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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Vixons Bagheerad 5y 17 | C D Marston — 17% R451 W75 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 54 | 42 (3) | 38 (3) | 37 (6) | 40 (5) | 32 (6) | 46 (5) | 45 (5) | 62 (1) | 48 (4) | 47 (3) | 30 | 29 | 15 | 11 | 42 | 50 | 2 | 3/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Aero Bluebellb 2y 24 | R Taberner — 18% R742 W134 P412 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | 51 | 28 (4) | 28 (2) | 32 (1) | 30 (5) | 52 (1) | 50 (6) | 22 (1) | - | - | - | 35 | 38 | 11 | 34 | 39 | 37 | 5 | 9/4JF | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Blue Woodyb 3y 7 | K Billingham-hine — 19% R570 W110 P316 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 59 | 37 (4) | 52 (1) | 41 (3) | 38 (3) | 36 (3) | 41 (4) | 65 (2) | 43 (4) | 41 (4) | - | 35 | 21 | 14 | 22 | 45 | 49 | 4 | 6/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Mags Bolgerd 3y 12 | J B Thompson — 18% R535 W97 P307 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 49 | 41 (2) | 42 (5) | 53 (1) | 46 (2) | 48 (2) | 30 (3) | 28 (4) | 21 (5) | 18 (5) | 37 (5) | 27 | 23 | 37 | 38 | 47 | 49 | 3 | 4/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Noduff Deltad 2y 16 | C S Fereday — 16% R473 W77 P241 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 44 | 52 (2) | 38 (6) | 62 (1) | 48 (3) | 58 (1) | 39 (5) | 43 (3) | 52 (1) | 49 (1) | 37 (4) | 28 | 31 | 26 | 42 | 49 | 53 | 1 | 9/4JF | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Drumdoit Milod 4y 24 | J B Thompson — 18% R535 W97 P307 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 43 | 41 (3) | 36 (4) | 53 (1) | 45 (2) | 48 (1) | 41 (2) | 29 (5) | 41 (2) | 45 (2) | 38 (3) | 28 | 26 | 5 | 41 | 41 | 43 | 6 | 14/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vixons Bagheera | 29.25 | 29.58 | 29.51 | 53 | +0.26 | 1 win from 10 | |
| 2 | Aero Bluebell | Last run was over 264m - times not directly comparable. | — | Dropping from D3 sprint | ||||
| 3 | Blue Woody | 29.30 | 29.62 | 29.20 | 51 | -0.10 | Best trap in grade | |
| 4 | Mags Bolger | 29.20 | 29.55 | 29.35 | 53 | +0.15 | Worst trap in grade | |
| 5 | Noduff Delta | 29.15 | 29.50 | 29.30 | 57 | +0.15 | Fastest + 4 C&D wins | |
| 6 | Drumdoit Milo | 29.60 | 29.90 | 29.75 | 44 | +0.15 | Model pick | |
Monmore's 480m trip looks fair on paper but the track still carries a trap edge - trap 3 has been the standout box in A8 company this year at just over a quarter of winners, while trap 4 has struggled to one in eight. Middle-grade racing at Monmore is notoriously hard to call from the ratings alone, so this looks a race for the dog with genuine pace and a proven record over course and distance rather than the raw numbers. Noduff Delta ticks both those boxes from trap 5 and should be involved from the boxes, with Mags Bolger and Blue Woody the ones capable of making it competitive if she doesn't have things her own way.
The fastest dog in the field on recent times and rated the best of this six on current form, and she backs that up with four wins from ten runs at this exact course and distance - by far the strongest record in the race. Form has been up and down (52, 38, 62, 48, 58, 39) but the peak of 62 shows she has more than enough for this level, and she was placed second last time out. Trap 5 isn't the strongest draw at Monmore but the class and pace edge here look enough to compensate.
Drawn in the box that has produced more A8 winners at Monmore over this trip than any other, over a quarter of the time. Won last time out at the higher A9 grade and has the pace to lead a fair way, even if her overall course and distance record here is modest at one win from nine. The draw alone makes her the biggest threat to the selection.
Been racing consistently at this exact level without threatening to win, third in both of her last two starts here. Only one win from ten runs over this course and distance and the numbers put her mid-pack on both speed and recent form. Hard to see her improving enough to trouble the front two.
Drops back in from a sprint at Monmore's tightest trip and the switch to 480m is a step into the unknown on recent evidence, though she does have two wins from five previous runs at this course and distance. Trainer Hutt has a useful record with this string. On modest recent form it's a lot to ask her to find the pace for this company.
Sets the fastest recent times in the field and matches the top pick on the speed figures, with a fifth-place finish last time out not doing her justice on the clock. The concern is the draw - trap 4 has been the weakest box in this grade at Monmore by some distance. Capable of running well but needs traffic to break the right way.
Finished fourth last time out and sits toward the bottom of this field on both speed and recent form. Two wins from ten course and distance runs is a moderate record and there's little here to suggest she can trouble the pace-setters. More of a makeweight than a genuine player.
Key insight: Trap 3 is comfortably the best box in A8 grade at Monmore over 480m (25.7% from 308 runs), while trap 4 is the one to avoid (13.4%). The top-rated dog only wins around one in five here, so this is a grade where pace and proven course and distance form carry real weight.
T1:16.0% T2:19.8% T3:25.7% T4:13.4% T5:16.3% T6:17.0%
1,864 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Vixons Bagheera | 51 | 51 | All-Rounder |
2Aero Bluebell | 52 | 40 | All-Rounder |
3Blue Woody | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Mags Bolger | 53 | 49 | All-Rounder |
5Noduff Delta | 47 | 65 | Closer |
6Drumdoit Milo | 49 | 44 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 264m | 480m | 630m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vixons Bagheera | — | 0.616 | — |
| 2 | Aero Bluebell | 0.606 | 0.622 | — |
| 3 | Blue Woody | — | 0.618 | 0.629 |
| 4 | Mags Bolger | 0.618 | 0.615 | — |
| 5 | Noduff Delta | — | 0.613 | — |
| 6 | Drumdoit Milo | — | 0.618 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.