The model's top-ranked dog, but the ranking flatters him — it leans heavily on his liking for this draw and grade rather than raw ability. His figures tell the other story: a 58 average that's among the lowest here, one win from ten course and distance runs, and a last run rated 54 in fifth. The 75-rated run two starts back at A6 is his ceiling, and it came a grade below this. Well drawn on the rail, and that's the extent of the case.

The structural play: drawn in trap 3, the best box at this grade, with Eugene Corkery's 33% kennel behind her and 80 and 78-rated runs within her last three. Two wins and four placings from ten course and distance starts. The catch is the most recent evidence — a fourth here last week rated 55, and a best time that sits fourth in this field. Her peak form from a fortnight ago wins this race; her run from last week doesn't. With that draw and that kennel she's impossible to dismiss and the each-way angle of the race.

Won at A5 rated 79 five weeks ago and backed it with a 78 before that, so the recent peak form is genuine, and John Gerard Cronin's kennel wins at 23%. Second-best speed rating in the race too. But she hasn't run since 12 June, the layoff mirroring Molly's, and trap 5 wins just 12.8% at this grade. Two wins from ten at the trip. If she's fit she's a player — the box and the absence are two taxes her rivals aren't paying.

Two 78-rated runs in her last three tell you the engine exists, and she's won two of her five course and distance starts. But her last run was a disaster — sixth, rated 29, clocking 31.23, the slowest recent time in the field by a distance — and her speed rating is the lowest in the race. Something went badly wrong last week; until she shows it was a one-off, the wide box at 11.2% and that clocking make her easy to pass over.