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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Kilwest Freddied 3y 8 | J Bateson — 10% R42 W4 P25 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 47 | 93 (1) | 76 (3) | 77 (2) | 75 (2) | 72 (4) | 85 (2) | 77 (2) | 57 (5) | 72 (4) | - | 55 | 70 | 45 | 52 | 76 | 70 | 2 | 9/4 | |
| 2 | ▶ Moneypoint Wiljod 3y 14 | R Lambe — 21% R126 W26 P63 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 26 | 27 (5) | 44 (5) | 47 (6) | 59 (6) | 68 (2) | 80 (4) | 59 (5) | 40 (2) | 85 (2) | 67 (3) | 65 | 72 | 15 | 53 | 63 | 63 | 3 | 9/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Kirbys Boy Jimmyd 2y 15 | S W Deakin — 17% R519 W87 P242 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 37 | 51 | 47 (5) | 87 (1) | 65 (4) | 70 (3) | 55 (5) | 52 (6) | 56 (4) | 71 (3) | 92 (1) | 99 (1) | 37 | 50 | 17 | 42 | 62 | 55 | 5 | 11/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Pennys Edged 2y 37 | R Short — 18% R132 W24 P61 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 50 | 39 (5) | 43 (6) | 55 (5) | 84 (1) | 61 (4) | 37 (4) | 93 (1) | 74 (2) | 77 (3) | 76 (2) | 69 | 26 | 48 | 25 | 71 | 60 | 4 | 5/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Jab And Rund 3y 7 | N P Ralph Jnr — 18% R50 W9 P29 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 64 | 59 | 35 (3) | 60 (5) | 66 (4) | 92 (1) | 72 (3) | 47 (1) | 79 (2) | 92 (1) | 44 (6) | 91 (1) | 63 | 63 | 53 | 56 | 78 | 72 | 1 | 1/1F | |
| 6 | ▶ Mister Baileysd 2yN/R 18 | S W Deakin — 17% R519 W87 P242 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 54 | 75 (2) | 58 (5) | 86 (3) | 66 (3) | 85 (1) | 76 (3) | 78 (3) | 91 (1) | 63 (5) | 76 (3) | 57 | 62 | 43 | 61 | 81 | 74 | - | - | |
Mister Baileys is the field-best performer at P81, running with remarkable consistency at the highest level: P78→P91→P63→P76→P91→P89. Five of the last six runs are P76 or above — that's elite A1 form with almost no bad days. The pure Closer profile (EP0/CS100) is perfectly suited to this race shape: two EP100 Faders (Kilwest Freddie and Jab And Run) will set a blistering pace from the front, progressively weaken through bends 2-4, and Mister Baileys will time his run to close through the home straight. Suitability is excellent across every dimension: track 62, distance 61, trap 57, class 43 — consistently high and confirming deep experience at Dunstall Park at this distance, from this trap, at this grade. Trainer Deakin at 28% is moderate-to-strong. Speed 53 is solid (second only to Jab And Run's exceptional 64), and bend rating 54 is good. T6 at 21.43% from 14 runs is small-sample but positive. The case for Mister Baileys is the convergence of: field-best P (81), best form consistency, perfect pace profile for the race shape (Closer behind two extreme Faders), and excellent suitability. The only genuine risk is Jab And Run's speed being so exceptional (64) that the Fader holds despite CS0.
DANGER: Field-best speed (64), field-best bend (59), excellent suitability across all dimensions. If any Fader can hold from the front against Closers, it's this one. The 11-point speed advantage creates a genuine case for the lead being too large to be closed. The P44 vulnerability and CS0 Fader profile prevent Strong confidence.
Excellent pedigree and suitability but declining form (P57 last) and full Fader profile against a P81 Closer makes winning very difficult. Will set the pace but likely caught in the closing stages.
Once a strong Dunstall Park performer (track suit 72) but currently in steep decline. Bend rating of 26 is a massive liability at A1 level. Can be opposed with confidence.
P86 peak proves elite ability, but P47 last-time-out and chronic inconsistency make this a fringe contender. The Closer profile is right for the race shape but can't be trusted to reproduce his best.
P84 last-time-out is eye-catching but the dead T4 draw (4.76%) and extreme form inconsistency (P16 to P93 range) make this too risky. The dog could run anywhere from 1st to last on any given day.
124 runs — LOW SAMPLE WARNING. Trap percentages are based on small samples (18-28 runs per trap) so less reliable than usual. Composite R1 wins 28.26% — the ratings DO separate at A1 grade. R3 at 0% from 15 runs is likely noise from small samples.
T1:27.78% T2:13.04% T3:10.71% T4:4.76% T5:45% T6:21.43%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Kilwest Freddie | 100 | 0 | Fader |
2Moneypoint Wiljo | 62 | 36 | Fader |
3Kirbys Boy Jimmy | 38 | 64 | Closer |
4Pennys Edge | 0 | 100 | Closer |
5Jab And Run | 100 | 0 | Fader |
6Mister Baileys | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.