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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Murrow Toasterd 5y 25 | R Fitch — 25% R60 W15 P40 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 44 | 53 (2) | 49 (4) | 60 (2) | 56 (4) | 50 (4) | 67 (2) | 57 (2) | 60 (3) | 75 (1) | 36 (5) | 33 | 25 | 26 | 29 | 56 | 47 | 4 | 20/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Headford Ariab 2y 5 | I J Barnard — 23% R262 W59 P162 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 44 | 76 (5) | 87 (2) | 64 (1) | 84 (3) | 73 (1) | 69 (3) | 79 (4) | 67 (2) | 66 (3) | - | 22 | 56 | - | 47 | 49 | 46 | 1 | 5/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Kilara Rodrigod 2y 15 | I J Barnard — 23% R262 W59 P162 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 49 | 65 (4) | 61 (4) | 81 (1) | 83 (1) | 60 (3) | 67 (3) | 76 (4) | 50 (1) | 53 (4) | - | 6 | 37 | 23 | 32 | 53 | 43 | 5 | 5/4F | |
| 5 | ▶ Easy Nancyb 2y 28 | E G Samuels — 16% R633 W101 P354 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 56 | 39 (5) | 35 (5) | 34 (6) | 40 (5) | 70 (2) | 51 (4) | 57 (2) | 49 (4) | 74 (1) | 63 (3) | 21 | 34 | 22 | 30 | 60 | 49 | 2 | 7/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Unlikely Reggied 2y 17 | V K Thom — 20% R138 W28 P89 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 58 | 36 (3) | 50 (3) | 52 (4) | 62 (5) | 65 (2) | 51 (3) | 48 (4) | 66 (3) | 56 (2) | - | 33 | 26 | 5 | 26 | 58 | 48 | 3 | 2/1 | |
Headford Aria is the Pred1 pick based on dropping from A3 where she ran three competitive races — P66 (3rd), P58 (4th), P64 (4th) — showing she was in the mix at a higher grade without winning. Now she drops to A4 where the class edge should tell. Her h3 of 69.56 leads the field. Suitability is the standout factor: track 56 is the best in the race by a considerable margin, and distance 47 is also field-leading, confirming she's a genuine Yarmouth 462m specialist. As an All-Rounder (EP 50, CS 52, consistency 89) she has the most balanced pace profile — she'll track the leader through the first two bends and sustain through the home straight. Speed 53 is the field's best. T2 at 16.5% from 200 runs is near expected — no structural help, but the suitability advantage compensates. Trainer Barnard at 22% is below awareness. The concern is that her avgPerf of 49 is only 3rd-best in the field — the class drop from A3 hasn't translated into a massive class gap at A4. But the combination of best speed, best suitability, and balanced pace profile gives her the most complete package.
DANGER: Best avgPerf in the field (60) with strong recent form (P70 2nd at A4). All-Rounder suits Yarmouth. Could easily win — the pick's suitability advantage over her is the tiebreaker.
Strong trainer (Fitch 31%) and recent A5 win but faces a class test at A4. Mid-pack speed and modest suitability make winning a stretch — place contender if things fall right.
Best trap draw but worst trap suitability (6) — the structural advantage and individual data are completely misaligned. Volatile consistency and modest speed limit his ceiling. Hard to support.
Best early pace but dead T6 trap and Fader profile at Yarmouth's Closer-friendly track. Will lead through two bends but likely to be caught. Trainer Thom 28% adds a sliver of hope but the structural case against is strong.
T4 is the best available trap at 21.97% from 264 runs but Kilara Rodrigo drawn there has avgPerf 53 and inconsistent form. T6 is clearly dead at 13.92% from 273 runs which hurts Unlikely Reggie's structural case despite his EP advantage. T2 for the pick is near expected at 16.5%.
T1:19.25% T2:16.5% T3:21.52%(vacant) T4:21.97% T5:16.6% T6:13.92%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Murrow Toaster | 43 | 50 | All-Rounder |
2Headford Aria | 50 | 52 | All-Rounder |
4Kilara Rodrigo | 48 | 56 | Closer |
5Easy Nancy | 50 | 43 | All-Rounder |
6Unlikely Reggie | 60 | 30 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.