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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Harlequin Manilab 3y 6 | K L Windebank — 17% R548 W92 P308 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 36 | 45 (4) | 41 (4) | 53 (3) | 45 (4) | 46 (4) | 51 (3) | 47 (3) | 17 (3) | 35 (6) | 53 (3) | 39 | 30 | 38 | 30 | 48 | 43 | 4 | 9/4JF | |
| 3 | ▶ Trigga Jamied 4y 35 | V K Thom — 20% R138 W28 P89 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 31 | 64 | 16 (5) | 21 (6) | 34 (4) | 22 (6) | 24 (5) | 29 (6) | 31 (6) | 40 (6) | 42 (4) | - | 45 | 33 | 12 | 33 | 36 | 36 | 5 | 8/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Murrow Tamborab 3y 16 | R Fitch — 25% R60 W15 P40 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 49 | 43 (4) | 39 (4) | 64 (1) | 47 (3) | 57 (1) | 48 (2) | 47 (3) | 42 (3) | 43 (5) | 49 (2) | 37 | 38 | 25 | 32 | 48 | 44 | 2 | 7/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Take Off Busterd 3y 6 | L Brown — 15% R125 W19 P63 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 56 | 36 (6) | 53 (3) | 47 (3) | 63 (2) | 46 (1) | 50 (4) | 76 (2) | 63 (3) | 56 (2) | - | 34 | 45 | 34 | 30 | 55 | 48 | 1 | 5/2 | |
| 6 | ▶ Lady Wrightb 1y 6 | C R Morris — 28% R250 W71 P166 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 46 | 52 (4) | 71 (1) | 52 (2) | 50 (4) | 55 (3) | 22 (1) | 48 (2) | 33 (5) | 49 (4) | 38 (5) | 19 | 50 | 23 | 36 | 49 | 44 | 3 | 9/4JF | |
Take Off Buster is the Pred1 pick with h3 73.21, the highest in this field. He drops from S2 where he ran P76 (3rd) — an impressive staying race effort. His A7 462m form is decent: P43 (4th), P56 (2nd), P63 (1st), P57 (1st A8) — two wins and a strong 2nd at this level. AvgPerf 55 is the best in the field. He's an extreme Closer (EP 0, CS 100, consistency 0) — identical profile to several dogs we've seen on the card — which means he shows zero early pace and relies entirely on closing from dead last. At Yarmouth, this is the right venue for extreme Closers — the 20% all-the-way rate means 80% of leaders get caught. Track suit 45 is the best in the field and distance suit 30 is decent. T5 at 17.76% from 214 runs is below expected — a mild structural headwind. Trap suit 34 is modest. Trainer Brown at 22% is below awareness. The pick is justified by the best avgPerf in the field, dropping from a staying grade (stamina guaranteed), and the ideal Closer profile at Yarmouth. But the extreme EP 0 from a below-expected T5 means he'll give a lot of ground early, and the confidence must reflect the uncertainty of whether the pace collapses enough for him to close.
DANGER: Best trainer (Fitch 31%), joint-best speed (55), structurally positive T4, and Closer profile at Yarmouth. Will close when Trigga Jamie fades — the natural beneficiary of the pace dynamics.
Most consistent runner (91) with reliable A7/A8 form. But weak bend rating limits early positioning and mid-pack speed limits late closing. Place contender, unlikely to win.
Dominant trap but worst performance and speed in the field. Will lead early then fade badly. The class gap is too large for the structural advantage to compensate. Despite T3's 27.42%, his form says he'll finish mid-field.
Strong track suitability and joint-best speed but recent form of P49 and P39 is underwhelming. All-Rounder flexibility helps but she's more likely 3rd-4th than winning. Trainer Morris at 28% adds minor interest.
LOW SEPARATION: R1 23.31% vs R3 19.59% — just 3.72pp gap. T3 is clearly dominant at 27.42% but Trigga Jamie drawn there has avgPerf 36 (field worst) and declining form. T5 for the pick is at 17.76% — below expected. T4 and T6 are both structurally positive above 21%.
T1:18.55% T2:21.66%(vacant) T3:27.42% T4:22.15% T5:17.76% T6:21.46%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Harlequin Manila | 45 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Trigga Jamie | 60 | 14 | Fader |
4Murrow Tambora | 50 | 56 | Closer |
5Take Off Buster | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Lady Wright | 52 | 49 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.