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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Nowsnotthetimed 2y 26 | S Watson — 31% R414 W128 P292 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 43 | 30 (5) | 61 (1) | 61 (1) | 42 (4) | 59 (1) | 42 (3) | 52 (2) | 40 (2) | 50 (3) | 54 (2) | 53 | 50 | 52 | 48 | 49 | 49 | 1 | 13/8F | |
| 2 | ▶ Comer Pennyb 3y 5 | D Calvert — 17% R545 W93 P315 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 50 | 40 (5) | 46 (3) | 34 (5) | 29 (5) | 32 (5) | 42 (4) | 41 (4) | 31 (5) | 46 (3) | 30 (5) | 26 | 32 | 42 | 32 | 47 | 41 | 2 | 6/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Nothing In Yab 2y 14 | D Calvert — 17% R545 W93 P315 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 53 | 31 (5) | 37 (1) | 32 (2) | 37 (1) | 33 (2) | 28 (5) | 34 (2) | 51 (2) | 12 (6) | 53 (2) | 39 | 34 | 14 | 44 | 40 | 40 | 5 | 4/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Moss Solod 4y 15 | K Everitt — 20% R81 W16 P50 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 49 | 43 (4) | 46 (4) | 46 (3) | 45 (3) | 41 (4) | 62 (1) | 28 (5) | 61 (1) | 58 (1) | 49 (3) | 19 | 39 | 12 | 36 | 45 | 40 | 4 | 9/4 | |
| 6 | ▶ Splitting Hairsb 3y 8 | S J L Lapidge — 18% R320 W56 P187 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 53 | 51 (2) | 42 (4) | 35 (5) | 52 (2) | 37 (4) | 46 (3) | 59 (1) | 16 (2) | 59 (1) | 46 (2) | 50 | 48 | 46 | 44 | 44 | 45 | 3 | 11/4 | |
The best performance rating in the field at 49 with the second-best speed at 53 — both top-two signals in a race where speed R1 wins 27.29%. Drawn in T1 which is the dominant trap at these conditions, winning 23.02% from 291 runs. S Watson at 32% win rate is a strong-tier trainer signal that historically correlates with high conversion rates when they're the best trainer in the field. Watson knows where to place dogs. The CD form is extraordinary in its consistency: six straight runs at this exact track, distance, and grade producing 2-2-3-2-2-2. Six consecutive places with zero wins raises the question of whether she can get over the line, but the performance trajectory is stable (52→40→50→54→51→53) with that 40 looking like a one-off dip. Suitability profile is balanced and strong across all four dimensions: trap 53, class 52, track 50, distance 48 — this is a dog that genuinely fits these conditions. Closer profile (EP 40, CS 100) means she won't lead, but Doncaster 450m is one of the fairer tracks in UK racing for late runners. She'll be close enough to the pace to strike when the front-running types weaken, and the 100 closing speed ratio means she's finishing faster than she starts. The concern is that six consecutive places without a win suggests something holds her back at the death — but the combination of best perf, best trap, and best trainer is hard to look past.
DANGER: The only CD winner in the field with a peak 57 perf that's the best single run from any runner here. All-Rounder profile and strong trainer conditions signal (Calvert 29.17% from 48 runs) make her a genuine threat. But form swings from 38 to 57 make her unreliable — could run a big race or collapse. The weaker suitability profile compared to T1 is the key differentiator.
Likely to lead early but faces a tough ask sustaining it. Class suitability of 14 is the lowest in the field by some distance, and the form trajectory (39→51→41→59→19→38) is erratic with two sub-40 runs in the last four. She's stepping up from B4 and the data doesn't support her at this level. T3 is also the weakest trap at these conditions (18.65%). Will set the pace but expect her to weaken in the closing stages.
Has the best raw speed in the field (58) and speed R1 is the strongest predictor at these conditions (27.29%). But EP 4 means he'll be last at the first bend, 2 of 6 recent runs are trials, and the form is wildly inconsistent (58 one run, 18 the next). T4 is the worst trap at Doncaster 450m. A live outsider when everything clicks but structurally compromised.
Fits the conditions on suitability (strong across all four dimensions) and has the right pace profile (All-Rounder at a fair track). But the declining form trajectory (latest run 36) and inability to win from six CD runs (best finish 2nd, three times) make her hard to pick. Would need significant improvement to threaten the principals.
Speed R1 wins 27.29% from 667 runs — strongest single signal. T1 is the best trap at 23.02% from 291 runs. D Calvert trainer is 29.17% from 48 runs at these conditions. Composite R1 at 24.36% is solid but speed rank is the stronger predictor here.
T1:23.02% T2:21.43% T3:18.65% T4:21.03% T6:varies
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Nowsnotthetime | 40 | 100 | Closer |
2Comer Penny | 50 | 41 | All-Rounder |
3Nothing In Ya | 54 | 19 | All-Rounder |
4Moss Solo | 4 | 100 | Closer |
6Splitting Hairs | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.