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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Madabout Racerd 3y 4 | C D Marston — 15% R452 W67 P207 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 48 | 26 (2) | 23 (6) | 35 (3) | 40 (2) | 38 (3) | 34 (5) | 47 (6) | 47 (3) | 39 (5) | - | 49 | 40 | 28 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 1 | 13/8F | |
| 2 | ▶ Ice Cool Babyb 2y 35 | G A Griffiths — 20% R163 W32 P79 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 50 | 34 (5) | 27 (6) | 30 (5) | 58 (1) | 30 (5) | 43 (3) | 34 (5) | 42 (3) | 57 (1) | 47 (4) | 22 | 43 | 25 | 31 | 40 | 37 | 5 | 5/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Black Scorpiond 3y 17 | C Jones — 13% R307 W39 P142 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 52 | 27 (6) | 37 (5) | 41 (4) | 45 (1) | 56 (4) | 52 (1) | 41 (1) | 33 (3) | 45 (6) | - | 42 | 21 | - | 34 | 47 | 42 | 2 | 10/3 | |
| 4 | ▶ Winnie Marieb 3y 5 | J B Thompson — 19% R518 W97 P283 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 38 | 50 (2) | 51 (1) | 40 (5) | 32 (1) | 31 (2) | 35 (3) | 33 (5) | 38 (4) | - | - | 38 | 39 | 36 | 36 | 43 | 41 | 4 | 5/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Michaels Dreamd 4y 37 | G A Griffiths — 20% R163 W32 P79 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 51 | 29 (6) | 41 (4) | 30 (6) | 34 (6) | 44 (3) | 53 (1) | 40 (3) | 45 (3) | 39 (4) | 44 (2) | 33 | 30 | 32 | 28 | 45 | 40 | 3 | 10/3 | |
| 6 | ▶ Drumdoit Milod 3y 4 | J B Thompson — 19% R518 W97 P283 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 49 | 29 (5) | 41 (2) | 45 (2) | 38 (3) | 19 (6) | 32 (3) | 28 (5) | 40 (3) | 37 (4) | 52 (1) | 31 | 25 | - | 25 | 39 | 35 | 6 | 9/1 | |
Madabout Racer is the Pred1 projected winner despite the structural data not being overwhelmingly in his favour. He's a Closer (EP46, CS72) with the best suitability profile in the field — trap 49, track 40, distance 44, class 28 — suggesting he handles these specific conditions well. His avgPerf of 44 is second-best, and his A8 form has been competitive: P42 for 4th, P44 for 3rd, P53 for 2nd in his last three at this grade. He won at A9 (P36) showing he's capable of getting his head in front. Trainer CD Marston at 22% is solid. The concern is his last run — a 264m trial (P15) which tells us nothing about his 480m readiness. His T1 draw wins 18.15% from 292 runs, which is marginally above expected but a long way below the dominant T3 at 26.64%. As a Closer from the rail, he'll save ground through the bends and close in the home straight — Monmore's fair layout suits his profile.
The danger with the strongest structural case: dominant trap, best avgPerf, best early pace. The extreme Fader profile and untested A8 winning form are the risks. If he can build a big enough early lead from T3, the fade may not matter — but the three Closers behind him say otherwise.
Inconsistent with ability flashes. The A8 win (P58) shows he can compete at this grade on his day, but the A7 failures and low avgPerf make him unreliable. Not a credible threat unless he reproduces his best.
Consistent A8 performer with the strongest closing speed but the worst bend rating. She's always thereabouts but has yet to win at this grade. The right race to close into with a Fader setting pace, but needs that fade to be extreme enough to reel in.
Best speed and consistent form but drawn in the worst trap. He'll need to overcome the T5 structural disadvantage with superior closing ability. A viable each-way contender but the draw limits his win chances.
Arriving on a two-race winning streak but all at lower grades. The lowest avgPerf and worst suitability in the field make the A8 step up a genuine concern. Would need significant improvement to feature.
LOW SEPARATION — composite R1 wins 21.85% vs R3 at 19.01%, a gap of just 2.84pp. T3 is emphatically dominant at 26.64% from 259 runs — nearly 10pp above expected. The dog in T3 (Black Scorpion) has the best avgPerf and a Fader profile that gets early position. The pick sits in T1 at 18.15% which is marginally above expected but well below the T3 signal.
T1:18.15%(292) T2:19.69%(259) T3:26.64%(259) T4:17.60%(267) T5:15.04%(246) T6:16.85%(273)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Madabout Racer | 46 | 72 | Closer |
2Ice Cool Baby | 52 | 40 | All-Rounder |
3Black Scorpion | 67 | 6 | Fader |
4Winnie Marie | 38 | 85 | Closer |
5Michaels Dream | 50 | 60 | Closer |
6Drumdoit Milo | 50 | 39 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.