The Evening Continues @ Napoleons Casino Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Castlehill Giftb 3yN/R 16 | A R Upton — 9% R93 W8 P47 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | 60 | 53 (3) | 36 (5) | 42 (6) | 43 (5) | 27 (2) | 24 (5) | 39 (6) | 48 (4) | 39 (6) | 73 (1) | 13 | 14 | 25 | - | 45 | 32 | - | - | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Jims Warriord 1y 5 | K Hodson — 16% R282 W46 P145 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 49 | 73 (1) | 60 (2) | 48 (3) | 48 (5) | 45 (5) | 54 (3) | - | - | - | - | 2 | 23 | 4 | 29 | 57 | 45 | 1 | 10/11F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Darver Lassieb 4y 27 | T Bedford — 20% R111 W22 P57 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 46 | 67 (1) | 43 (5) | 43 (5) | 49 (5) | 68 (1) | 50 (4) | 52 (3) | 72 (1) | 45 (4) | 48 (5) | 28 | 24 | 8 | 31 | 54 | 44 | 4 | 9/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Autumn Lydiab 1y 6 | T D Coote — 19% R521 W97 P280 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 65 | 46 (3) | 59 (2) | 68 (1) | 27 (6) | 56 (3) | 53 (2) | 46 (3) | 60 (1) | 29 (2) | 28 (2) | 35 | 44 | 16 | 32 | 52 | 48 | 2 | 6/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Knock Zayab 2yREP 7 | T D Coote — 19% R521 W97 P280 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 47 | 67 (1) | 56 (4) | 48 (2) | 43 (5) | 55 (2) | 41 (5) | 54 (2) | 42 (5) | 53 (2) | 44 (3) | 26 | 35 | 19 | 40 | 52 | 48 | 3 | 5/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Darver Lassie | 29.82 | 30.30 | 30.05 | 54 | +0.23 | Won last time | |
| 4 | Autumn Lydia | 29.89 | 30.26 | 30.26 | 49 | +0.37 | Best bend rating | |
| 5 | Knock Zaya | 30.00 | 30.33 | 30.05 | 50 | +0.05 | Won last time | |
| 2 | Jims Warrior | 30.06 | 30.21 | 29.39 | 51 | — | HP 29.39 flattered | |
| 1 | Castlehill Gift | 30.21 | 30.42 | 30.16 | 41 | -0.05 | 0 from 4 here |
The finale comes over Sheffield's fairer 500-metre trip, where the longer run to the first bend gives held-up runners a genuine chance. A5 here is a leveller — the top-rated dog wins under 20% at these conditions, so ratings alone are barely better than a guess and the clock matters more: the fastest dog wins 21.6%. The draw stats favour trap 1 (22.8% from 416 runs) and trap 3 (21.2%), while trap 2 is the coldest box at 14.9%. Autumn Lydia has the best first-bend rating and strong early dash, so she should show the way from trap 4; Darver Lassie is the quickest in the field and finishes strongest, setting up a classic leader-versus-closer duel between those two, with last-start winner Knock Zaya lurking for the pieces.
The fastest dog in the race on both speed rating and raw clock — her 29.82 best is the only time under 29.9 in the field — at conditions where speed is the most reliable signal going. She arrives off a win, a 67-rated performance at A6 ten days ago, and her course-and-distance record is the best here: three wins and three placings from ten runs, all in honest graded racing at this level. She tends to be outpaced early and does her best work late, which Sheffield's fairer 500-metre trip accommodates, and trap 3 is one of the two productive boxes at this grade. Fast, in form, proven at the trip and drawn well.
The joint top-rated runner and the one they will all be chasing early — the best first-bend rating in the field and strong early dash from trap 4. Her recent form is rock solid: third and second in her last two at this grade, with a 68-rated win at A6 before that, plus two wins and four placings from eight course-and-distance starts. She shows sharp early pace but can weaken in the closing stages, and trap 4 is a modest box at this grade, but if she skips clear at the bend she is the one Darver Lassie must run down.
Won a handicap in style last time with a 73-rated run, comfortably his best effort in months, and he holds the best average time in the field. Two cautions: that flashy 29.39 clocking came with a handicap start, so it flatters him against tonight's level-break rivals, and he has drawn trap 2 — the worst box at this grade, winning under 15% from 402 runs. One win from six course-and-distance tries. Clearly improving, but the draw and the flattered clock temper the enthusiasm.
Dropping from A4 and A3 company, and her third last time out with a 53-rated run was a step in the right direction. But she has never troubled the judge in four course-and-distance attempts, her speed rating is the lowest in the field, and her kennel operates at a 6% strike rate. Sharp early pace gives her a shout of leading from the rail — and trap 1 is the best draw at this grade — but holding on over the full 500 metres is another matter entirely.
Won last time out at A6 with a 67-rated run and has hit the frame in six of ten course-and-distance starts, so he is always thereabouts at this level. A versatile sort who can race handy or come from off the pace, which gives him options whatever the early shape. The knock is one win from those ten local runs and a cold draw — trap 5 wins just 15% at this grade. Consistent placer who needs a career-best to win this.
Key insight: A genuinely open grade — the top-rated dog wins only 19.8% from 828 runs, barely ahead of the second-rated. The fastest dog (21.6%) is the better lean. Trap 1 leads the boxes; trap 2 is the graveyard at 14.9%.
T1:22.8% T2:14.9% T3:21.2% T4:16.3% T5:15.0% T6:20.4%
2,331 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Castlehill Gift | 62 | 17 | Fader |
2Jims Warrior | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Darver Lassie | 47 | 64 | Closer |
4Autumn Lydia | 68 | 1 | Fader |
5Knock Zaya | 50 | 54 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 280m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jims Warrior | — | 0.606 |
| 3 | Darver Lassie | — | 0.606 |
| 4 | Autumn Lydia | 0.598 | 0.605 |
| 5 | Knock Zaya | — | 0.607 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.