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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Somersham Mistyb 4y 27 | D J Prentice — 23% R39 W9 P19 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 55 | 59 (1) | 52 (3) | 69 (1) | 62 (2) | 55 (3) | 63 (2) | 38 (6) | 45 (4) | 56 (3) | 54 (2) | 41 | 41 | 64 | 38 | 57 | 51 | 2 | 6/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Tetra Kennyd 3y 16 | P I Cross — 19% R148 W28 P84 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 44 | 44 (3) | 52 (3) | 52 (3) | 61 (3) | 57 (2) | 53 (4) | 53 (4) | 54 (3) | 61 (2) | 51 (4) | 27 | 37 | 38 | 32 | 57 | 48 | 3 | 2/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Drive On Belleb 4y 23 | I J Barnard — 23% R262 W59 P162 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 46 | 39 (5) | 65 (1) | 51 (2) | 49 (4) | 57 (3) | 48 (5) | 39 (1) | 28 (4) | 30 (5) | 29 (5) | 57 | 31 | 40 | 30 | 44 | 42 | 5 | 6/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Curraleigh Roseb 2y 16 | K L Windebank — 17% R548 W92 P308 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | 53 | 64 (2) | 52 (4) | 50 (5) | 58 (3) | 51 (5) | 56 (5) | 77 (1) | 66 (2) | 74 (1) | 67 (1) | 7 | 43 | - | 28 | 51 | 42 | 6 | 8/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Value Addedd 2y 7 | E G Samuels — 16% R633 W101 P354 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 60 | 58 (5) | 85 (1) | 78 (1) | 53 (4) | 43 (5) | 67 (3) | 75 (1) | 69 (1) | 54 (2) | 60 (2) | 44 | 79 | 31 | 64 | 60 | 61 | 1 | 6/5F | |
| 6 | ▶ Good Annab 2y 26 | C R Morris — 28% R250 W71 P166 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 49 | 37 (4) | 39 (5) | 16 (3) | 46 (4) | 58 (4) | 54 (3) | 42 (5) | 60 (1) | 42 (4) | 55 (6) | 28 | 45 | 10 | 28 | 51 | 45 | 4 | 10/1 | |
Value Added tops the prediction model emphatically with an h3 of 92.85 — the highest in this race by a wide margin. The model's confidence comes from the convergence of class drop and suitability: she drops four grades from A3 where she was competitive (P61 2nd last time, P64 2nd, P64 win at A7), giving a clear avgPerf of 60 that leads the field. Her suitability scores are exceptional: track 79 and distance 64 are the best in the race by a huge margin, reflecting extensive positive form at Yarmouth 462m. As a Fader (EP 63, CS 35) she'll lead early, and the concern at Yarmouth is always whether the long home straight will punish the fade. Her CS of 35 is poor. However, the class override principle applies here — she's P60 avgPerf in a field averaging P52, an 8-point gap that suggests she'll build enough lead through the first half to survive the fade. Consistent form (P61→P64→P64→P61→P52→P56) with no catastrophic lows adds reliability. T5 at 17.26% from 307 runs is below expected — a structural headwind — and trap suit 44 is solid but not elite. Trainer Samuels at 14% is poor. The pick holds on the weight of class advantage and exceptional suitability, but the Fader profile at Yarmouth makes Medium the right confidence tier.
DANGER: Second-best perf in the field with better closing speed than the pick. Inside rail, strong class suit, and solid trap stats. If any Fader can hold on at Yarmouth, it's the one with CS 44 from T1.
Best raw speed (58) and strongest Closer (CS 71) in the field. Will be finishing fast but needs pace to collapse ahead. The quality threat from behind if things fall apart up front.
Best trap draw in the race (T3 dominant at 25.37%) with strong individual trap suit. But avgPerf 44 is well below the leaders. Structural advantage gives her a placing chance despite modest ability.
Drops from A3 but inconsistent form and worst speed in the field. Trap suit of 7 despite T4 being structurally positive. The volatility makes her unpredictable — place possible but unreliable.
Dead trap, extreme Closer who needs everything ahead to fail. Has the closing ability but the combination of T6 structural headwind and need for pace collapse makes winning improbable.
LOW SEPARATION: R1 at 21.73% vs R3 at 20.69% — just 1.04pp gap, composite rankings offer almost no predictive value. T3 is clearly DOMINANT at 25.37% from 201 runs. T5 where the pick is drawn sits below expected at 17.26% from 307 runs — a structural headwind. T6 is a dead trap at 15.81% from 291 runs.
T1:20.27% T2:18.88% T3:25.37% T4:21.39% T5:17.26% T6:15.81%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Somersham Misty | 58 | 44 | Fader |
2Tetra Kenny | 47 | 71 | Closer |
3Drive On Belle | 49 | 56 | Closer |
4Curraleigh Rose | 51 | 29 | All-Rounder |
5Value Added | 63 | 35 | Fader |
6Good Anna | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.