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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ballyhealy Starb 3y 7 | J B Thompson — 19% R518 W97 P283 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 100 | 65 (2) | 47 (5) | 80 (1) | 55 (5) | 44 (5) | 45 (1) | 58 (6) | 50 (5) | 66 (2) | 40 (3) | 49 | 60 | 51 | 43 | 48 | 49 | 2 | 10/3 | |
| 2 | ▶ Whisky Mand 3y 34 | N J Hunt — 19% R372 W72 P205 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 100 | 61 (6) | 44 (6) | 31 (3) | 62 (4) | 70 (2) | 72 (3) | 91 (1) | 77 (3) | 66 (4) | 53 (5) | 27 | 63 | 14 | 27 | 70 | 59 | 1 | 5/2F | |
| 3 | ▶ Good Maverickd 3y 8 | K Billingham-hine — 19% R609 W113 P343 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 39 | 86 (1) | 58 (4) | 61 (3) | 86 (1) | 74 (3) | 66 (3) | 83 (1) | 64 (3) | 65 (5) | - | 45 | 39 | 49 | 36 | 64 | 56 | 3 | 9/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Catchem Flawlessd 3y 6 | K Billingham-hine — 19% R609 W113 P343 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 39 | 65 (3) | 77 (1) | 63 (3) | 64 (3) | 59 (3) | 53 (4) | 73 (2) | 59 (4) | 63 (3) | 68 (3) | 38 | 31 | 37 | 28 | 68 | 56 | 4 | 9/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Ruinthelonggamed 3y 26 | G A Griffiths — 20% R163 W32 P79 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 51 | 38 (3) | 42 (2) | 43 (1) | 57 (2) | 31 (6) | 53 (4) | 38 (3) | 60 (2) | 67 (2) | 50 (6) | 35 | 42 | 40 | 38 | 52 | 47 | 6 | 7/2 | |
| 6 | ▶ Carmac Peted 3y 7 | N J Hunt — 19% R372 W72 P205 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 49 | 45 (5) | 47 (6) | 81 (1) | 55 (3) | 60 (5) | 79 (4) | 100 (1) | 51 (5) | 78 (1) | 38 (6) | 41 | 41 | 23 | 36 | 62 | 54 | 5 | 5/1 | |
Whisky Man is the Pred1 projected winner and the class case is compelling. His avgPerf of 70 is the best in the field by 2 points, but it's his recent OR form that sets him apart: P91 winning at OR over 400m and P77 for 3rd at OR over 480m — these are performances that put him multiple grades above this A3 company. He's an extreme Fader (EP100, CS0, bend 100) who will absolutely dominate the early pace and lead through the first two bends. The concern is that CS0 means he will fade dramatically through bends 3 and 4, and with three genuine Closers behind him (Catchem Flawless CS84, Good Maverick CS100, Carmac Pete CS55), the closing pressure will be significant. However, the CLASS OVERRIDE principle applies: at 11 points above the field average, his early lead may be so large that even fading, nobody catches him. Trainer NJ Hunt at 14% is below average. His T2 draw wins 18.58% from 183 runs — marginally above expected. His track suitability of 63 is strong.
The danger with the best speed and most consistent A3 form. Her Closer profile is ideally suited to exploiting the hot pace set by the two Faders. If Whisky Man fades far enough, she has the speed to catch him.
Shares the extreme early pace profile with the pick but without the class. The lowest avgPerf and worst speed mean he'll set the pace for others to run at, then fade. One for the pacemaker role only.
Pure Closer who'll benefit from the blistering early pace set by the two Faders. His A3 win (P84) shows he can capitalise, but the EP28 and bend 39 mean he gives too much early ground to catch a class act like Whisky Man.
In the dominant trap with improving form but the class gap to the pick and danger is significant. A place possibility on the structural edge but not a winning chance.
Former A1 performer with a P90 peak but drawn in a dead trap with declining recent form. The class is there historically but the current trajectory and structural disadvantage make him hard to support.
LOW SEPARATION at A3 grade (R1:17.91% vs R3:13.60% = 4.3pp gap). However, the pick has a CLASS OVERRIDE — avgP 70 is 11 points above the field average of ~59, with P91 at OR and P77 at OR. This class edge can overwhelm pace concerns even with CS0. T5 is the dominant trap but the occupant (Ruinthelonggame, avgP 52) doesn't have the class to exploit it.
T1:17.31%(156) T2:18.58%(183) T3:19.62%(158) T4:17.81%(146) T5:21.30%(108) T6:13.33%(120)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Ballyhealy Star | 100 | 0 | Fader |
2Whisky Man | 100 | 0 | Fader |
3Good Maverick | 28 | 100 | Closer |
4Catchem Flawless | 42 | 84 | Closer |
5Ruinthelonggame | 53 | 45 | All-Rounder |
6Carmac Pete | 47 | 55 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.