — 23% R173 W40 P91 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 61 | 36 | 35 (6) | 38 (6) | 58 (3) | 60 (4) | 51 (6) | 78 (1) | 66 (2) | 77 (1) | 22 (1) | 57 (3) | 4 | 44 | - | 34 | 59 | 48 | 1 | 16/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Saleen Swanb 1y 37 | F Macklin — 20% R205 W42 P105 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 71 | 53 | 69 (4) | 64 (4) | 78 (2) | 71 (2) | 64 (2) | 83 (1) | 55 (3) | 77 (1) | 17 (4) | 77 (1) | 2 | 18 | 30 | 18 | 64 | 46 | 3 | 7/4F | |
Jager Bren is the pick in this HP on the strength of his closing ability, speed, and proven open-racing form. His Closer profile (EP 37, CS 58) is ideal for handicaps — the slower dogs get head starts and tire, and Jager Bren is built to pick them off in the closing stages. Speed 61 is the second-best among non-trial-flagged runners, and his form in open HP/A races is strong: 60→52→78→67→77 with positions of 4-6-1-2-1. The dip to 52 (6th) came in a race where he was recorded at 30.60 — actually a fast time, suggesting interference or bad luck rather than poor performance. He won A3/A4 races on Mar-06 and Feb-16, showing genuine ability at a higher grade than this HP. Track suitability (44) is the best among non-trial-flagged runners, confirming proven Nottingham form. K Wilton at 22% is one of the strongest trainers at Nottingham HP conditions. The one concern is trap suitability of just 4 — he hasn't historically performed well from T5 specifically. But in a handicap where the stagger changes starting positions, trap suitability is less meaningful. His closing speed will carry him past the tiring front-runners.
DANGER: Consistent improver (59→60→61→68→72) who won last. The reliability of 1-3-3-3-1 positions in recent runs makes him a genuine threat in a handicap where consistency matters. Lack of speed data limits confidence.
DANGER: Field-best speed (71) and a recent HP win from T6 at 30.30. When she fires she's the best dog here by far. But pace consistency of 0 and trap suit of 2 mean she's as likely to trail as lead. High-risk, high-reward — genuine threat but impossible to trust.
Others: Massive trap suitability (86) and biggest handicap but speed rating of 5 means he's relying entirely on the head start holding. Consistent placer but likely to be caught by the closers.
Others (trial warning): Strong HP pedigree (won Dec-29) and ideal Closer profile for handicaps, but 3 of 6 last runs are trials. Three-month gap since last genuine open race. Cannot be trusted despite the numbers.
Others: Consistent mid-pack finisher declining from recent peak (61→69→57→54→37). Closing speed ratio of 4 means she can't pick off dogs ahead. Will fill a place but not threaten the principals.
HANDICAP race — staggered starts partially neutralise trap position. Speed and pace profile are elevated factors. Speed rank 1 wins 22.46% from 837 runs. K Wilton is the strongest trainer at these conditions.
T1:20.08% T2:17.72% T3:14.59% T4:19.76% T5:20.16% T6:22.68%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Honour Messi | 50 | 0 | All-Rounder |
2Croaghill Max | — | — | No data |
3Rosshill Sue | 33 | 78 | Closer |
4Petite Pippa | 50 | 4 | All-Rounder |
5Jager Bren | 37 | 58 | Closer |
6Saleen Swan | 100 | 50 | Front Runner |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.