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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Nightmare Mollb 4y 35 | L Brown — 15% R125 W19 P63 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 65 | 37 (5) | 34 (5) | 76 (2) | 62 (2) | 60 (2) | 64 (2) | 68 (1) | 42 (6) | 50 (2) | 59 (2) | 37 | 36 | 30 | 32 | 58 | 50 | 2 | 20/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Bedazzled Bulletd 2y 16 | K L Windebank — 17% R548 W92 P308 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | 45 | 61 (3) | 67 (1) | 50 (3) | 60 (3) | 59 (2) | 58 (2) | 46 (2) | 48 (4) | 48 (4) | - | 23 | 32 | 9 | 32 | 54 | 45 | 6 | 10/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Paradise Libertyb 2y 25 | V K Thom — 20% R138 W28 P89 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 48 | 64 (2) | 30 (2) | 24 (4) | 63 (3) | 45 (5) | 65 (3) | 48 (4) | 70 (1) | 56 (2) | 37 (6) | 45 | 30 | 9 | 30 | 56 | 49 | 3 | 9/4 | |
| 4 | ▶ Lady Danielleb 2y 8 | V K Thom — 20% R138 W28 P89 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 47 | 52 (5) | 78 (1) | 62 (4) | 68 (2) | 74 (1) | 55 (4) | 82 (1) | 60 (2) | 60 (2) | 65 (2) | 54 | 72 | 14 | 57 | 60 | 60 | 1 | 5/4F | |
| 5 | ▶ Miss Winehouseb 3y 25 | I J Barnard — 23% R262 W59 P162 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 52 | 47 (4) | 45 (5) | 67 (2) | 52 (4) | 71 (1) | 55 (3) | 49 (4) | 40 (5) | 64 (1) | 59 (1) | 29 | 22 | 9 | 26 | 54 | 44 | 5 | 14/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Solana Jetd 2y 5 | E G Samuels — 16% R633 W101 P354 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 47 | 62 (3) | 54 (4) | 46 (4) | 54 (5) | 75 (5) | 69 (1) | 65 (2) | 48 (2) | 69 (5) | - | 25 | 28 | 65 | 28 | 58 | 47 | 4 | 5/2 | |
Lady Danielle is the clear pick here and the data convergence is impressive. She won at A3 last time out with a massive P82 — that's the best recent performance in this field by a wide margin, and now she drops three grades to A5. Her avgPerf of 60 leads the field, but it's the combination of factors that makes her compelling. She's drawn in T4, the DOMINANT trap at Yarmouth A5 462m which wins 25.22% from 230 runs — the best trap in the race. Her suitability scores are elite: track 72, distance 57, trap 54, meaning she has proven form at this venue, this distance, and from this box. As a Closer (EP 47, CS 60) she's the perfect profile for Yarmouth's long home straight where 80% of races see the leader caught. Trainer V K Thom at 28% is at the moderate tier. The only minor concern is the form trajectory shows some volatility (P82→P60→P61→P65→P34→P63) — that P34 four runs back came at A6 — but the latest P82 at a higher grade confirms she's in top form. The class drop from A3 to A5, the dominant trap, the elite suitability, and the ideal Closer profile at the UK's fairest track all converge here.
DANGER: Strongest Closer in the field (CS 70) at the UK's most Closer-friendly track. Class suit 65 and speed 52 confirm the quality. Would need Lady Danielle to underperform to win, but she's the most credible each-way threat.
Consistent mare who leads early but vulnerable to Closers on Yarmouth's long home straight. Will likely set the pace but fade to 2nd-4th.
Declining form, weakest trap draw, lowest speed in field. The data doesn't support a placing here — one to oppose.
Inconsistent but has A5 ability on her day. T3 trap suit of 45 is a positive but form volatility makes her hard to trust as anything more than a possible minor place.
Three-race winning streak but stepping up in grade with low Yarmouth suitability. The improving trajectory is real but untested at this level — watching brief.
T4 is the dominant trap here at 25.22% from 230 runs — well above the 16.7% expected rate. Composite R1 wins 23.92% from 581 runs, showing reasonable model separation. This is Yarmouth — the fairest track in the UK with the lowest all-the-way winner rate (20%), so Closers and late runners are favoured structurally.
T1:22.45% T2:16.58% T3:19.51% T4:25.22% T5:20.69% T6:18.39%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Nightmare Moll | 66 | 22 | Fader |
2Bedazzled Bullet | 53 | 49 | All-Rounder |
3Paradise Liberty | 51 | 49 | All-Rounder |
4Lady Danielle | 47 | 60 | Closer |
5Miss Winehouse | 49 | 51 | All-Rounder |
6Solana Jet | 43 | 70 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.