An 84-rated performance three starts back is the second-biggest recent figure in the field, and two wins from ten course and distance runs give him proper local credentials. Rated 65 on average with his form gained at A3 and A4. The concerns are a lowest-in-field speed rating bar one and a last run that rated just 58 in fifth. The rail wins a healthy 19.1% at this grade, so the draw helps — he needs to rediscover that 84 to trouble the selection though.

Two wins from just five course and distance starts is a tidy strike rate, and the 81-rated run among those five shows real ability — form good enough that two condition-based models side with him. But his last run rated just 50 in fifth, his speed rating sits mid-pack, and with only five career runs the sample is thin. The improving-youngster angle is genuine; this is a deep race to prove it in.

Shares the fastest single clocking in the field at 28.95 and has spent her entire recent career at A1 and A2 — a 92-rated run six starts back is the kind of form nothing else here can reference. But she's been beaten in all six of those runs, rating in the 40s and 50s in the last four, and now she's dropped to A3 from a box that wins barely one in nine at this grade. Classic case of a classy dog on the slide: the drop in grade could spark her, but the draw and the trend say she's opposable.

Another with A2 credentials — an 86-rated run five starts back and the field's fastest best time at 28.93 — but like Airfield Katie the recent trend is downward, with her last three rating 52, 60 and 58 in defeat. Two wins from ten course and distance runs. The wide box wins only 12.2% at this grade, and on current form she's running four or five points below what this race needs. Her peak wins it; nothing lately suggests the peak is coming back this week.