Loading...
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Aero Greatestb 2y 4 | R Taberner — 18% R742 W134 P412 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 45 | 50 (1) | 36 (4) | 39 (2) | 39 (4) | 34 (4) | 48 (2) | 38 (4) | 35 (3) | 33 (6) | 31 (5) | 32 | 7 | - | 26 | 40 | 46 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Bluey Hillsd 4y 23 | D J Page — 22% R117 W26 P64 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 53 | 42 (3) | 40 (4) | 34 (5) | 52 (3) | 28 (3) | 52 (2) | 44 (5) | 51 (3) | 48 (3) | 51 (3) | 25 | 27 | 3 | 12 | 44 | 44 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Westway Freedomb 1y 8 | J B Thompson — 18% R535 W97 P307 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 59 | 58 (1) | 50 (2) | 50 (3) | 55 (2) | 52 (2) | 38 (4) | 29 (6) | 26 (5) | 37 (1) | 32 (1) | 32 | 41 | 20 | 28 | 47 | 50 | 1 | 15/8 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Tireeb 3y 6 | J M Walton — 16% R222 W36 P104 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 42 | 42 (3) | 45 (3) | 40 (5) | 47 (3) | 44 (5) | 44 (5) | 52 (3) | 44 (5) | 44 (5) | - | 24 | 30 | 21 | 14 | 46 | 45 | 6 | 11/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Aero Dignityb 3y 24 | R Taberner — 18% R742 W134 P412 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 47 | 86 (2) | 55 (2) | 98 (1) | 77 (4) | 46 (3) | 41 (6) | 41 (4) | 54 (2) | 53 (2) | 26 (3) | 24 | 35 | 17 | 31 | 66 | 52 | 2 | 6/5F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Tullymurry Skiesb 1y 7 | J B Thompson — 18% R535 W97 P307 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 69 | 60 (1) | 52 (2) | 53 (5) | 48 (1) | 27 (1) | 42 (5) | 39 (2) | 41 (4) | 42 (2) | - | 2 | 40 | 18 | 44 | 44 | 43 | 3 | 6/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aero Greatest | 29.30 | 29.65 | 29.10 | 49 | -0.20 | Best trainer form | |
| 2 | Bluey Hills | 29.40 | 29.75 | 29.55 | 47 | +0.15 | 0 wins from 9 | |
| 3 | Westway Freedom | 29.15 | 29.45 | 29.25 | 52 | +0.10 | Best trap + sharp pace | |
| 4 | Tiree | 29.35 | 29.65 | 29.40 | 47 | +0.05 | Worst trap in grade | |
| 5 | Aero Dignity | Last two runs were over 630m at OR/S2 grade - not comparable to tonight's 480m. Genuine 480m form reads 55, 46, 41. | — | Rating inflated by 630m form | ||||
| 6 | Tullymurry Skies | 29.25 | 29.60 | 29.30 | 44 | +0.05 | Best C&D record | |
Trap 3 has been the pick of the boxes in A8 grade over Monmore's 480m trip this year at more than a quarter of winners, with trap 4 the weakest. Middle-grade racing at Monmore is genuinely difficult to call off the ratings alone - the model's top pick only wins around one in five here - so this looks a race to lean on genuine recent pace over headline numbers. Westway Freedom brings the sharpest early speed and bend figures in the field from the best trap in the grade, while Aero Dignity's huge rating needs treating with real caution since it's built largely on marathon form over a much longer trip.
Drawn in the box that's produced more than a quarter of A8 winners at this trip - comfortably the best draw in the field. Has the sharpest early pace and best bend figures of any genuine 480m runner here, and was runner-up last time out at the grade above. Course and distance form is unbeaten in the placings from six runs, if still without a win. The combination of the best trap and the sharpest pace in a race that's genuinely hard to separate makes her the fair pick.
The headline rating here is misleading - it's built largely on two runs over 630m, including a big performance in an Open race, which have nothing to do with tonight's 480m test. Her genuine form at this trip reads more modestly: second, third and sixth in her last three runs here, though that runner-up effort came with the fastest time of this whole group. Trainer form is strong at 28%. If she reproduces that one good 480m run rather than the marathon figures, she's dangerous, but the rating needs discounting heavily.
Won last time out stepping up from A10 and the trainer form is the best in the field at 28%. Only one win from ten runs at this exact course and distance though, and trap 1 has been a modest box in this grade. Fastest last-time-out clocking of this group but overall pace sits mid-table.
Nine runs at this course and distance without a win, and third last time out. Sits mid-pack on both speed and current form. Nothing here to suggest she's ready to break her duck against this company.
Placed third last time out and has a solid if unspectacular record at this course and distance with one win from ten runs. The concern is the draw - trap 4 has been comfortably the weakest box in this grade at Monmore. Needs things to fall right just to get a clear run.
Boasts the best course and distance record in the field with two wins and five places from ten runs, and carries the best bend rating of this group too. Placed second last time out. The trap in six isn't ideal at Monmore but the proven record at this exact combination keeps her firmly in the placing conversation.
Key insight: Trap 3 is the standout box in A8 grade at Monmore over 480m (25.7% from 308 runs). The top-rated dog only wins around one in five here, so this is a grade where deep reasoning needs to add genuine value beyond the raw ratings.
T1:16.0% T2:19.8% T3:25.7% T4:13.4% T5:16.3% T6:17.0%
1,864 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Aero Greatest | 47 | 50 | All-Rounder |
2Bluey Hills | 52 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Westway Freedom | 61 | 21 | Fader |
4Tiree | 48 | 60 | Closer |
5Aero Dignity | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Tullymurry Skies | 59 | 12 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 264m | 480m | 630m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aero Greatest | — | 0.619 | — |
| 2 | Bluey Hills | 0.605 | 0.615 | — |
| 3 | Westway Freedom | 0.599 | 0.613 | — |
| 4 | Tiree | — | 0.615 | — |
| 5 | Aero Dignity | 0.608 | 0.611 | 0.615 |
| 6 | Tullymurry Skies | — | 0.616 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.