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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Easy Kiteb 2y 6 | D Calvert — 17% R550 W91 P312 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 31 (2) | 21 (5) | 28 (3) | 27 (2) | 25 (4) | 24 (4) | 23 (5) | 29 (6) | 34 (4) | - | 59 | 53 | 37 | 53 | 30 | 39 | 2 | 9/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Skidrow Lunab 2y 28 | D Calvert — 17% R550 W91 P312 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | - | 37 (2) | 35 (4) | 31 (4) | 43 (3) | 37 (1) | 36 (1) | 25 (1) | 25 (4) | 32 (4) | - | 33 | 35 | 34 | 41 | 26 | 30 | 5 | 9/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Sparks Charmb 3y 6 | S Watson — 31% R408 W126 P285 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | - | 29 (4) | 42 (1) | 34 (3) | 34 (1) | 38 (3) | 36 (1) | 34 (1) | 33 (2) | 25 (2) | - | 52 | 43 | 26 | 49 | 30 | 36 | 1 | 6/5F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Cockneys Charmb 2y 8 | S J L Lapidge — 18% R319 W57 P182 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 0 | 38 (1) | 29 (4) | 25 (3) | 34 (1) | 51 (5) | 29 (5) | 31 (2) | 24 (2) | 28 (4) | - | 53 | 34 | 25 | 34 | 27 | 32 | 4 | 6/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Glitter Aland 4y 14 | D Calvert — 17% R550 W91 P312 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 100 | 28 (5) | 37 (1) | 23 (6) | 33 (2) | 30 (3) | 32 (2) | 36 (1) | 34 (2) | 24 (5) | 28 (4) | 38 | 36 | 14 | 45 | 31 | 34 | 3 | 2/1 | - | |
The standout factor here is a combination of S Watson's 32% trainer win rate — a strong-tier signal that historically produces significantly elevated win rates when they're the best trainer in a field — and a speed rating of 60 that blows the rest of this field away. The next best speed is T5 Glitter Alan at 53, a 7-point gap that translates to genuine superiority at 275m where pace is everything. Best time of 17.09 is 0.26 seconds faster than any other runner's best, which at sprint distance equates to roughly 1.5 lengths of clear daylight. Recent form reads 34→32→25→25 on the last four perfs, with the two 2nds (17.35, 17.42 adjusted) coming in recent D3 starts showing competitive speed. Before that, a D3 win on Jan 12th with a 17.09 adjusted time confirms the raw class. Watson has deliberately placed this dog in D3 275m from T3, which is exactly where the track suit (43) and distance suit (49) are strongest. Trap suit 52 is decent despite T3's 18.41% base rate — with 5 runners rather than 6, the T3 crowding risk is significantly reduced. The one trial (T1 grade, Feb 16) in the last 10 is not concerning — just 1 of 10.
DANGER: Best trap (26.74%), best suitability (50.5 mean), massive CD form with 3 wins from last 8 at T1 D3 275m. The rail advantage and venue knowledge make her the main threat despite modest speed.
DANGER: Best perf (31), Fader pace profile works at 275m, consistent recent form (3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 1st). But worst trap (17.68%), worst class suit (14), and 7-point speed deficit to the pick limit his ceiling.
Weakest overall profile in the field. One fast adjusted time (17.32) shows latent ability but the inconsistency (15→33→27→18 in recent perfs) makes her impossible to trust. Can be confidently opposed.
Closer at 275m sprint faces a severe structural mismatch — there isn't enough race to close. Erratic form (5th, 5th, 1st, 3rd, 5th) and weak trainer (14%) compound the issue. One to oppose despite decent trap position.
T1 dominates with 26.74% win rate from 1,388 runs — the strongest trap bias in this grade. T3 at 18.41% is the weakest trap, but with only 5 runners the field dynamics shift. Speed R1 wins 26.43% suggesting raw pace is a strong predictor at this distance.
T1:26.74% T2:24.02% T3:18.41% T4:20.95% T5:17.68% T6:21.79%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 275m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 275m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (275m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 275m | 483m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Easy Kite | 0.637 | — |
| 2 | Skidrow Luna | 0.631 | — |
| 3 | Sparks Charm | 0.631 | — |
| 4 | Cockneys Charm | 0.635 | 0.650 |
| 5 | Glitter Alan | 0.634 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.