The Lucky Last 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Fun In Bostonb 1y 33 | Michael Malone — 36% R11 W4 P6 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | - | 82 (6) | 65 (1) | 56 (3) | 36 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 19 | 2 | - | 23 | 63 | 39 | 1 | 6/4 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Russellstown Mand 2y 24 | James Melia — 13% R15 W2 P9 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 69 (2) | 62 (5) | 84 (1) | 54 (5) | 81 (1) | 54 (4) | 80 (1) | 34 (5) | 51 (3) | - | - | 27 | - | 51 | 66 | 37 | 2 | 3/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Kilgowan Catd 2y 24 | - | - | 45 | - | 68 (2) | 48 (5) | 70 (4) | 75 (2) | 55 (5) | 72 (3) | 40 (6) | - | - | - | 15 | 5 | - | 20 | 62 | 40 | 5 | 3/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Home Oonaghb 2y 13 | - | - | 48 | - | 78 (3) | 70 (4) | 74 (4) | 72 (2) | 96 (1) | 77 (3) | 90 (1) | 92 (1) | 68 (2) | 89 (1) | 30 | - | 37 | 40 | 79 | 46 | 3 | 4/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Kerlogue Jetd 2y 33 | - | - | 54 | - | 73 (4) | 65 (2) | 86 (6) | 61 (3) | 89 (4) | 74 (2) | 58 (3) | 63 (3) | 46 (3) | - | 10 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 71 | 40 | 6 | 5/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Badminton Haydnd 2y 34 | Donal Murphy — 0% R3 W0 P2 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 86 (2) | 73 (4) | 68 (1) | 47 (3) | 54 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | 3 | 15 | - | - | 69 | 31 | 4 | 1/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fun In Boston | 29.00 | 29.34 | 29.00 | 56 | 0.00 | Up from A5 | |
| 5 | Kerlogue Jet | 29.03 | 29.18 | 29.27 | 54 | +0.24 | A1 dropper | |
| 4 | Home Oonagh | 29.05 | 29.39 | 29.38 | 48 | +0.33 | Model pick | |
| 3 | Kilgowan Cat | 29.05 | 29.38 | 29.58 | 45 | +0.53 | 2nd at A3 LTO | |
| 2 | Russellstown Man | 29.19 | 29.38 | 29.21 | 48 | +0.02 | 3 wins in 9 | |
| 6 | Badminton Haydn | 29.29 | 29.29 | 29.29 | 48 | 0.00 | Sprint form lately |
The classiest race on the card, and one of the few Newbridge conditions where the figures can actually be trusted — at A2 over 525m the top-rated dog wins a healthy 28.6% and the fastest dog 27.7%, with trap 4 the best box at 23.3% from 43 runs and the rail the worst at barely one in nine. Home Oonagh ticks the two biggest boxes at once: the best form in the race by a wide margin — she hasn't run below a 70-rated performance in six starts against this exact grade — and the golden trap 4 draw. The pace angle is intriguing though. Fun In Boston is the fastest dog in the field and clocked a career-best 29.00 two starts back, but he's jumping two grades from A5 and has to do it from the coldest box at this level. Kerlogue Jet drops down from a summer chasing A1 company and owns the sharpest average time in the race — if he takes the early lead from mid-track, the race shape could set up for him. Russellstown Man and Kilgowan Cat both arrive off seconds at A3 and keep this honest from the inside boxes.
The form pick and the draw pick rolled into one. She hasn't run below a 70-rated performance in six straight starts against A2 company — third, fourth, fourth, second, first, third — including a 96-rated demolition in May, and her form average sits eight points clear of the next best in this field. Tonight she draws trap 4, the best box at this grade, winning nearly one in four A2 races here. Her raw speed rating is mid-pack, which is the one hole in the profile, but her actual times — 29.05 at best, consistently around 29.4 — are within a length of anything here, and nobody in this field brings anything like her level of sustained quality at this exact grade. At the one Newbridge condition where the top-rated dog actually delivers, she's the percentage call.
Spent the spring racing A1 company — the top grade — and drops to A2 tonight off two respectable efforts over longer trips. His average time of 29.18 is the sharpest in this field, his 89-rated peak in May shows the engine, and class droppers with his profile win these races all the time. The negatives: no win in his last ten, two course and distance starts without success, and trap 5 is a below-par box at this grade. If he breaks on terms and leads into the bend, he could be the one they can't peg back — the clear danger.
The fastest dog in the race — his 29.00 last time out is the quickest clocking in this field and Michael Malone's runners have been winning at an outstanding 40%. But the caveats stack up: that 29.00 came in an A5 defeat where he was turned over at cramped odds of 2/7, tonight is a two-grade jump to company he has never faced, and he's drawn in trap 1, which wins barely one in nine A2 races here. Blistering speed, wrong box, big class question.
Three wins in his last nine and second at A3 latest — a dog in genuinely good heart stepping up from a productive spell at A3 and A4 level. He's proven over this course and distance with a win and two places from four tries, and his last run was within a whisker of his best time. Trap 2 is a below-average box at this grade and he's a couple of lengths shy of the fastest here, but he's the sort who outruns his numbers when the race gets rough.
Second at A3 last time and has been mixing it at A2 and A3 all year without winning — seven visible starts, no victories, though rarely far away. He's up half a second on his last run compared to his best and has never won in three course and distance tries. Trap 3 is a fair box at this grade and he'll be thereabouts, but on a card where the top two have stronger claims he looks one for the places again.
An interesting puzzle — his last two starts were sprints at S2, rated 86 and 73, and he was a short-priced favourite both times, so connections clearly hold him in regard. His 525m record here is solid too: a win and two places from three course and distance runs in the spring. But he hasn't raced beyond 325m since April, and the question is whether the stamina is still tuned for two extra bends. Trap 6 is a decent box at this grade; the fitness-at-trip question keeps him at outsider odds.
Key insight: A2 is one of the few conditions here where the ratings work: the top-rated dog wins 28.6% (49 runs) and the fastest wins 27.7% (47 runs). Trap 4 is the best box at 23.3% and trap 1 the worst at 10.9% — tonight the top-rated dog is in trap 4 and the fastest dog is in trap 1, a clean split of the two signals.
T1:10.9% T2:13.6% T3:17.8% T4:23.3% T5:14.6% T6:20.5%
263 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 325m | 525m | 550m | 575m | 600m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fun In Boston | 0.569 | 0.559 | — | — | — |
| 2 | Russellstown Man | 0.560 | 0.562 | — | — | — |
| 3 | Kilgowan Cat | — | 0.562 | — | — | — |
| 4 | Home Oonagh | — | 0.560 | — | — | — |
| 5 | Kerlogue Jet | — | 0.556 | 0.557 | 0.557 | — |
| 6 | Badminton Haydn | 0.553 | 0.562 | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.