The Tony Courtney 75th Birthday Stake
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Glenview Ladyb 1y 34 | James Melia — 13% R15 W2 P9 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 71 (3) | 71 (2) | 51 (5) | 50 (4) | 64 (1) | 50 (2) | - | - | - | - | 1 | 19 | 10 | 14 | 61 | 27 | 1 | 2/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Kittys Girlb 2y 33 | Keith Powell — 17% R12 W2 P4 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 48 (6) | 58 (3) | 54 (4) | 56 (4) | 69 (3) | 84 (1) | 63 (5) | 54 (6) | 73 (3) | 49 (4) | - | 15 | 11 | 9 | 59 | 30 | 2 | 3/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Kilgowan Chanelb 2y 42 | - | - | 57 | - | 60 (2) | 67 (2) | 65 (3) | 82 (1) | 64 (2) | 54 (5) | 49 (4) | 35 (5) | 62 (1) | 51 (2) | - | 35 | 31 | 37 | 62 | 34 | 3 | 6/4 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Coolhill Bla Blab 2y 24 | - | - | 48 | - | 57 (4) | 47 (5) | 67 (2) | 79 (1) | 53 (5) | 55 (5) | 66 (3) | 79 (1) | 48 (6) | - | 33 | 33 | 42 | 28 | 60 | 29 | 4 | 3/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Home Ciarab 4y 32 | - | - | 51 | - | 72 (2) | 47 (6) | 68 (2) | 80 (1) | 67 (3) | 62 (3) | 54 (4) | 84 (1) | 50 (6) | 52 (5) | 47 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 65 | 33 | 5 | 3/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Highview Stakesd 3y 25 | - | - | 31 | - | 60 (4) | 54 (5) | 56 (3) | 40 (6) | 56 (4) | 51 (5) | 55 (4) | 57 (5) | 45 (6) | 45 (6) | 2 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 53 | 17 | 6 | 4/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kittys Girl | 29.20 | 29.68 | 29.86 | 53 | +0.66 | Best long gone | |
| 3 | Kilgowan Chanel | 29.34 | 29.56 | 29.65 | 57 | +0.31 | Model pick | |
| 4 | Coolhill Bla Bla | 29.35 | 29.74 | 29.99 | 48 | +0.64 | 2 C&D wins | |
| 5 | Home Ciara | 29.43 | 29.72 | 29.70 | 51 | +0.27 | Off since Dec | |
| 1 | Glenview Lady | 29.66 | 29.85 | 29.66 | 46 | 0.00 | Best trap | |
| 6 | Highview Stakes | 29.81 | 30.05 | 30.21 | 31 | +0.40 | 0 wins from 10 C&D |
Newbridge's 525m is a speed-first trip where the clock beats the ratings — the top-rated dog at A5 wins a miserable one race in eight here, so blindly following the figures is a losing game, while trap 1 (21%) is the best box and trap 5 (12.5%) the worst across 278 A5 runs. Tonight's twist is that five of the six runners are dropping in from A4, so the grade collapse makes the usual form lines tangle. Kilgowan Chanel brings the fastest rating and the most reliable recent times — she's been running seconds at A4 all summer and simply needs this easier company to convert. Glenview Lady is the shape danger: two big career-best efforts in June, the best draw in the race, and proven over this course and distance. Home Ciara has the best form average of all but hasn't raced since December — seven months off is a leap of faith at any level. Kittys Girl owns the fastest single time in the field but has been drifting backwards since the winter.
Has spent the entire year racing A4 company — a grade above tonight — and finishing second, again and again: runner-up in both June starts and rated in the sixties or better in five of her last six. Tonight she finally gets the drop into A5 with the fastest rating in the field and the best average time, three lengths clear of most rivals on the stopwatch. The knock is that she's a serial bridesmaid, but bridesmaids dropped in grade tend to become brides, and at a track where the clock beats the ratings her times are the most trustworthy currency here. Modest mid-track draw is the only quibble.
Produced back-to-back career-best efforts in June — second and third at A4, a grade above tonight — and now drops into A5 with the best draw in the race, the rail box that wins more than one in five here at this grade. She knows the track too, with six course and distance runs including a win. Her raw times are three or four lengths slower than the principals, which is the concern, but she's the one in the field whose form is peaking right now. The main threat.
Owns the fastest single time in this field — 29.20 back in her prime — but that clocking is from December and her recent runs have been drifting the wrong way, last of six at A4 latest. Nine course and distance runs have yielded just one win, and she's now two-thirds of a second off her own best. The engine was clearly there once; the recent evidence says it isn't firing now.
The course specialist of the field — ten runs at this course and distance with two wins and three places, including an A5 win here in April. He's been freshened since late May and drops back from A4, both reasonable angles. But his last two runs were rated well below his spring peak and his average times have slipped to four lengths off the leaders. Each-way appeal on his record here; needs to bounce back to his April self to win.
On raw ability she might be the best dog in this race — her form average tops the field and she was second at A3 when last seen. The catch is enormous: that last run was in December, seven months ago. Dogs simply don't hold race fitness through that kind of absence, and she has to return in the worst box at the trip, the trap 5 draw that wins barely one in eight at this grade. Respect the ability, fear the rust.
Ten course and distance runs without ever making the first two tells its own story, and his times back it up — the slowest in the field on best, average and latest, a good six lengths adrift of the principals. He ran his best recent race last time out at A4, so he arrives in reasonable heart, but at this track the stopwatch is king and his simply doesn't tick fast enough.
Key insight: The top-rated dog wins only 12.9% at A5 here — one of the weakest ratings signals anywhere — while the second-fastest dog on the clock wins 25%. Trap 1 is the best box at 21.3% from 47 runs. Trust the stopwatch and the draw, not the ratings.
T1:21.3% T2:15.6% T3:14.9% T4:15.2% T5:12.5% T6:17.8%
278 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 325m | 400m | 525m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glenview Lady | — | — | 0.567 |
| 2 | Kittys Girl | 0.562 | — | 0.565 |
| 3 | Kilgowan Chanel | — | 0.558 | 0.563 |
| 4 | Coolhill Bla Bla | — | — | 0.566 |
| 5 | Home Ciara | — | — | 0.566 |
| 6 | Highview Stakes | — | — | 0.572 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.