The most consistent dog in the race — her last six runs all rated between 57 and 65, and she's placed in five of her seven course and distance starts. Third here last week. The snag is she hasn't actually won any of them, and her best time leaves three lengths to the two principals. She'll likely be in the frame again; getting past the two quick ones is the harder ask.

Arrives with the best recent form line after the principals — 66 and 75-rated runs at A4 grade, a level above today's — and a course win among his ten starts at the trip. On class alone he's a big player dropping down. But the draw wrecks it: trap 2 wins barely one in ten at this grade, and his times sit a length or two off Noah and Aoife. Grade-dropper, wrong box.

Eugene Corkery's runners win at 33% — the best trainer figure on the card — and this one placed third at this level a fortnight ago with a 68-rated run before that. But the profile is patchy: one win from ten course and distance starts, a best time that's the second-slowest here, and ratings that have swung from 35 to 68 inside five runs. The kennel form is the argument; the dog's own numbers don't quite back it up.

Gets the statistically best box at the grade and has been running at A4, a level above this. But the form itself is modest — fifth last time, one win from ten course and distance runs, and ratings mostly in the 40s and low 50s with one 63 spike. Her best time leaves four lengths to the leaders. The draw gives her a puncher's chance of a place; the clock says the win is beyond her.