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Lixnaw/Causeway/Ballyduff Stakes Final
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Shronedraugh Jimd 2y 14 | - | - | 35 | - | 91 (1) | 61 (4) | 75 (2) | 75 (3) | 62 (5) | 78 (2) | 84 (1) | 63 (3) | 67 (2) | 62 (4) | 53 | 42 | 23 | 42 | 74 | 47 | 4 | 4/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Ballintemple Betb 1y 2 | - | - | 54 | - | 71 (2) | 66 (3) | 37 (6) | 47 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 57 | 46 | 5 | 8/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Leaha Jessieb 2y 13 | - | - | 41 | - | 70 (3) | 51 (6) | 57 (5) | 42 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 57 | 37 | 6 | 8/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Ballymac Edithb 1y 24 | Liam Dowling — 30% R37 W11 P27 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 94 (1) | 62 (4) | 71 (2) | 67 (2) | 72 (2) | 84 (1) | 70 (1) | 44 (4) | - | - | 30 | 71 | 44 | 27 | 73 | 51 | 1 | 1/4f | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Bobo Brazilb 1y 22 | - | - | 51 | - | 66 (2) | 62 (4) | 71 (3) | 65 (4) | 61 (5) | 67 (2) | 62 (3) | 43 (6) | 49 (2) | - | 12 | 14 | 12 | 22 | 63 | 44 | 3 | 8/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Fat Freddied 2y 14 | - | - | 51 | - | 76 (3) | 70 (4) | 81 (1) | 43 (6) | 62 (2) | 43 (4) | - | - | - | - | 11 | 28 | - | 25 | 65 | 48 | 2 | 8/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bobo Brazil | 29.13 | 29.29 | — | 51 | — | 0 wins from 6 | |
| 2 | Ballintemple Bet | 29.16 | 29.17 | — | 54 | — | Best speed rating | |
| 6 | Fat Freddie | 29.19 | 29.28 | 29.19 | 51 | 0.00 | 81 three back | |
| 1 | Shronedraugh Jim | 29.22 | 29.54 | 28.72 | 35 | -0.50 | Won semi, cold box | |
| 4 | Ballymac Edith | 29.22 | 29.22 | 28.32 | 51 | -0.90 | Won semi 94 | |
| 3 | Leaha Jessie | 29.36 | 29.54 | — | 41 | — | 4 career runs |
Tralee's 525 at A3 grade is the track's biggest sample — 1,121 runs — and it says the draw barely matters: trap 3 leads at just 16.9% and trap 1 trails at 11.1%, the flattest spread on the card. What does matter is pace: the fastest dog in the field wins 22.3% at this grade against 16.8% for the top-rated dog. This Lixnaw/Causeway/Ballyduff Final matches two semi winners — Ballymac Edith, whose 94 was the top rating of the round and who clocked the fastest recent time in this field, and Shronedraugh Jim, a 91-rated winner who owns the deepest course record here. Edith's blend of the best clock, the best last-out rating and Kerry's hottest kennel gives her the edge; Jim, from the statistically coldest box and the slowest measured speed in the race, has to do it on craft alone.
The top rating of the semi-final round — a 94 winning hers — and the fastest recent trip time in this field at 28.32. Her form is on a sharp upswing since joining graded company from schooling stakes, her track suitability figures are the best in the race, and trainer Liam Dowling operates at a 30% strike rate. One from one at this course and distance. The draw spread at this grade is nearly flat, so trap 4 costs her nothing. Best last-out rating, best recent clock, hottest trainer: at a pace-first grade that treble is exactly what wins finals.
Won his semi-final with a 91 and brings the deepest course book in the race — ten runs over this course and distance for two wins and five places, plus a field-best 74 average built at A3-A4 level. The concerns are structural: trap 1 is the coldest box at this grade, his measured speed figure is the lowest in the field, and at a grade where the clock wins races he relies on track craft and race-hardness. That craft is real, which is why he's the danger — but the pick simply travels faster.
The best measured speed figure in the field — a meaningful edge at a grade where the fastest dog wins 22.3% — and runner-up in her semi with a 71, a personal best. Just four career runs, though, with only one at this course and distance, and her two early efforts were rated in the 30s and 40s. A fast-improving youngster with the right weapon for the grade; whether she has the seasoning for a final is the gamble.
Third in her semi with a 70, another step forward across just four career starts, and she lands trap 3 — nominally the best box at this grade, though the edge is slim. No wins or places from three course and distance runs so far, and her figures sit a clear rung below the semi winners. The profile is 'improving pup finding her level', and this final looks half a season early for her.
Second in his semi with a 66 and admirably consistent — six straight runs between 61 and 71, all at A3-A4 level or better company. But six course and distance starts have yielded three places and no wins, and nothing in his figures suggests a career best is imminent. The sort who fills the frame without frightening the front pair.
Third in his semi with a 76 and ran an 81 three starts back, having climbed steadily from A7 grade over the past year — a genuine improver with one win from five course and distance starts. His times and figures put him in the middle of this field on every measure, which at a flat-draw, pace-first grade reads as solid each-way material rather than a winner.
Key insight: Flattest draw on the card — T3 best at 16.9%, T1 worst at 11.1% from 1,121 runs. The fastest dog in the field wins 22.3%, clearly ahead of the top-rated dog at 16.8% — pace over position at A3.
T1:11.1% T2:14.8% T3:16.9% T4:15.3% T5:13.3% T6:13.3%
1,121 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 325m | 350m | 500m | 525m | 570m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shronedraugh Jim | — | — | — | 0.561 | — |
| 2 | Ballintemple Bet | — | — | — | 0.557 | — |
| 3 | Leaha Jessie | — | — | 0.566 | 0.562 | — |
| 4 | Ballymac Edith | 0.551 | 0.551 | — | 0.549 | — |
| 5 | Bobo Brazil | 0.551 | — | — | 0.559 | 0.555 |
| 6 | Fat Freddie | — | — | — | 0.560 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.