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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Grouchos Eubankd 1y 14 | R J Overton — 18% R320 W56 P190 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 15 (5) | 21 (3) | 25 (2) | 25 (2) | 29 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | 50 | 37 | 30 | 37 | 26 | 31 | 3 | 6/4F | |
| 2 | ▶ Glens Lucky Dipd 4y 16 | D Calvert — 17% R545 W93 P315 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 17 (6) | 31 (1) | 19 (5) | 21 (4) | 18 (5) | 27 (2) | 22 (4) | 26 (2) | 21 (4) | 31 (1) | 51 | 28 | 13 | 30 | 25 | 29 | 5 | 7/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Tommys Lightb 2y 17 | S Watson — 31% R414 W128 P292 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 36 (1) | 21 (5) | 30 (2) | 25 (4) | 36 (1) | 26 (2) | 31 (1) | 30 (1) | 26 (3) | 22 (3) | 57 | 37 | 17 | 37 | 24 | 31 | 1 | 9/4 | |
| 4 | ▶ Flosses Fendib 2y 7 | D Calvert — 17% R545 W93 P315 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 26 (2) | 27 (3) | 29 (2) | 27 (2) | 23 (2) | 23 (5) | 23 (2) | 20 (2) | 22 (3) | 22 (3) | 38 | 48 | - | 48 | 23 | 31 | 2 | 15/8 | |
| 5 | ▶ Ballymac Nephetd 6y 25 | S A Birks — 16% R217 W35 P124 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 21 (5) | 20 (5) | 31 (1) | 22 (3) | 18 (2) | 27 (2) | 20 (4) | 23 (3) | 25 (2) | 25 (2) | 38 | 36 | 34 | 37 | 25 | 29 | 4 | 7/1 | |
Tommys Light is the Pred1 projected winner drawn in the DOMINANT T3 which wins 27.93% from 111 runs at D4 275m — the strongest active trap in this race. His trap suitability of 57 individually confirms the structural advantage, creating the alignment between aggregate and individual data that the condition analysis flags as a strong signal. He's trained by S Watson at 30% — the best trainer on the Doncaster card, and Watson's condition-specific record at D4 275m is an outstanding 40% from 10 runs. His form reads 25,22,18,21,24 with positions of 3,3,4,4,2 — modest but all at D4 level. The 18 dip aside, he's been consistently competitive with a recent 2nd suggesting he's in form. Speed of 52 is the best in the field, and at a sprint distance where speed rank 1 wins 29.01% from 355 runs, this matters. The case for Tommys Light is structural: dominant trap + best speed + best trainer + condition-specific trainer record.
Dominant T4 draw and excellent venue suitability (track 48, dist 48) make her a danger. The class drop from D3 back to D4 should help. But recent form dip (21, 11) and zero class suitability are concerns. Danger from the structure.
Best performance rating in the field but drawn in the dead T1 (16.55% from 139 runs). The 3-point class edge isn't enough to overcome the structural deficit. Consistent placer rather than likely winner from this draw.
Two recent wins from D4/D5 show ability but declining form since and a dead T2 draw (16.67% from 126 runs) make repeating difficult. Better positioned for a place than a win from this structural position.
Consistent placer (three 2nds from five) but no wins and no structural edge from a neutral T5 draw. Average across all metrics. Will be thereabouts but hard to see her converting consistency into a win.
T3 and T4 are the active dominant traps with T6 vacant. The inside traps (T1, T2) are dead at D4 275m — a different trap profile to D2 at the same distance. Watson 40% at D4 275m from 10 runs is a strong trainer-condition signal.
T1:16.55% T2:16.67% T3:27.93% T4:24.44% T5:19.88% T6:37.04%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 275m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.