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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tommys Lunab 2y 3 | C S Fereday — 16% R473 W77 P241 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 23 (3) | 25 (2) | 23 (3) | 51 (1) | 47 (1) | 26 (5) | 36 (3) | 33 (4) | 40 (2) | 31 (3) | 41 | 19 | 26 | 25 | 22 | 40 | 1 | 13/8F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Fourpenny Jillb 2y 8 | D J Page — 22% R117 W26 P64 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 36 (1) | 20 (4) | 22 (3) | 20 (4) | 10 (6) | 30 (1) | 26 (6) | 38 (3) | 36 (6) | 51 (1) | 20 | 26 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 34 | 3 | 5/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Catunda Apollod 5y 22 | J M Walton — 16% R222 W36 P104 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 23 (3) | 17 (5) | 15 (6) | 22 (3) | 20 (4) | 21 (2) | 20 (5) | 21 (2) | 26 (4) | - | 21 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 20 | 37 | 5 | 28/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Winterfield Babyb 3y 15 | C Jones — 16% R255 W41 P129 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | - | 20 (5) | 18 (5) | 22 (3) | 26 (2) | 31 (1) | 16 (6) | 43 (6) | 43 (4) | 31 (4) | - | 21 | 22 | 20 | 17 | 22 | 40 | 4 | 9/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Tullymurry Ottod 4y 23 | J B Thompson — 18% R535 W97 P307 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | - | 25 (2) | 22 (4) | 21 (4) | 20 (6) | 32 (1) | 16 (6) | 12 (5) | 23 (3) | 18 (5) | 36 (6) | 20 | 26 | 15 | 20 | 22 | 40 | 2 | 15/8 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Mucky Dannod 2y 16 | C D Marston — 17% R451 W75 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 30 | - | 15 (6) | 16 (6) | 33 (5) | 49 (1) | 19 (6) | 38 (3) | 37 (4) | 31 (5) | 47 (1) | 24 (6) | 23 | 21 | 20 | 23 | 15 | 23 | 6 | 20/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tommys Luna | 16.15 | 16.35 | 16.20 | 53 | +0.05 | Best trap + early pace | |
| 2 | Fourpenny Jill | 16.25 | 16.50 | 16.40 | 46 | +0.15 | Best early pace | |
| 3 | Catunda Apollo | 16.30 | 16.45 | 16.28 | 49 | -0.02 | 0 wins from 10 | |
| 4 | Winterfield Baby | 16.05 | 16.30 | 16.30 | 54 | +0.25 | Fastest, worst trap in grade | |
| 5 | Tullymurry Otto | 16.10 | 16.32 | 16.25 | 54 | +0.15 | Closer at a sprint trip | |
| 6 | Mucky Danno | 16.55 | 16.80 | 16.70 | 30 | +0.15 | Slowest in field |
Monmore's 264m sprint plays a completely different game to the 480m trip - this is a tight track over the minimum distance and the formula that wins races here is simple: get to the first bend in front from the inside trap. Trap 1 has been the standout box in this grade, and the dog with early pace from the rail has a huge structural edge before the traps even open. Tommys Luna ticks both boxes from trap 1 with genuine early pace, while Winterfield Baby brings the best turn of foot in the field from the next box out and looks the biggest danger if the favourite doesn't lead.
Drawn in the box that dominates this grade at the minimum trip and has the early pace to use it, which is exactly the winning formula at Monmore's tight 264m circuit. Placed second last time out and her form has been steady, if unspectacular, across her last six runs. Course and distance experience is limited to three runs without a win, but the trap and pace combination is the single biggest factor at this distance and she has both.
The fastest dog in the field on recent times and a genuine front runner by pace profile, which is exactly the running style that suits Monmore's tight sprint circuit. The drawback is the draw - trap 4 has been the weakest box in this grade at this trip. Trainer form is the best of this six at 24%, and if she gets any sort of run to the bend her pace should carry her a long way.
Has the sharpest early pace of anyone in this field, which matters hugely at Monmore's tight sprint trip, and she does have a win from five course and distance runs. Fourth last time out but tends to weaken once past the opening exchanges. Would need the fast start to hold for the whole way.
Ten runs at this course and distance without a win, though two of those have been places. Third last time out and consistent without ever threatening to break through. Nothing in the profile stands out enough to fancy her over the pace-minded types drawn better.
Matches the fastest recent times in the field but her running style is that of a dog who comes from off the pace, which is a tough combination at a track where the sprint trip rewards front-runners almost exclusively. Placed second last time out. Would need a truly slow early gallop from the front two to have any real say.
Well below the rest of this field on recent times and finished last of the six runners last time out. Drawn in a modest box for this grade too. Hard to construct any case for her on the figures available.
Key insight: Trap 1 is the best box in D4 grade over the sprint trip (19.9% from 362 runs), and the top-rated dog performs unusually well here at 24.2% - well above the track's middle-grade average. Early pace from the inside is the winning formula at this trip.
T1:19.9% T2:19.5% T3:16.6% T4:15.4% T5:17.4% T6:17.2%
2,615 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 264m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 264m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (264m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 264m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tommys Luna | 0.616 | 0.624 |
| 2 | Fourpenny Jill | 0.623 | 0.621 |
| 3 | Catunda Apollo | 0.625 | — |
| 4 | Winterfield Baby | 0.620 | 0.619 |
| 5 | Tullymurry Otto | 0.623 | 0.619 |
| 6 | Mucky Danno | 0.634 | 0.624 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.