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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Innocent Mollyb 3y 8 | S J L Lapidge — 18% R320 W56 P187 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | - | 24 (4) | 26 (4) | 34 (2) | 37 (1) | 31 (2) | 28 (3) | 36 (1) | 18 (3) | 28 (2) | 26 (2) | 44 | 29 | 34 | 29 | 25 | 28 | 1 | 5/6F | |
| 2 | ▶ Grouchos Gailb 2y 15 | D Calvert — 17% R545 W93 P315 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 29 (2) | 21 (4) | 24 (3) | 21 (5) | 30 (1) | 26 (2) | 22 (3) | 25 (2) | 18 (5) | 27 (2) | 27 | 25 | 24 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 5 | 6/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Devon Luckyd 2y 37 | C A Williams — 15% R362 W53 P183 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 56 (1) | 45 (3) | 47 (2) | 36 (1) | 24 (3) | 26 (4) | 24 (1) | 23 (3) | 31 (1) | 27 (2) | 37 | 38 | 40 | 38 | 22 | 27 | 4 | 7/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Nellys Fairyb 3y 5 | D Calvert — 17% R545 W93 P315 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 25 (3) | 29 (2) | 20 (5) | 24 (3) | 21 (4) | 26 (2) | 26 (2) | 26 (2) | 18 (5) | 24 (3) | 48 | 44 | 30 | 41 | 24 | 31 | 2 | 6/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Jazza Belleb 4y 13 | D Calvert — 17% R545 W93 P315 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 24 (4) | 31 (3) | 24 (3) | 27 (2) | 28 (3) | 15 (5) | 25 (3) | 20 (4) | 21 (4) | 24 (4) | 34 | 30 | 34 | 34 | 25 | 28 | 3 | 9/4 | |
Innocent Molly is the Pred1 projected winner with the best speed in the field at 54. Her form is remarkably consistent: 26,25,25,25,22 with positions of 2,2,3,2,3 — she rarely wins but rarely finishes worse than 3rd. All five runs are at Doncaster 275m D4, making her the most experienced runner at these exact conditions. AvgPerformance of 25 is the joint-highest in the field. Suitability is modest (track 29, distance 29, trap 44, class 34) — the trap suit of 44 suggests she handles the rail individually despite the aggregate data saying T1 is dead. Trained by S J L Lapidge at 14% — the weakest trainer signal. The concern is clear: T1 is DEAD at 16.55% from 139 runs and she hasn't won any of her last five starts despite consistent mid-pack finishes. The speed advantage of 54 (next best is 50) might be enough to overcome the structural headwind, but it's a narrow edge in a field this close.
The structural favourite — dominant T3, best trainer, best class suitability in a race with no class separation. AvgPerf 22 is the lowest but the 3-point gap is noise at D4 level. AI Pick candidate based on structural convergence.
Dominant T4 draw and best suitability create structural interest but the declining form (29→22→24→24→18) and last-start 5th pull her back. Danger from the structure but form is going the wrong way.
Dead T2 draw and the weakest suitability profile undermine her case despite a recent win. Capable of placing from any draw but winning from T2 at D4 275m is statistically unlikely.
The strongest structural draw (T6 at 37.04%) but zero wins from five starts and consistent 4th-place finishes suggest she can't capitalise. The structure says win but the form says 4th. An uncomfortable tension that keeps her out of danger status.
The pick Innocent Molly is in the DEAD T1 (16.55% from 139 runs). T3 and T4 runners (Devon Lucky, Nellys Fairy) have the structural advantage. T6 Jazza Belle benefits from the single strongest trap signal (37.04%) but with modest form.
T1:16.55% T2:16.67% T3:27.93% T4:24.44% T5:19.88% T6:37.04%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 275m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.