Alex's 13th Birthday Dash
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Crystal Beastd 4yREP 15 | T D Coote — 19% R521 W97 P280 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 24 (2) | 23 (2) | 27 (2) | 19 (6) | 24 (4) | 25 (2) | 22 (4) | 28 (2) | 25 (3) | 30 (1) | 42 | 44 | 42 | 42 | 24 | 30 | 2 | 8/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Savana Heklab 3yREP 9 | D Henry — 23% R90 W21 P53 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | - | 26 (2) | 27 (2) | 25 (3) | 23 (5) | 60 (5) | 63 (5) | 55 (3) | 60 (3) | - | - | 1 | 21 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 20 | 1 | 6/4F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Bombay Bingod 3yREP 18 | T D Coote — 19% R521 W97 P280 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 20 (3) | 23 (4) | 31 (1) | 25 (3) | 24 (3) | 31 (2) | 23 (3) | 20 (6) | 29 (3) | 31 (3) | 19 | 16 | 37 | 16 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 2/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Lowgate Blue Boyd 2yREP 15 | J E Hayton — 13% R24 W3 P15 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 23 (4) | 24 (3) | 25 (3) | 28 (2) | 25 (2) | 24 (3) | 21 (6) | 19 (6) | 22 (4) | 23 (5) | 13 | 24 | 20 | 13 | 24 | 20 | 3 | 15/8 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Grovenor Teddyd 2yREP 14 | T D Coote — 19% R521 W97 P280 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 36 | - | 17 (6) | 16 (4) | 17 (6) | 19 (5) | 30 (1) | 44 (4) | 44 (4) | 47 (4) | 28 (5) | - | 22 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 22 | 19 | 5 | 20/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ardnasool North | 16.29 | 16.58 | 16.48 | 55 | +0.19 | Drops from D2 | |
| 3 | Arrigle Grange | 16.36 | 16.74 | 16.81 | 47 | +0.45 | Best trap 26.8% | |
| 2 | Quality Style | 16.39 | 16.74 | 16.56 | 49 | +0.17 | 4 C&D wins | |
| 1 | Elegant Joey | 16.50 | 16.62 | 16.50 | 52 | 0.00 | Only 2 career runs | |
| 4 | Jolly Fleurs | 16.51 | 16.89 | 16.51 | 45 | 0.00 | 2nd last time |
The 280-metre dash at Sheffield is a short, sharp sprint where the charge to the first bend decides most races — slow starters simply run out of track. At D3 grade the trap pattern is pronounced: trap 3 is the standout box, winning 26.8% from 224 runs, while trap 6 (13.3%) and trap 5 (17.9%) struggle — and notably, the fastest dog on the clock tonight, Ardnasool North, is drawn in that weak trap 5. Quality Style brings the strongest winning habit at the course and distance from trap 2, unexposed Elegant Joey breaks from the rail, and Ardnasool North has the raw speed to lead them all if she pings the lids. Expect a scramble to the bend between the rail pair and the speedball, with the winner most likely whoever gets there first.
Nobody in this race wins here more often — four victories and six placings from ten course-and-distance runs is a 40% strike rate that towers over the field. She drops back to D3 after a creditable fourth in D2 company, and before that step up she had rattled off two straight wins at this grade, so this is a return to her winning level rather than a dog on the slide. All her recent form is honest graded racing. Her best time of 16.39 stands up against everything bar Ardnasool North, and unlike the speedball she is drawn on the side of the track that behaves.
The fastest in the field by a clear margin — a 16.29 best, the top speed rating, and the quickest average and last-run times too — and she arrives dropping back from D2 grade, where she was finishing mid-division. At a grade and trip where the fastest dog wins better than one in four, that speed demands respect. The catches are real though: trap 5 wins under 18% at this grade, her kennel operates at just a 6% strike rate, and she has won only twice in ten course-and-distance tries. If she pings the lids she wins; her record says she usually does not.
Just two career races, but the record reads a win and a second at exactly this grade and trip, both tidy efforts, and both proper graded contests rather than trials. Two runs is far too thin a sample to trust his numbers as established ability — he showed promise, no more — yet unexposed sorts like this can leave exposed rivals behind quickly. He breaks from the rail and matched his best time when winning last week. Respect, especially if he takes another step forward.
Drawn in the golden box — trap 3 wins nearly 27% at this grade, the best draw on the card — but she needs the draw to do a great deal of work. Two wins from ten course-and-distance runs, her recent ratings sit at the bottom of this field, and her last run was nearly half a second off her best time. Recently stepped up from D4, where most of her form was made. The trap gives her a puncher's chance, nothing more.
Second last time out and a winner twice at this course and distance, so she is competitive at the level without being a standout. Her form is all from D3 and D4 grades, honestly graded. Trainer J D Davy runs at a solid 26% strike rate, which is worth a mention. The concern is raw pace — her average times are the slowest in the field, and over 280 metres there is nowhere to hide slow early speed. Frame claims if the leaders tangle at the bend.
Key insight: The fastest dog wins 25.7% at this grade and trip — a stronger signal than the top-rated dog's 23.4%. Trap 3 is the golden box at 26.8% from 224 runs; trap 6 is a graveyard at 13.3%.
T1:19.7% T2:18.5% T3:26.8% T4:20.0% T5:17.9% T6:13.3%
1,334 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 280m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 280m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (280m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 280m | 450m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crystal Beast | 0.602 | — | — |
| 2 | Savana Hekla | 0.599 | 0.624 | 0.608 |
| 3 | Bombay Bingo | 0.601 | — | — |
| 4 | Lowgate Blue Boy | 0.602 | — | — |
| 5 | Grovenor Teddy | 0.611 | — | 0.612 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.