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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Millbank Sashab 4y 16 | P A Holder — 12% R142 W17 P67 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 36 | 100 | 28 (3) | 21 (5) | 29 (4) | 29 (3) | 28 (4) | 35 (3) | 19 (6) | 40 (1) | 24 (6) | 40 (1) | 37 | 39 | 28 | 39 | 30 | 33 | 6 | 10/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Moanteen Rubyb 2y 18 | J R Hall — 21% R330 W69 P186 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | 46 | 73 (3) | 86 (1) | 52 (5) | 42 (6) | 78 (2) | 86 (1) | 56 (5) | 47 (5) | 62 (2) | 55 (6) | 72 | 36 | - | 30 | 63 | 57 | 3 | 2/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Undod 1y 36 | J Bateson — 10% R42 W4 P25 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 61 (2) | 63 (2) | 51 (5) | 30 (5) | 34 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | 87 | 78 | 18 | 78 | 34 | 50 | 2 | 15/8F | |
| 4 | ▶ Flowerpot Bingod 4y 15 | S A Aveline — 10% R67 W7 P30 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 23 (5) | 27 (4) | 27 (5) | 29 (4) | 28 (4) | 41 | 24 (1) | 34 (6) | 33 (2) | - | 50 | 48 | 46 | 48 | 34 | 39 | 5 | 10/3 | |
| 5 | ▶ Dapper Chunkyd 2y 14 | I E Walker — 13% R241 W32 P113 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 53 | 49 (4) | 61 (4) | 60 (2) | 69 (2) | 58 (4) | 45 (5) | 67 (2) | 35 (6) | 59 (3) | 52 (6) | 48 | 42 | - | 48 | 51 | 49 | 4 | 9/2 | |
| 6 | ▶ Jimmys Gadgetsd 5y 16 | S W Deakin — 17% R519 W87 P242 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 30 (6) | 26 (3) | 33 (5) | 18 (2) | 35 (6) | 25 (2) | 37 | 36 (5) | - | - | 38 | 40 | 11 | 44 | 31 | 34 | 1 | 10/1 | |
Jimmys Gadgets sits in the DOMINANT T6 at 24.39% from 41 runs — 46% above expected rate and the only reliable positive structural signal in this race. Recent form shows momentum: two consecutive 1st place finishes at D3 270m (P37, P36), earning promotion to D2. P31 average is modest, but the winning trajectory is clear — P37→P36→P28→P24→P22→P28 shows the recent wins are a genuine step up from his earlier form. Speed 50 is mid-field. No pace data available. Suitability is reasonable: track 40, distance 44, trap 38. Trainer Deakin at 28% is moderate-to-strong. In a race where COMPOSITE RANKINGS ARE INVERTED (R1 wins less than R3 and R6), performance ratings are actively misleading. The trap bias is the only reliable signal, and T6 at 24.39% is the clearest structural advantage. The combination of dominant trap + moderate-to-strong trainer + winning momentum from two consecutive D3 victories provides the soundest convergence of evidence in this race.
DANGER: Exceptional suitability (trap 87, track 78, distance 78) combined with Bateson at 36% and back-to-back wins. The aggregate T3 data (13.51%) is below average but this dog's individual history from T3 is so dominant (suit 87) that the structural headwind is significantly negated. A genuine win threat.
Exceptional bend rating (100) but erratic form, no supporting pace data, and below-average structural position. Too unreliable to back despite the intriguing bend metric.
Field's best dog on paper (P63, Spd60) but P19→P18 form collapse plus Closer profile at 270m sprint creates a structural double negative. Can't be backed until the form returns.
Recent winner at these exact conditions, but the dead T4 draw (10.53%) limits the repeat chance. Place possibility but structural headwind prevents confident backing.
Second-best performer with genuine early pace for sprint distance, but T5 at 6.9% is the most extreme dead trap today. The class gap (~10 points above average) comes close to a class override but the structural deficit is too severe. One to oppose reluctantly.
203 runs. COMPOSITE INVERTED — R1 wins LESS (11.32%) than R3 (15%) and even R6 (18.18%). The model's ratings predict backwards at D2 270m. Trap bias and speed are the only reliable signals. T6 is clearly dominant at 24.39%. Speed R1 at 18.33% is the strongest model signal.
T1:13.64% T2:13.89% T3:13.51% T4:10.53% T5:6.9% T6:24.39%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.