Slid down from A2 company through the spring and ran his best recent race when fourth at this grade last month, so the drop is slowly working. But nine runs at this course and distance without a win — and just one place — is a damning record, and his times are the slowest in the field bar none on the average. The rail draw is only middling at this grade. Honest, exposed, and hard to see winning.

The form is climbing fast — a 76-rated A6 win in mid-June, a creditable fourth on his first try at this grade last time, and places at every level on the way up. He lands the best box at the trip, the trap 3 that wins more than one in four A4 races here. The catch is the clock: his best time is three to four lengths slower than the leading pair, and rising four grades in six weeks usually finds a ceiling. Margaret Bolton's 23% strike rate and the draw make him the each-way alternative.

Ignore the last two lines of form — they came in marathon 730m events that told us nothing except that he doesn't stay. Back at his proper trip tonight, the picture is fairer: he was rated 70 at this grade in April and his 29.24 best puts him within two lengths of the leaders. The problem is the draw — trap 5 wins barely one in ten A4 races here — and one winless previous try at this course and distance. Better than his recent figures, but the box is against him.

Hasn't raced since late April — nearly three months off — and was struggling at A3 before the break, finishing sixth twice. The positives are a sharp 29.23 clocking that ranks third in this field, a drop in grade that should help, and Scott Phelan's respectable 25% strike rate. But a rusty dog from trap 6, the worst box at this grade, needs everything to go right. More likely to need the run.