Loading...
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tommys Niftyb 1y 14 | J G Hurst — 18% R274 W49 P154 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 38 | 47 (5) | 44 (6) | 55 (4) | 63 (2) | 54 (4) | 75 (1) | 43 (5) | 64 (3) | 50 (5) | 75 (1) | 46 | 45 | 20 | 43 | 57 | 52 | 4 | 7/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ Velardid 2y 16 | J Robinson — 19% R298 W56 P170 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 61 | 63 (2) | 42 (1) | 41 (5) | 75 (1) | 33 (4) | 50 (3) | 56 (4) | 62 (3) | 68 (2) | 35 (6) | 45 | 40 | 42 | 39 | 59 | 51 | 1 | 11/4 | |
| 3 | ▶ Ardsallagh Ladyb 2y 6 | T D Coote — 19% R578 W111 P295 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 50 | 63 (4) | 81 (1) | 75 (1) | 62 (3) | 56 (4) | 48 (5) | 76 (6) | 66 (1) | 50 (2) | - | 44 | 37 | 23 | 39 | 53 | 48 | 3 | 5/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Grumpy Walterd 2y 7 | N Langley — 16% R209 W33 P116 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 55 | 75 (1) | 40 (5) | 59 (2) | 69 (2) | 45 (2) | 68 (5) | 23 (2) | 63 (5) | 60 (2) | - | 39 | 28 | 40 | 28 | 52 | 44 | 5 | 9/4F | |
| 5 | ▶ Betweenthe Linesb 3y 26 | J Robinson — 19% R298 W56 P170 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 49 | 79 (1) | 57 (4) | 59 (4) | 80 (1) | 62 (3) | 76 (1) | 63 (3) | 73 (1) | 68 (2) | 47 (4) | 35 | 36 | 34 | 30 | 61 | 49 | 2 | 6/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Step The Beatb 3y 23 | W M Lyons — 19% R1050 W203 P560 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 100 | - | 37 (6) | 61 (4) | 65 (3) | 73 (2) | 80 (1) | 56 (5) | 71 (2) | 46 (5) | 24 (4) | 31 (3) | 49 | 18 | - | - | 27 | 32 | 6 | 5/1 | |
Velardi is the standout on structural fit at Kinsley 462m. Best bend rating in the field (61) is a powerful signal at a track where the downhill run to the first bend decides most races. EP62 — also field-best — means he'll reach that bend first from T2, and bend 61 means he'll navigate it cleanly while others lose ground. T2 wins 19.44% from 324 runs — a strong near-dominant position. His suit mean of 41.5 is the best in the race, with balanced scores across track (40), distance (39), trap (45), and class (42). P59 is second-best behind Betweenthe Lines (P61) but the 2-point gap is negligible at LOW SEPARATION conditions. Form is erratic (64→50→45→64) but the latest 64 shows a return to his best level. The Fader tag (CS35) is the main concern — over 462m with 4 bends, fading is a real risk. However, pace consistency of 90 is excellent, suggesting the fade is gradual rather than dramatic. At Kinsley where getting to the front early is worth 2-3 lengths, even a moderate fade from the lead should be survivable against this field.
DANGER: DOMINANT trap position (20.34%) with best pace consistency (93) and balanced AR profile. Will track Velardi and could capitalise if his Fader profile costs him in the closing stages. The most likely upset candidate.
DANGER: Best P in the field (61) with genuine A4 class (77 two starts ago). AR profile is well-suited to 462m. Structural disadvantage of T5 at Kinsley's downhill first bend is the only thing preventing a pick — if he overcomes it, he's the best dog in the race.
Form crash from 71 to 28 is alarming. Closer profile wrong for Kinsley 462. Even at his best (75) he'd need traffic ahead to collapse. At 28, he's not competitive.
Solid AR profile with decent speed but declining form (68→43) and no structural edge. Needs Velardi to fade AND Ardsallagh Lady to underperform — too many 'ifs' for a pick.
Hopelessly outclassed. P27 in an A5 field, zero distance suitability, and form locked in the teens/twenties. Lyons placing notwithstanding, this dog has no business at this level or distance.
LOW SEPARATION — R1 18.08% vs R3 17.88% (0.2pp gap). Ratings are virtually noise at A5. T3 marginally dominant at 20.34%, T2 strong at 19.44%. No dead traps. Bend rank R1 wins 19.42% — slight edge for best bend dogs. Pace profiles broadly even across tiers.
T1:15.61% T2:19.44% T3:20.34% T4:16.16% T5:17.33% T6:16.95%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Tommys Nifty | 45 | 58 | Closer |
2Velardi | 62 | 35 | Fader |
3Ardsallagh Lady | 49 | 52 | All-Rounder |
4Grumpy Walter | 52 | 49 | All-Rounder |
5Betweenthe Lines | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
6Step The Beat | — | — | No data |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.