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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Bizarre Barryd 3y 7 | M J Russell — 14% R179 W25 P91 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 48 | 45 (5) | 78 (1) | 73 (1) | 56 (5) | 65 (3) | 64 (3) | 72 (1) | 57 (2) | - | - | 51 | 40 | - | 44 | 65 | 58 | 2 | 4/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Aero Tempob 2yREP 18 | R Taberner — 20% R722 W142 P418 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 49 | 42 (1) | 81 (1) | 74 (2) | 76 (1) | 49 (5) | 59 (4) | 23 (6) | 49 (6) | 63 (3) | 54 (3) | 58 | 42 | 56 | 42 | 56 | 53 | 3 | 9/4 | |
| 3 | ▶ Aero Hypernovad 2y 26 | R Taberner — 20% R722 W142 P418 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 55 | 66 (2) | 62 (4) | 52 (3) | 58 (5) | 73 (4) | 79 (1) | 64 (3) | 56 (4) | 73 (1) | 65 (2) | 58 | 54 | - | 42 | 61 | 58 | 1 | 13/8F | |
| 5 | ▶ Winterfield Birdb 2y 7 | C Jones — 13% R307 W39 P142 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 55 | 58 (3) | 50 (2) | 53 (3) | 48 (5) | 43 (6) | 50 (4) | 67 (2) | 49 (5) | 56 (5) | 50 (5) | 34 | 33 | 43 | 31 | 59 | 50 | 4 | 7/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Tree Top Copperd 3y 35 | A K Jenkins — 16% R192 W31 P103 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 46 | 42 (4) | 33 (6) | 46 (5) | 41 (6) | 47 (5) | 78 (1) | 66 (2) | 57 (4) | 77 (1) | 57 (2) | 37 | 41 | 45 | 35 | 58 | 51 | 5 | 10/3 | |
Aero Hypernova is the Pred1 projected winner despite being drawn in T4 which wins just 15.12% from 205 runs — borderline dead. The case for him rests on his suitability profile: trap suitability 58 and track suitability 54 are both field-best by clear margins, suggesting he specifically handles Monmore 480m from T4 well despite the aggregate trap data. He's an All-Rounder (EP50, CS50) with perfectly balanced pace, which is ideal for Monmore's fair track. His form shows genuine ability — P73 winning at A5 and P65 for 2nd at A5 — and he was competitive on his A4 debut (P56 for 4th). His speed (50) and bend (55) are mid-pack to decent. Trainer R Taberner at 18% has another runner in this race. The prediction model has weighted his individual suitability over the aggregate trap data, and with NORMAL separation (R1:22.2%), the composite has genuine predictive power at this grade.
The danger with the dominant trap and best avgPerf but critically limited experience (just 2 competitive races). The structural case is the strongest in the field — if he's as good as his early form suggests, T1 at 25% makes him very hard to oppose.
Best speed in the field with a strong A5 win but returning from absence. The Closer profile suits Monmore but the layoff makes him an uncertain proposition. Could feature if fully fit.
Back-to-back A4 winner but on a declining trajectory. The Fader profile means she'll lead early but the recent poor runs (P50, P45) suggest the edge has gone. Needs to bounce back to feature.
Decent form but the worst speed and bend in the field limit his Fader effectiveness. The moderate closing speed ratio (39) means he'll fade without building enough early buffer. Hard to see a path to victory.
NORMAL SEPARATION (R1:22.20% vs R3:15.92% = 6.28pp) gives the composite genuine predictive value at A4. However, the pick is in T4 (15.12%) — the weakest trap and borderline dead. T1 is emphatically dominant at 25% from 200 runs, and Bizarre Barry sits there with the best avgPerf (65). This creates tension between the prediction and the structural data.
T1:25.00%(200) T2:18.30%(224) T3:20.69%(203) T4:15.12%(205) T5:18.06%(155) T6:16.57%(169)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Bizarre Barry | 44 | 59 | Closer |
2Aero Tempo | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Aero Hypernova | 49 | 58 | Closer |
5Winterfield Bird | 57 | 37 | Fader |
6Tree Top Copper | 53 | 47 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.