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Abbeydorney/Kilflynn/Duagh Stakes Final
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Kacies Beautyb 2y 23 | - | - | 59 | - | 71 (3) | 84 (2) | 76 (2) | 70 (3) | 75 (2) | 92 (1) | 67 (4) | 82 (2) | 56 (5) | 66 (6) | 30 | 14 | 13 | - | 75 | 53 | 1 | 5/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Slippy Gavind 2y 35 | James O'Rourke — 26% R27 W7 P19 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 78 (2) | 68 (3) | 68 (3) | 82 (1) | 67 (3) | 63 (2) | 53 (4) | 36 (6) | 65 (1) | - | - | 26 | 12 | 18 | 68 | 42 | 3 | 5/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Garrison Bridged 2y 14 | - | - | 52 | - | 89 (1) | 58 (6) | 77 (4) | 73 (5) | 80 (2) | 79 (3) | 96 (1) | 56 (6) | 71 (5) | 56 (5) | - | 34 | 37 | 30 | 75 | 54 | 2 | 4/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Underdainfluenced 3y 32 | Edward O'Sullivan — 13% R8 W1 P5 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 80 (2) | 67 (4) | 82 (2) | 93 (1) | 61 (5) | 64 (3) | 89 (1) | 70 (3) | 89 (1) | 79 (2) | 67 | 48 | 60 | 18 | 77 | 50 | 5 | 2/1jf | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Millridge Patsyb 2y 23 | - | - | - | - | 91 (1) | 78 (2) | 69 (5) | 74 (2) | 65 (4) | 73 (2) | 75 (2) | 72 (3) | 50 (2) | 71 (2) | 25 | 60 | 26 | 41 | 75 | 52 | 6 | 2/1jf | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Moybella Roxyb 2y 43 | - | - | 43 | - | 69 (3) | 76 (2) | 60 (5) | 86 (1) | 71 (3) | 55 (5) | 54 (6) | 70 (2) | 62 (4) | 80 (1) | 32 | 29 | 12 | - | 69 | 41 | 4 | 5/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kacies Beauty | 31.46 | 31.46 | — | 59 | — | First 570 win-seek | |
| 3 | Garrison Bridge | 31.61 | 31.61 | 31.61 | 52 | 0.00 | Won semi 89 | |
| 2 | Slippy Gavin | 31.68 | 31.68 | — | 48 | — | Cold box | |
| 6 | Moybella Roxy | 31.78 | 31.78 | — | 43 | — | Needs more | |
| 4 | Underdainfluence | No 570 form on record — times not comparable. | — | 77 average | ||||
| 5 | Millridge Patsy | — | — | 31.30 | — | — | Won semi 91 | |
The 570 trip at Tralee adds an extra kick to the standard course and puts a premium on stamina, and at A2 grade the draw pattern is striking — trap 5 has won 27.8% of these races, far clear of any other box, while trap 2 has managed barely one win in twenty. Only a hundred-odd runs have gone through this grade and trip, so treat the pattern as a strong lean rather than gospel. This Abbeydorney/Kilflynn/Duagh Stakes Final is a cracking heat: Millridge Patsy and Garrison Bridge both won their semis with ratings of 91 and 89, and Underdainfluence brings the most solid body of A2 form in the field. Patsy, quickest through the trip last week, gets the golden box and should be prominent throughout; Underdainfluence and Garrison Bridge will be finishing hardest late. A high-class final by Tralee standards.
Won her semi-final with a 91 — the top rating of the round — and clocked 31.30 doing it, the fastest anyone in this field has gone through the 570 trip. She now draws trap 5, which has won 27.8% of races at this grade and trip, miles clear of any other box. A win and two places from two course and distance starts completes a rare hand: best recent form, best time at the trip, and the golden draw all on one dog. The thin overall sample is the only reason to keep a lid on it.
The most solid body of A2 form in the field — six consecutive runs at this grade averaging 77, never dipping below 61, with a 93 peak three starts back. Second in his semi with an 81. No trials, no grade-hopping, just honest consistency at the level. Trap 4 has been quiet at this trip and there's no recorded speed figure to compare him on, but on ratings he's the one they all have to get past late on.
A classy performer on ratings — a 75 average with a 92 in her back catalogue and consistent A1-A3 form — but she's still learning this 570 trip, with last week's third in her semi the only start at it. Her figures are built at shorter, and while the fastest of these on the raw speed reading, the stamina question is unanswered. The rails draw is fair here rather than favoured.
Second in his semi with a 78 and has rocketed from A5 to A2 company in the space of six races, form of 78-68-68 at this grade. The improvement is genuine, but he's drawn dreadfully — trap 2 has won barely one in twenty at this grade and trip — and his one run over 570 leaves the stamina case unproven too. Trainer James O'Rourke's 27% strike rate is a plus that keeps him interesting.
Won his semi-final with an 89, and he's the classiest dog in the race on paper — recent form includes A1 company and an open-class event, with a 75 average that matches anything here. His one course and distance run is that semi win, clocked at 31.61. Trap 3 is the second-best box at this trip. Every right to fight out the finish; only the pick's superior clocking and draw keep him off top spot.
Third in her semi with a 69 after a string of respectable A2 efforts, and she ran an 86 four starts back that shows the ceiling. But she's winless at this grade since arriving from A4 company, this is her first crack at 570 beyond last week, and trap 6 has been modest at the trip. Needs several of these to underperform.
Key insight: Trap 5 dominates this grade and trip at 27.8% (18 runs) with trap 3 next at 21.1%; trap 2 is nearly hopeless at 5.9%. Only 109 total runs, so the lean is strong but the sample thin — the top-rated dog converts a lowly 14.3%.
T1:15.8% T2:5.9% T3:21.1% T4:10.5% T5:27.8% T6:11.8%
109 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 570m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 570m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (570m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 325m | 525m | 550m | 570m | 750m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kacies Beauty | — | 0.554 | 0.547 | 0.552 | — |
| 2 | Slippy Gavin | — | 0.561 | — | 0.556 | — |
| 3 | Garrison Bridge | 0.550 | 0.556 | — | 0.555 | — |
| 4 | Underdainfluence | — | 0.558 | — | 0.549 | — |
| 5 | Millridge Patsy | — | 0.555 | — | 0.548 | 0.569 |
| 6 | Moybella Roxy | — | 0.559 | — | 0.558 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.