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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ballymac Frisbyd 5y 37 | B Heaton — 15% R196 W30 P96 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 45 | 31 (6) | 40 (6) | 64 (2) | 80 (1) | 61 (3) | 50 (4) | 79 (1) | 72 (2) | 64 (3) | 70 (2) | 36 | 37 | 39 | 38 | 67 | 53 | 2 | 3/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Peads Toeb 4y 16 | W M Lyons — 19% R1050 W203 P560 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 51 | 69 (1) | 30 (6) | 53 (4) | 49 (5) | 52 (4) | 60 (3) | 54 (4) | 75 (1) | 74 (1) | 62 (2) | 40 | 37 | 37 | 43 | 62 | 52 | 4 | 5/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ How Ya Fixedd 3y 5 | I Zivkovic — 13% R609 W82 P287 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | 51 | 32 (6) | 66 (2) | 50 (5) | 42 (6) | 43 (5) | 63 (2) | 54 (4) | 48 (6) | 42 (6) | 76 (1) | 45 | 33 | 23 | 32 | 57 | 49 | 3 | 9/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Ger Dannyd 2y 36 | T D Coote — 19% R578 W111 P295 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 52 | 30 (6) | 44 (5) | 30 (4) | 66 (2) | 41 (1) | 34 (6) | 69 (2) | 31 (4) | 51 (5) | 49 (6) | 40 | 34 | 32 | 46 | 48 | 44 | 6 | 2/1F | |
| 5 | ▶ Lightfoot Rosab 2y 17 | W M Lyons — 19% R1050 W203 P560 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 65 | 42 (5) | 79 (1) | 80 (1) | 49 (6) | 79 (1) | 45 (6) | 66 (3) | 66 (2) | 48 (6) | 42 (5) | 34 | 48 | 20 | 32 | 62 | 51 | 1 | 7/2 | |
| 6 | ▶ Da Man Joeyd 3y 4 | M N May — 16% R276 W45 P110 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 48 | 79 (1) | 59 (3) | 51 (6) | 77 (1) | 57 (3) | 74 (4) | 65 (1) | 56 (3) | 55 (4) | - | 28 | 40 | 36 | 39 | 59 | 48 | 5 | 7/1 | |
Lightfoot Rosa's form trajectory is the most compelling narrative on the entire Kinsley card: 53→56→66→79 — four consecutive improvements culminating in a 79 that's the single highest recent perf by any runner in this race. That 79 represents genuine A2/A3 quality in an A4 race. Her Fader profile (EP61, CS38, pc87) gets her to the front going downhill — EP61 is the best early pace in the field, and bend 65 (also best) means she navigates the first bend cleanly and leads. Speed 52 is solid. Track suit 48 is the highest in the field, confirming strong Kinsley form. Suit mean 33.5 is mid-field but track suit carries extra weight on a tight circuit. Trainer W M Lyons at 26% is experienced at Kinsley. The concern is CS38 as a Fader over 462m — historically, Faders at Kinsley 462 weaken through bends 3 and 4. However, the CLASS OVERRIDE applies here: 79 latest puts her at least 12 points above the field average performance (low 50s). A dog at peak form this far ahead of the field can lead from the front and simply not get caught, even while fading. T5 at 14.71% is a structural headwind (below average, near the track profile's warning about T5/T6) but the form surge and raw ability overwhelm it.
DANGER: P67 best in field with genuine A3 class (80 two starts ago). But DEAD trap (11.71%), Closer profile on a front-runner track, declining form, and weakest trainer at conditions create a wall of negatives. Will close late but likely from too far back to win.
DANGER: DOMINANT trap (22.18%) + best trap suit (45) + AR profile on a front-runner track. In a LOW SEPARATION race, this structural convergence is powerful. Speed 38 is the wildcard — if it costs him 2-3 lengths over 462m, the Closers catch him. If not, the trap advantage delivers.
Steady form decline from 76 to 50 over four starts. Even strong A4 suit (39.2 mean) and Lyons' placement can't paper over a dog going backwards. The 76 was two months ago; the 50 is now.
Too erratic (29→66→41→35) with a genuine Fader concern (CS34 over 462m). The 66 could repeat but three sub-45 runs from four starts says otherwise. Too unpredictable to trust.
Improving form (50→45→62→70) shows genuine A4 quality but Closer from T6 at Kinsley faces too many structural headwinds. Will close into a place at best if the leaders weaken.
LOW SEPARATION — R1 16.64% vs R3 14.40% (2.24pp gap). T3 strongly DOMINANT at 22.18% from 266 runs. T1 DEAD at 11.71% from 222 runs. Front runners (Tier 1) win 21.25% — the highest pace tier win rate, confirming Kinsley 462's front-runner bias at A4 grade.
T1:11.71% T2:17.52% T3:22.18% T4:16.72% T5:14.71% T6:15.03%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Ballymac Frisby | 46 | 65 | Closer |
2Peads Toe | 47 | 57 | Closer |
3How Ya Fixed | 52 | 43 | All-Rounder |
4Ger Danny | 56 | 34 | Fader |
5Lightfoot Rosa | 61 | 38 | Fader |
6Da Man Joey | 47 | 60 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.