Ballymac Nellie is the Pred1 projected winner despite having the lowest avgPerformance in the field at 33 — a selection that relies heavily on her pace profile and speed metrics. She's a Fader (EP 60, CS 0, pCon 51) with the best speed (57) and best bend rating (58) in the field. At 450m, her EP 60 and bend 58 mean she'll lead through the first bend and hold position through the early bends — but CS 0 means she'll weaken progressively through the later bends. Her form reads 42,49,12,21,26 — the 42 and 49 are strong (3rd and 2nd at B7 450m) but the subsequent 12, 21, 26 show a sharp decline. The 12 was at a trial and the 21 at a trial too, so those may be discounted to some extent. Suitability is modest (track 31, distance 20, trap 38, class 15). T4 wins 22.78% from 79 runs — structurally decent. Trained by C A Williams at 28% — moderate tier. The Pred1 model has weighted speed and bend heavily, but the 7-8 point avgPerf deficit against the three main rivals is significant at any distance.