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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 2 | ▶ Emers Jazzyb 3y 35 | M Haythorne — 19% R90 W17 P45 Trainer form — last 3 months | 48 | 33 | 16 (2) | 38 (4) | 28 (2) | 26 (3) | 25 (4) | 24 (3) | 29 (3) | 41 (4) | 50 (2) | 37 (3) | 5 | 25 | 27 | 23 | 30 | 26 | 5 | 8/1 | ||
| 3 | ▶ Ellies Flashd 5y 27 | M Haythorne — 19% R90 W17 P45 Trainer form — last 3 months | 52 | 59 | 30 (5) | 28 (4) | 41 (2) | 58 (1) | 19 (5) | 63 (1) | 19 (5) | 54 (1) | 30 (5) | 30 (5) | 46 | 30 | 37 | 29 | 35 | 35 | 1 | 7/1 | ||
| 4 | ▶ Monbeg Ginod 4y 35 | C A Williams — 15% R367 W54 P187 Trainer form — last 3 months | 50 | 54 | 45 (2) | 48 (2) | 41 (2) | 49 (2) | 44 (3) | 44 (3) | 14 (6) | 43 (2) | 31 (1) | 42 (3) | 35 | 32 | 28 | 26 | 36 | 34 | 3 | 9/2 | ||
| 5 | ▶ Vixons Mercedesb 1y 13 | S J L Lapidge — 18% R321 W58 P191 Trainer form — last 3 months | 52 | 26 | 71 (2) | 60 (4) | 59 (4) | 81 (1) | 50 (5) | 48 (6) | 72 (3) | 43 (6) | 41 (2) | 21 (4) | 31 | 14 | 18 | 14 | 31 | 27 | 4 | 5/6F | ||
| 6 | ▶ Rossa Kalib 4y 38 | C A Williams — 15% R367 W54 P187 Trainer form — last 3 months | 51 | 50 | 49 (3) | 41 (3) | 48 (3) | 32 (5) | 26 (3) | 24 (5) | 45 (2) | 42 (3) | 27 (4) | - | 46 | 43 | - | 41 | 32 | 36 | 2 | 13/8 | ||
Ellies Flash is the Pred1 projected winner with a Fader profile (EP 58, CS 0, pCon 79) and the best bend rating in the field at 59. His form is a tale of two distances: at 450m he's produced 63 (1st at B7) and 54 (1st at B5) — both wins at B-grade level, while his 275m runs at D4 produced 19 and 19 (5th places). He is emphatically a 450m dog, not a sprinter. AvgPerformance of 35 is second-best in the field. The Fader concern is real at 450m — CS 0 means he consistently weakens late — but his EP of 58 and bend 59 mean he's well positioned through the early bends, and if the pace is slow behind him, the fade may not be costly enough to catch him. T3 wins 20.83% from 72 runs — close to expected, no structural advantage or disadvantage. Trap suitability of 46 is the joint-best in the field. Trained by M Haythorne at 14% — weak. The case is form-based: when he runs at 450m, he wins. The two B7/B5 wins (63, 54) are comfortably the best individual performances by any runner in this race.
Best avgPerf in the field with the most adaptable pace profile (All-Rounder). Consistent B6 form and solid structural position. Recent form dip is the concern but the best of the rest behind Ellies Flash. Genuine danger.
Closer profile suits 450m at Doncaster but trap suit 5, weakest bend rating (33), and no recent 450m form make her hard to support. The distance step-up is too much of an unknown with no supporting evidence.
Dominant T5 draw is the one positive but suitability (14, 14) and extreme Closer profile (EP 0, pCon 0) undermine it. Recent form of 12 and 13 show she's been struggling. The structure says maybe but the form says no.
Tactically flexible All-Rounder with decent suitability but zero class suitability and two recent 5th-place finishes at B6 450m say this grade is too sharp. Williams training is a plus but the form doesn't support contention.
Composite rank 1 wins 32.17% from 230 runs — the model has good predictive power at B6 450m. The top-rated dog should be strongly favoured. No dead traps among active positions — fair distribution.
T1:32.5% T2:24.05% T3:20.83% T4:25% T5:27.36% T6:23.53%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
2Emers Jazzy | 31 | 100 | Closer |
3Ellies Flash | 58 | 0 | Fader |
4Monbeg Gino | 52 | 0 | All-Rounder |
5Vixons Mercedes | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Rossa Kali | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.