| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Somersham Wolfd 2y 6 | D J Prentice — 20% R41 W8 P19 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 48 | 60 (5) | 79 (3) | 69 (4) | 71 (4) | 49 (4) | 58 (5) | 93 (1) | 73 (4) | 64 (3) | 80 (2) | 27 | 39 | 27 | 39 | 72 | 59 | 5 | 9/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Prestige Journeyd 2y 34 | K L Windebank — 16% R553 W90 P305 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 41 | 42 (6) | 58 (4) | 54 (5) | 79 (2) | 67 (3) | 68 (3) | 93 (1) | 76 (3) | 90 (1) | 73 (2) | 58 | 37 | 12 | 37 | 78 | 66 | 4 | 10/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Good Extrad 3y 8 | E G Samuels — 16% R639 W102 P358 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 56 | 94 (1) | 66 (3) | 81 (2) | 69 (4) | 75 (2) | 61 (4) | 93 (1) | 60 (5) | 62 (5) | 73 (4) | 48 | 39 | 33 | 37 | 68 | 59 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Kilara Reaperd 2y 4 | I J Barnard — 23% R257 W60 P160 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 50 | 75 (2) | 94 (1) | 72 (3) | 70 (3) | 89 (1) | 65 (3) | 61 (3) | 79 (5) | 73 (2) | - | 35 | 42 | 34 | 42 | 75 | 63 | 2 | 13/8F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Murrow Krakatoab 4y 38 | R Fitch — 27% R56 W15 P38 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 74 | 91 (5) | 64 (1) | 93 (3) | 65 (1) | 88 (3) | 59 (1) | 65 (5) | 77 (5) | 19 (3) | - | 50 | 53 | 37 | 53 | 72 | 65 | 1 | 7/4 | - | |
Murrow Krakatoa is the Pred1 pick with a massive h3 of 95.15 — the highest on the entire card. He won his last race at A1 with a superb P94, and before that won at A2 with P88. The model's confidence comes from the convergence of suitability and speed: track 53, distance 53, trap 50 are the best in the field across all three dimensions, and bend 74 is the best on the entire card — not just this race. He'll lead through the first bend by daylight. The obvious concern: CS of just 9 and pace consistency of 70 — this is an EXTREME Fader. He doesn't just fade, he can collapse completely. His form reflects this: P94→P65→P88→P59→P65→P77 — brilliant when things go right (P94, P88, P77) but capable of running 30+ points below his peak (P59, P65). At Yarmouth where 80% of leaders get caught, a CS of 9 should be terminal. But his P94 last time was at A1 — he held on despite the fading profile, suggesting the class advantage at this level creates enough early daylight. Trainer R Fitch at 31% is strong tier — the best in this field. The pick is justified by the elite h3, suitability convergence, and the recent P94 proof that he can win from the front at A1 Yarmouth. But the CS 9 means confidence must be Medium — Prestige Journey (CS 67, avgPerf 78) will be closing hard.
DANGER: Best avgPerf in the field (78), elite consistency (95), strong Closer profile (CS 67) at Yarmouth, and structurally positive T2 draw. The premier threat to the pick — if Murrow Krakatoa fades (CS 9 says he will), she's the one who benefits most.
Consistent All-Rounder but declining form and weakest speed in the field limit his ceiling at A1. Will be competitive for places but unlikely to beat the top three.
Dominant trap draw but declining recent form and a significant class gap to the top runners. Structural position gives a place chance but winning requires significant improvement from recent efforts.
Second-best avgPerf (75) with consistent A1 form and balanced pace profile. But keeps finishing 2nd — may find 2nd or 3rd again without the class edge to win outright.
Strong composite separation (R1 25.09% vs R3 12.92% — 12pp gap). The model's top pick should win significantly more often than the third-ranked dog at A1. T3 is the best trap at 22.11% from 303 runs (Good Extra drawn there). T5 where the pick is drawn is below expected at 17.11% from 228 runs. Quality field with three dogs averaging 72+ performance.
T1:16.89% T2:20.8% T3:22.11% T4:18.15% T5:17.11% T6:19.59%(vacant)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Somersham Wolf | 48 | 50 | All-Rounder |
2Prestige Journey | 39 | 67 | Closer |
3Good Extra | 54 | 45 | All-Rounder |
4Kilara Reaper | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
5Murrow Krakatoa | 62 | 9 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 462m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (462m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 450m | 462m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Somersham Wolf | — | 0.612 |
| 2 | Prestige Journey | 0.626 | 0.613 |
| 3 | Good Extra | — | 0.611 |
| 4 | Kilara Reaper | — | 0.610 |
| 5 | Murrow Krakatoa | — | 0.618 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.