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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Vinegarhill Kurnd 2y 15 | S Watson — 31% R414 W128 P292 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 49 | 38 (4) | 30 (4) | 69 (2) | 43 (5) | 60 (1) | 61 (1) | 51 (2) | 58 (1) | 44 (4) | 58 (1) | 52 | 46 | 68 | 42 | 52 | 50 | 1 | 1/1F | |
| 2 | ▶ Abigails Marinab 2y 9 | C A Williams — 15% R362 W53 P183 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 60 | 60 (1) | 47 (2) | 48 (3) | 42 (3) | 49 (6) | 59 (1) | 46 (3) | 57 (2) | 42 (5) | 58 (1) | 44 | 43 | 35 | 44 | 46 | 45 | 2 | 7/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Knockdrum Cryptob 2yN/R 6 | S Watson — 31% R414 W128 P292 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 53 | 60 (1) | 40 (5) | 51 (2) | 43 (3) | 36 (5) | 48 (3) | 50 (3) | 60 (1) | 57 (1) | - | 54 | 53 | - | 53 | 55 | 54 | - | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Jazza Lilab 4y 23 | D Calvert — 17% R545 W93 P315 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 32 | 44 | 22 (4) | 35 (1) | 27 (3) | 24 (5) | 34 (1) | 30 (3) | 35 (4) | 49 (3) | 26 (5) | 22 (5) | 38 | 34 | 37 | 32 | 44 | 41 | 4 | 5/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Dark Eddied 2y 15 | S Watson — 31% R414 W128 P292 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 50 | 53 (5) | 40 (2) | 49 (5) | 43 (3) | 51 (3) | 60 (2) | 40 (1) | 59 (4) | 47 (1) | - | 44 | 42 | 28 | 38 | 46 | 44 | 3 | 6/5 | |
The race profile fits this dog perfectly — Closer (CS 89, PC 62) at 450m on Doncaster's fair track where closers thrive. Best speed in the field (53) where Speed R1 wins 27.29% from 667 runs. Best performance (52) with a high ceiling — 58, 58, 60 in his top three races. Won at B3 (28.60 on Mar 15) and at B2 (28.46 on Feb 28), proving he's competitive at the grade above. Class suitability of 68 is the highest in the field, confirming his B2 pedigree. Trainer S Watson at 32% is a strong-tier signal (20% in conditions from 30 runs with 46.67% place rate). Form trajectory shows variance — 58→44→58→46→22→60 — but the peaks are significantly higher than anyone else's peaks. His 28.14 B3 win on Feb 9 is the fastest B3 time in any runner's recent form. Drawn in T1 which at B3 450m wins 23.02% from 291 runs — fair. The combination of Closer at a fair track, best speed, best perf, B2 class, and Watson trainer makes this a confident selection. He'll be tracking the Faders through the first bend and closing hard in the home straight.
DANGER: Rising rapidly (28.73→28.61→28.28→28.29), highest perf (55), Watson trainer, best suitability. But Fader at 450m, worst trap (18.65%), class suit 0, and only 4 career races create genuine uncertainty.
Won last at B3 with best EP and bend but Fader (CS 0) at 450m is a structural weakness against two genuine closers. Will lead but likely weakens in the home straight.
Best closing speed (CS 99) and most profitable trainer (Calvert 29.17%) at 450m Doncaster. But speed 32 is far too low to catch faster closers. Will place but unlikely to beat Vinegarhill Kurn in a finishing duel.
Best trap (23.17%), Watson trainer, and B3 winner, but pace consistency of 16 makes him a lottery. Mid-pack ability without the closing speed or early pace to dominate. Will place in a weak field but not a confident selection.
Very even trap distribution confirms Doncaster 450m is a fair track — only 4.5% separates best (T6 23.17%) from worst (T3 18.65%). Speed R1 at 27.29% from 667 runs is the strongest predictor. D Calvert 29.17% from 48 runs with +15.87 P&L is the most profitable trainer.
T1:23.02% T2:21.43% T3:18.65% T4:21.03% T5:23.01% T6:23.17%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Vinegarhill Kurn | 49 | 89 | Closer |
2Abigails Marina | 57 | 0 | Fader |
3Knockdrum Crypto | 55 | 17 | Fader |
4Jazza Lila | 45 | 99 | Closer |
6Dark Eddie | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.