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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Bogger Unab 3y 6 | N J Hunt — 20% R367 W72 P203 Trainer form — last 3 months | 54 | 44 | 52 (3) | 50 (4) | 88 (3) | 81 (3) | 72 (4) | 73 (5) | 76 (1) | 58 (2) | 55 (6) | 69 (1) | 41 | 36 | 16 | 39 | 65 | 56 | 2 | 10/3 | ||
| 2 | ▶ Heaven Reversedb 2y 9 | J B Thompson — 18% R514 W95 P282 Trainer form — last 3 months | 46 | 59 | 69 (1) | 48 (4) | 56 (3) | 35 (5) | 63 (1) | 45 (5) | 47 (5) | 54 (4) | 72 (5) | - | 43 | 55 | 23 | 44 | 53 | 51 | 1 | 6/1 | ||
| 3 | ▶ Ayle Bucksd 3y 26 | J M Walton — 21% R243 W50 P128 Trainer form — last 3 months | 49 | 54 | 37 (4) | 70 (1) | 50 (4) | 53 (5) | 69 (1) | 56 (3) | 33 (6) | 33 (2) | 32 (2) | 36 (1) | 35 | 55 | 27 | 45 | 46 | 46 | 5 | 7/1 | ||
| 4 | ▶ Magical Orlandod 4y 26 | M J Russell — 14% R178 W25 P91 Trainer form — last 3 months | 51 | 38 | 55 (4) | 69 (1) | 62 (2) | 54 (4) | 54 (2) | 59 (2) | 58 (3) | 50 (4) | 58 (3) | 64 (2) | 35 | 34 | 27 | 34 | 59 | 50 | 6 | 6/1 | ||
| 5 | ▶ Links Baybb 2y 26 | G A Griffiths — 18% R161 W29 P76 Trainer form — last 3 months | 52 | 49 | 63 (2) | 52 (4) | 57 (3) | 55 (3) | 69 (1) | 45 (5) | 41 (6) | 63 (1) | 51 (4) | 45 (5) | 45 | 38 | - | 39 | 54 | 49 | 4 | 9/1 | ||
| 6 | ▶ Aero Fumib 2y 19 | R Taberner — 20% R713 W142 P416 Trainer form — last 3 months | 52 | 54 | 83 (1) | 76 (2) | 44 (6) | 43 (1) | 56 (6) | 53 (5) | 66 (5) | 74 (6) | - | - | 30 | 42 | 28 | 42 | 56 | 50 | 3 | 10/11F | ||
Heaven Reversed is the Pred1 projected winner but the structural case for him is weak. His avgPerf of 53 is fourth of six — 12 points below the danger Bogger Una — and his form has been declining: P45, P47, P54 in his last three after P72 and P75 wins at A5/A6. He's a Fader (EP60, CS19) who'll lead through the first bend with a decent bend rating of 59, and his track suitability of 55 from the snapshot is the best individual suitability score in the field. But T2 wins just 17.13% from 251 runs — below expected — and the composite is INVERTED at A5 grade (R3 beats R1), meaning the prediction model's ranking has no historical validity at this grade/track/distance combination. Trainer JB Thompson at 34% is the best handler on the card. The pick stands as the official projection, but the analysis strongly suggests Bogger Una is the more likely winner.
AI PICK recommendation — the best dog in the dominant trap with a 12-point class edge over the predicted winner. The extreme Closer profile is the only concern, but on Monmore's fair track with honest pace ahead, she should close strongly enough to win.
Weakest runner in a dead trap. The combination of lowest avgPerf and worst structural position makes him hard to support at any price. One to oppose.
Consistent mid-grade performer with decent closing speed but worst bend and below-average suitability. Will close late but from too far back to catch the principals.
Rising from A6 with balanced pace but untested at A5. The step up may be too much against dogs with higher-grade experience. A place possibility at best.
In a dominant trap with consistent A5 form and a balanced profile. A genuine place contender and arguably the second-best winning chance behind Bogger Una. The co-dominant trap and steady form make him a solid each-way proposition.
INVERTED COMPOSITE — R3 (22.38%) beats R1 (17.55%) at A5 grade. The composite has ZERO predictive value here — the third-ranked dog wins more often than the first-ranked. Trap bias is the only reliable signal: T1 and T6 dominate. The pick (T2) is in a below-expected trap (17.13%) while the best dog (Bogger Una, avgP 65) sits in the dominant T1 (21.89%). This is the weakest structural case for a pick on the entire card.
T1:21.89%(265) T2:17.13%(251) T3:14.69%(286) T4:18.26%(241) T5:17.74%(186) T6:21.68%(226)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Bogger Una | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Heaven Reversed | 60 | 19 | Fader |
3Ayle Bucks | 57 | 30 | Fader |
4Magical Orlando | 44 | 68 | Closer |
5Links Bayb | 50 | 54 | All-Rounder |
6Aero Fumi | 50 | 46 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.