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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Jimmy Shoe Shined 2y 27 | D J Page — 22% R117 W26 P64 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 86 | 100 | 58 (4) | 53 (2) | 49 (4) | 59 (2) | 58 (3) | 57 (3) | 52 (4) | 59 (1) | 42 (4) | 50 (3) | 26 | 23 | - | - | 53 | 66 | 5 | 9/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Aero Candyb 2y 33 | R Taberner — 18% R742 W134 P412 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 48 | 87 (2) | 92 (1) | 60 (3) | 68 (5) | 56 (5) | 79 (3) | 74 (1) | 93 (1) | 71 (5) | 82 (3) | 46 | 45 | 40 | 30 | 77 | 50 | 1 | 6/4F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Sugar Roseb 3y 47 | K Billingham-hine — 19% R570 W110 P316 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | 42 | 46 (3) | 60 (6) | 73 (3) | 73 (3) | 49 (3) | 93 (1) | 77 (3) | 57 (5) | 61 (6) | 54 (3) | 27 | 21 | 17 | 10 | 63 | 36 | 3 | 5/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Aurora Skyb 3yN/R 15 | G A Griffiths — 23% R157 W36 P74 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 57 | 86 (2) | 77 (3) | 44 (5) | 69 (6) | 93 (1) | 63 (1) | 57 (6) | 75 (1) | 50 (2) | - | 34 | 32 | 26 | 26 | 71 | 51 | - | - | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Drumdoit Murphyd 3y 21 | J B Thompson — 18% R535 W97 P307 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 30 | 71 (2) | 42 (6) | 42 (6) | 76 (3) | 60 (6) | 63 (1) | 43 (4) | 86 (2) | 87 (2) | 58 (1) | 24 | 36 | - | 35 | 59 | 45 | 4 | 11/4 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Swift Eaglestoned 4y 26 | K Billingham-hine — 19% R570 W110 P316 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 46 | 93 (1) | 73 (3) | 66 (4) | 74 (5) | 77 (5) | 54 (2) | 43 (6) | 94 (5) | - | - | 29 | 28 | 14 | 10 | 69 | 47 | 2 | 7/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmy Shoe Shine | 38.10 | 38.60 | 38.90 | 86 | +0.80 | Fastest, worst trap | |
| 2 | Aero Candy | 38.70 | 39.20 | 39.90 | 50 | +0.70 | Best trap + form + trainer | |
| 3 | Sugar Rose | 39.20 | 39.60 | 29.80 | 38 | — | Slowest, dropping from 480m | |
| 4 | Aurora Sky | 38.50 | 39.00 | 38.60 | 52 | +0.10 | 2nd LTO at same combo | |
| 5 | Drumdoit Murphy | Last run was over 480m - stepping up sharply in trip today. | — | Best trap, dropping from 480m | ||||
| 6 | Swift Eaglestone | 39.00 | 39.40 | 39.10 | 49 | +0.10 | 3rd LTO at same combo | |
The marathon trip over 630m is the toughest test on today's card and it's also a distance where Monmore's data has historically been unreliable for picking winners outright, so this calls for genuine judgement rather than leaning on the ratings alone. Trap 1 has been a poor box at this trip this year while traps 2 and 5 have both performed strongly, which fits with stamina and a smooth run round mattering more than raw early pace over such a long way. Aero Candy gets the best draw, the best trainer figures and the strongest current form in the field, while Aurora Sky - runner-up last time out at this exact combination - looks the biggest danger if she can settle better than a pure front-running style over this distance.
Rated the best in the field on current form and drops down from the grade above, where she was competitive. Gets one of the two strongest boxes at this trip and has the best trainer figures in the race at 28%. Two wins and three places from eight runs at this course and distance is a proven record over the marathon trip specifically. The best all-round package even in a race where the data at this venue and distance needs treating with some caution.
Runner-up last time out at this exact course, distance and grade, which is about as relevant a form line as you can find. One win and three places from five runs here is a strong record for a small sample. Her pace profile suggests she likes to be prominent early rather than hold back, which can catch her out late over this trip, but the very recent placed run at this combination makes her the clearest threat to the selection.
Sets the fastest recent times of anyone in this field by a wide margin, but two things work against her tonight: she tends to lead early and weaken late, which is a difficult profile over this trip, and trap 1 has been comfortably the worst box at 630m this year. No prior runs at this exact course and distance either. Raw speed alone won't be enough if she can't last the extra distance.
Steps up from the shorter trip and the clock suggests she's the slowest in this field over 630m. One win from seven course and distance runs. Third last time out at the shorter distance. Hard to fancy her to find the extra stamina needed here.
Gets one of the two best boxes at this trip but is stepping up sharply from 480m company, so this is new ground in terms of stamina. No wins yet from five runs at the marathon course and distance, though she has placed twice. An interesting outsider on the draw alone but unproven over the extra distance.
Finished third last time out at this same course, distance and grade, and has one win with one place from seven runs here. Solid without being spectacular on the clock. A fair each-way inclusion given the recent run at this exact combination.
Key insight: This is a small sample at a distance where Monmore's model has historically been unreliable - the top-rated dog wins under 18% of the time, while traps 2 and 5 have both outperformed trap 1 by some margin. Treat any rating-based pick here as a lean rather than a certainty.
T1:8.9% T2:26.9% T3:24.4% T4:18.8% T5:26.2% T6:19.2%
305 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 630m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Jimmy Shoe Shine | 100 | 0 | Fader |
2Aero Candy | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Sugar Rose | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Aurora Sky | 100 | 0 | Fader |
5Drumdoit Murphy | 100 | 0 | Fader |
6Swift Eaglestone | 0 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 630m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (630m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 480m | 630m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmy Shoe Shine | 0.609 | 0.635 |
| 2 | Aero Candy | 0.605 | 0.621 |
| 3 | Sugar Rose | 0.615 | 0.624 |
| 5 | Drumdoit Murphy | 0.613 | 0.621 |
| 6 | Swift Eaglestone | 0.610 | 0.620 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.