| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tuxedo Twlightb 4y 12 | W M Lyons — 19% R1054 W204 P562 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 35 | 23 (4) | 48 (4) | 51 (4) | 37 (6) | 64 (1) | 34 (6) | 49 (3) | 60 (2) | 51 (2) | 50 (3) | 25 | 30 | 18 | 25 | 38 | 33 | 6 | 7/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ Shrewd Knowsd 3y 7 | J Robinson — 19% R299 W56 P171 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 50 | 50 (3) | 59 (6) | 49 (1) | 36 (2) | 55 (5) | 44 (2) | 43 (4) | 43 (5) | - | - | 33 | 26 | 18 | 22 | 51 | 41 | 1 | 6/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Romantic Bend 2y 19 | I Zivkovic — 13% R615 W82 P289 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | 60 | 38 (6) | 39 (5) | 34 (6) | 29 (6) | 45 (5) | 48 (3) | 42 (6) | 65 (1) | 46 (4) | 30 (6) | 26 | 28 | 28 | 23 | 43 | 35 | 2 | 10/3 | |
| 4 | ▶ Knotmor Blaked 2y 16 | D E Fradgley — 15% R97 W15 P52 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 48 | 37 (5) | 41 (6) | 33 (5) | 36 (5) | 34 (6) | 46 (6) | 67 (1) | 47 (3) | 44 (4) | 54 (2) | 47 | 41 | 31 | 31 | 42 | 42 | 3 | 6/4F | |
| 5 | ▶ Deecee Bonnieb 2y 26 | W M Lyons — 19% R1054 W204 P562 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 50 | 62 (2) | 58 (2) | 50 (3) | 46 (4) | 79 (1) | 40 (5) | 40 (5) | 57 (2) | 64 (1) | 59 (4) | 20 | 31 | 44 | 24 | 42 | 34 | 5 | 5/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Bells Meadowd 4y 16 | W M Lyons — 19% R1054 W204 P562 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 40 | 65 (2) | 44 (5) | 70 (1) | 53 (3) | 51 (4) | 69 (1) | 69 (1) | 75 (1) | 64 (1) | 63 (1) | 23 | 18 | 18 | 22 | 47 | 35 | 4 | 8/1 | |
Shrewd Knows brings the best performance in the field (P51) from a near-dominant T2 position (20.09% from 234 runs) — that combination of individual quality plus structural advantage is exactly the convergence you look for. His All-Rounder profile (EP50, CS50, pc89) is perfectly balanced for Kinsley 462m — enough early pace to sit close through the downhill first bend, enough closing ability to pick off any weakening leaders. The form trajectory is the standout signal here: 41→50→51→61 is a textbook improving sequence, with each run better than the last. That 61 latest is A5/A6 quality in an A7 race — a genuine class edge over this field. Speed 50 is mid-field but adequate when you're the best-rated dog with a structural trap advantage. Suit mean 24.8 is modest (track 26, distance 22, trap 33) — he's not a Kinsley specialist — but at NORMAL separation, P51 with that improving form matters more than suitability.
DANGER: DOMINANT trap + best bend = he'll lead through the first bend. The question is whether CS33 costs him over 462m. If he holds, the 20.93% trap advantage makes him the winner. If he fades, Shrewd Knows is ready to pounce.
Structural disaster — DEAD trap, extreme Closer, declining form. The data doesn't support this dog featuring in any finish position.
Best suitability fit (37.5 mean) with a strong trainer (Fradgley 32%), but the 9-point P gap to Shrewd Knows and below-average trap position limit his chances. Place frame candidate.
Below-average trap, modest P, declining form. AR profile is correct for the track but the structural and form signals both point away. Unlikely to feature.
Best speed (56) and strong CS86 give her a finishing kick, but EP29 from T6 means she'll be too far back on a track where the first bend decides the race. Would need the entire front rank to collapse.
NORMAL separation — R1 18.01% vs R3 11.06% (6.95pp gap). Composite rank does separate dogs at A7 here. T3 dominant at 20.93%, T2 near-dominant at 20.09%. T1 DEAD at 10.81% from 148 runs. Pace profiles broadly even. Trainer D E Fradgley stands out if present.
T1:10.81% T2:20.09% T3:20.93% T4:15.30% T5:15.27% T6:18.35%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Tuxedo Twlight | 21 | 100 | Closer |
2Shrewd Knows | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Romantic Ben | 53 | 33 | All-Rounder |
4Knotmor Blake | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
5Deecee Bonnie | 52 | 42 | All-Rounder |
6Bells Meadow | 29 | 86 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.