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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Winterfield Moob 5y 14 | C Jones — 13% R307 W39 P142 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 23 (3) | 20 (5) | 30 (1) | 20 (5) | 31 (1) | 25 (3) | 17 (6) | 19 (6) | 28 (2) | 21 (5) | 30 | 31 | 30 | 32 | 22 | 25 | 3 | 9/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ Richies Rocketb 2y 5 | M J Russell — 14% R179 W25 P91 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | - | 25 (4) | 19 (6) | 26 (3) | 20 (5) | 25 (4) | 31 (2) | 29 (3) | 24 (3) | 22 (5) | 29 (2) | 33 | 33 | 47 | 44 | 27 | 30 | 1 | 8/13F | |
| 3 | ▶ Kilara Jagd 3y 8 | J M Walton — 20% R244 W49 P128 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 30 (1) | 31 (1) | 28 (2) | 26 (3) | 28 (3) | 32 (1) | 24 (4) | 30 (1) | 26 (3) | 15 (6) | 41 | 27 | 31 | 27 | 24 | 27 | 2 | 10/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Dellser Snapb 3y 24 | C D Marston — 15% R452 W67 P207 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 14 (5) | 17 (5) | 21 (5) | 16 (6) | 15 (6) | 24 (3) | 20 (5) | 15 (6) | 20 (5) | 27 (4) | 43 | 35 | 34 | 35 | 21 | 27 | 4 | 12/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Homerun Houndd 3y 4 | C D Marston — 15% R452 W67 P207 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 20 (4) | 28 (2) | 16 (6) | 14 (5) | 25 (3) | 27 (3) | 24 (4) | 20 (5) | 27 (2) | 14 (6) | 25 | 30 | 39 | 31 | 22 | 24 | 6 | 9/2 | |
| 6 | ▶ Pay On Timeb 2y 6 | J M Walton — 20% R244 W49 P128 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 25 (3) | 22 (4) | 26 (2) | 26 (3) | 23 (4) | 31 (1) | 23 (4) | 27 (3) | 17 (6) | 22 (5) | 22 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 22 | 21 | 5 | 7/1 | |
Richies Rocket is the Pred1 projected winner and the case is built on an extraordinary speed advantage: 60 vs 51 for the next best — a 9-point gap that is the largest single-metric edge on the entire Monmore card. In a 264m sprint where speed is the primary determinant, this advantage is massive. His avgPerf of 27 is the best in the field, his distance suitability of 44 is field-best, and his class suitability of 47 is field-best — reflecting D3 form where he's been competitive (P22, P29, P27). He was beaten last time at D4 (P24 for 3rd) which shows he's not invulnerable, but his D3 experience represents a significant class edge over this D4 field. T2 wins 17.88% from 274 runs — near expected with no structural advantage. Trainer MJ Russell at 16% is modest. Despite the neutral trap, the speed superiority in a sprint is the kind of structural edge that transcends trap position.
The danger on dominant trap position and second-best speed. The individual suitability is poor but the aggregate T6 signal and speed make him the most likely beneficiary if the pick underperforms.
Inside draw but lacking the speed and form to compete with the pick. A mid-pack runner who might place if others have trouble but won't win on merit.
Recent D4 winner with decent form but drawn in a dead trap with a massive speed deficit to the pick. The structural headwind from T3 and the speed gap make him hard to support.
Best individual trap suitability but worst avgPerf and second-worst speed. The physical deficit is too large for suitability alone to overcome. Not competitive.
Worst speed in the field is an insurmountable disadvantage in a 264m sprint. D4 experience counts for little when you can't match the raw pace.
NORMAL SEPARATION (R1:23.70% vs R3:18.26% = 5.44pp) — the composite has genuine predictive value at D4 264m. T6 is dominant at 21.31% from 352 runs. The pick sits in T2 (17.88%) — near expected, no structural advantage but no disadvantage either. The pick's overwhelming speed advantage (60 vs 51 for the next best) is the strongest single-metric edge on the entire Monmore card.
T1:19.11%(246) T2:17.88%(274) T3:13.88%(353) T4:16.67%(360) T5:18.72%(390) T6:21.31%(352)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 264m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.