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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Favourite Placeb 4y 14 | D Calvert — 17% R549 W93 P313 Trainer form — last 3 months | 52 | - | 37 (3) | 33 (4) | 38 (2) | 40 (3) | 30 (5) | 39 (3) | 47 (4) | 41 (1) | 41 (3) | - | 58 | 48 | 59 | 65 | 38 | 45 | 3 | 11/4 | ||
| 2 | ▶ Ballinabola Zoeyb 3y 24 | S A Birks — 16% R221 W36 P125 Trainer form — last 3 months | 34 | 100 | 35 (5) | 27 (5) | 28 (4) | 46 (2) | 46 (2) | 57 (1) | 24 (5) | 35 (5) | 33 (5) | 35 (5) | 46 | 39 | - | 50 | 38 | 40 | 5 | 14/1 | ||
| 3 | ▶ Flashing Styleb 1y 16 | S Watson — 31% R421 W129 P297 Trainer form — last 3 months | 51 | 0 | 37 (4) | 43 (1) | 42 (1) | 40 (3) | 38 (2) | 41 (3) | 47 (2) | 47 (1) | 28 (1) | - | 52 | 66 | 30 | 66 | 49 | 53 | 2 | 6/4 | ||
| 4 | ▶ Archies Gambled 2y 15 | S J L Lapidge — 18% R319 W57 P188 Trainer form — last 3 months | 40 | - | 38 (4) | 31 (2) | 98 (5) | 66 (1) | 40 (4) | 33 (3) | 35 (4) | 46 (3) | 42 (1) | - | 59 | 37 | 17 | 51 | 51 | 50 | 4 | 7/1 | ||
| 5 | ▶ Cushie Arnied 2y 16 | S Watson — 31% R421 W129 P297 Trainer form — last 3 months | 52 | - | 41 (2) | 43 (1) | 36 (3) | 33 (3) | 37 (2) | 31 (4) | 33 (3) | 42 (1) | 34 (3) | 30 (5) | 61 | 51 | 34 | 55 | 37 | 44 | 1 | 11/10F | ||
Cushie Arnie brings the most complete profile for this D1 275m contest. Watson at 32% is a strong-tier trainer signal and he's placed this dog deliberately for D1 at 275m — the 2nd-place finish at D1 on March 15 (17.04 adjusted, beaten only by stablemate Flashing Style) proves he belongs at this level. Before that, a dominant D2 win on March 11 in 16.92 — the fastest raw time any runner in this field has posted in recent form. Speed 52 is joint-best with Favourite Place but the 16.92 time suggests Cushie Arnie has the edge on actual pace. Suitability is strong: trap 61 is the field's best trap suit score, reflecting proven ability from outside draws, with class 34, track 51, and distance 55 completing a solid suit mean of 50.25. Form reads 41→43→35→33→37→31→33→42→25→34 — the two most recent perfs (41, 43) represent an uptick that aligns with the 16.92 and 17.04 times. The condition data supports the draw: T5 wins 21.74% from 69 runs — the second-best trap at D1 275m with the largest sample size. Watson entering both T3 (Closer) and T5 (no confirmed pace profile) suggests T5 is the more structurally sound option at sprint distance. The combination of fastest time, Watson placement, proven D1 form, best trap suit, and strong trap position makes this the most reliable selection.
DANGER: Field-best suitability (57.5 mean), promoted on 1st-2nd-1st streak, joint-best speed (52). The 13.33% T1 rate is the significant negative — but 45 runs is a modest sample and this dog's D2 dominance from T1 suggests she can overcome the draw.
DANGER: D1 winner (16.95 adj), Watson 32%, elite track/distance suitability (66/66), perf 49 second-best. The Closer profile at 275m is the risk factor but class override applies — she's good enough to overcome it if the pace is honest.
Can be confidently opposed. Class suit 0 at D1, field-worst speed (34), inconsistent distance mixing (450m/275m), and worst trap bias (13.79%). The 17.15 best time is competitive but it's a single run in an otherwise unconvincing sprint profile.
Dominant trap (T4 26.32%) and best perf (51) look attractive, but the perf is inflated by OR results and trials. Only D1 Doncaster run was 5th in 17.76. Primarily a Towcester dog with erratic form — trap alone can't compensate for this level of inconsistency.
T4 dominates with 26.32% from 57 runs — the structural sweet spot at D1 275m. T1 and T2 are both weak (13.33% and 13.79%) suggesting inside draws don't carry the same advantage at D1 level as at lower grades. T6 shows 37.04% but from only 27 runs — insufficient sample for confidence. Speed R1 wins 23.84% confirming pace matters at this distance.
T1:13.33% T2:13.79% T3:18.60% T4:26.32% T5:21.74% T6:37.04%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 275m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.